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Re: pretty cool paper re "myth of Internet growth numbers"
by Sean Donelan 03 Dec '00

03 Dec '00

On Sun, 03 December 2000, Andrew Odlyzko wrote: > Since you have have chosen to ignore kc's "meta-operational content > warning" > > On Sat, 02 December 2000, k claffy wrote: > > [meta-operational content warning. > > followup thread probably belongs on some other list] > > > > andrew odlyzko's latest > > http://www.cisp.org/imp/november_2000/odlyzko/11_00odlyzko.htm > > I feel entitled to respond. > > First of all, your comments all appear to be based on the paper you > cite, namely > > http://www.research.att.com/~amo/doc/high.network.cost.txt > > This is an entirely different paper on a different subject. (Moreover, > just like the article kc cites, it is just a short overview of more > detailed papers.) It is sort of like kc saying "Sean's new-born son > is cute," and my responding "But his two-year old daughter is ugly." > Either statement may be right or wrong, but there is little connection > between them. I skipped over that paper because the basic topic in your paper "Myth of Internet growth Numbers" was covered extensively on this list when the "doubling every 90 days" number was first published a couple of years ago. I think the original source was traced back to a comment made by Mike O'Dell at UUNET. If I recall the conclusion at the time was, at best, the comment was taken very much out of context. You point out that politicians and venture capitalists continue to cite the number to support their projects. Ok, I suppose someone had to say the emperor isn't wearing clothes. But I thought you had some more interesting ideas in the other papers. I think the growth claim is a bit like the last place television channel announcing "they have the fastest growing newscast." It is much easier to double a small number than a large number. But eventually you run out of new viewers. The interesting question isn't why is the Internet acting like a Ponzi scheme. The interesting question is when will the Internet growth curve change from going straight up to an S-shaped curve? Every once in a while, someone will plot the Internet growth curve against the television growth curve, FM radio growth curve, CD player growth curve, etc. The problem is we can't compare them yet, because we don't know where the bend in the Internet growth curve is, yet. So, does you data show the knee was in 1995-1996? Or are we still on the exponential part of the curve? If we are past the knee, its bad news for all the carriers, new and old, since stock price is mostly based on future growth expectation.

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Re: pretty cool paper re "myth of Internet growth numbers"
by Sean Donelan 03 Dec '00

03 Dec '00

On Sat, 02 December 2000, k claffy wrote: > [meta-operational content warning. > followup thread probably belongs on some other list] > > andrew odlyzko's latest > http://www.cisp.org/imp/november_2000/odlyzko/11_00odlyzko.htm http://www.research.att.com/~amo/doc/high.network.cost.txt I think Andrew has some apples and oranges mixed together in some of his papers. For example, he compares the utilitization of telephone trunk circuits (33% busy) with corporate LANs (3-4% busy). But ignores the typical corporate PBX, which sits idle most of the night and weekend. I suspect if you compared the corporate LAN with the corporate PBX, the utilitization rates would be similar. And in most companies, the availability of good measurements for intra-PBX calling and intra-LAN usage would be hard to find. Of course, that would open the whole can of worms of why do companies buy their own PBX's instead of using Centrex service from the phone company? I also expect if you compare similar points on the circuit hierarchy, similar utilizations would appear. Inter-POP circuits would be similar to Inter-CO trunks. Circuits between providers would be overloaded in the same way. And even inter-continental circuits would be similar between voice and data. But worst of all Andrew uses the *average* utilization, which is a poor way to measure utilization of data networks. Even utilization is a bit of a red herring because different absolute bandwidths. Networks (voice or data) are not designed using average utilization. Instead most designers use some type of peak utilization (95%, Mother's Day, etc). So what happens when a network gets near its peak utilization? With the voice network you get more busy signals. With the data network you get slower transfers. He also states the the traditional phone network continues to be more reliable than the Internet, which in my experience is an artifact of how the statistics are collected. If I called United Airlines' reservation number this year, I would think the telephone network reliability was pretty bad too. Instead the telephone network doesn't include end-to-end reachability in its reliability. But Internet measures such as Keynote do include end-to-end reachability.

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pretty cool paper re "myth of Internet growth numbers"
by k claffy 02 Dec '00

02 Dec '00

[meta-operational content warning. followup thread probably belongs on some other list] andrew odlyzko's latest http://www.cisp.org/imp/november_2000/odlyzko/11_00odlyzko.htm fwiw k

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Call for Presentations - Atlanta
by Susan R. Harris 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CALL FOR PRESENTATIONS * * NANOG 21 * * February 18 - 20, 2001 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * The North American Network Operators Group (NANOG) will hold its 21st meeting in Atlanta, GA, between February 18-20, 2001. The meeting will be hosted by Riverstone Networks. NANOG conferences provide a forum for the coordination and dissemination of technical information related to large-scale (i.e., national/international) Internet backbone networking technologies and operational practices. NANOG meetings, held three times each year, include two days of short presentations, plus afternoon/evening tutorial sessions. Meetings are informal, with an emphasis on relevance to current backbone engineering practices. The conference draws around 600 participants, mainly consisting of engineering staff from large national service providers, and members of the research and education community. Now in its fifth year, NANOG evolved from the NSFNET "regional-techs" meetings, where technical staff from the regional networks met to discuss operational issues of common concern. With the emergence of the commercial Internet, NANOG meetings evolved to include a broader base of providers, network operators, and researchers. The meeting will be held at the Renaissance Washington DC Hotel. For more information about NANOG meetings, schedules, and logistics, see: http://www.nanog.org ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CALL FOR PRESENTATIONS NANOG invites presentations on backbone engineering, coordination, and research topics. Presentations should highlight issues relating to technology already deployed or soon to be deployed in core Internet backbones and exchange points. Previous meetings have included presentations on: - Backbone traffic engineering - Coordination of inter-provider QoS - Deployment experience with queueing disciplines (CAR, RED) - Inter-provider security and routing protocol authentication - Routing scalability in backbone infrastructures - Security issues for the Internet core - Routing policy specification and backbone router configuration - Building large-scale measurement infrastructure - Cooperative inter-provider caching - Alternatives to hot-potato routing - Recommendations on queue management and congestion avoidance - Experience with differentiated services - Reports from next-generation networks (Internet2, CA*net, etc.) - Inter-domain multicast deployment - Backbone network failure analysis Tutorials have covered topics such as: - BGP case studies - MPLS fundamentals - External route selection - IP multicast technologies - Distributed content caching in large IP networks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HOW TO PRESENT Submit an informal one- or two-paragraph abstract describing the presentation in email to nanog-support(a)nanog.org. The deadline for proposals is January 8, 2001. While the majority of speaking slots will be filled by January 8, a limited number of slots will be available after that date for topics that are exceptionally timely and important. Submissions will be reviewed by the NANOG Program Committee, and presenters will be notified of acceptance by January 22, 2001 NANOG also welcomes suggestions/recommendations for tutorials, panels and other presentation topics. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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The Cidr Report
by Tony Bates 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

This is an auto-generated mail on Fri Dec 1 12:00:00 PST 2000 It is not checked before it leaves my workstation. However, hopefully you will find this report interesting and will take the time to look through this to see if you can improve the amount of aggregation you perform. The report is split into sections: 0) General Status List the route table history for the last week, list any possibly bogus routes seen and give some status on ASes. 1) Gains by aggregating at the origin AS level This lists the "Top 30" players who if they decided to aggregate their announced classful prefixes at the origin AS level could make a significant difference in the reduction of the current size of the Internet routing table. This calculation does not take into account the inclusion of holes when forming an aggregate so it is possible even larger reduction should be possible. 2) Weekly Delta A summary of the last weeks changes in terms of withdrawn and added routes. Please note that this is only a snapshot but does give some indication of ASes participating in CIDR. Clearly, it is generally a good thing to see a large amont of withdrawls. 3) Interesting aggregates Interesting here means not an aggregate made as a set of classful routes. Thanks to xara.net for giving me access to their routing tables once a day. Please send any comments about this report directly to me. Check http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr-report.html for a daily update of this report. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CIDR REPORT for 01Dec00 0) General Status Table History ------------- Date Prefixes 241100 92527 251100 92668 261100 92623 271100 92643 281100 92681 291100 92893 301100 93098 011200 93154 Check http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.plot.html for a plot of the table history. Possible Bogus Routes --------------------- *** Bogus 91.16.23.0/24 from AS11770 *** Bogus 219.219.219.0 from AS2563 AS Summary ---------- 1) Gains by aggregating at the origin AS level --- 01Dec00 --- ASnum NetsNow NetsCIDR NetGain % Gain Description For the rest of the previous weeks gain information please see http://www.employees.org:80/~tbates/cidr-report.html 2) Weekly Delta Please see http://www.employees.org:80/~tbates/cidr-report.html for this part of the report 3) Interesting aggregates Please see http://www.employees.org:80/~tbates/cidr-report.html for this part of the report

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Network Availability Report
by Jason Lixfeld 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

I'm looking for some kind of tool that can generate a report on network availability. For instance; this utility would run on a server and perform tests to other hosts and routers across the network. The usual Network Monitoring Tool tests like ping, port response, etc but also things like throughput between monitoring host and destination, packet-loss and a total percentage of availability for that host. Obviously the availability "number" would be dynamic based on the results of the tests and how the user configures the impact of those tests against the available percentage. Has anyone seen anything like this in one nice little package? What I'm going to do is give the head honchos a URL where all they have to do is click on a portion of our network and read off the uptime percentage. Thx!

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RE: Network Availability Report
by Kevin_Badeen＠harte-hanks.com 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

Here is a spreadsheet with a drill down of diffrent monitoring solutions which we have tested. Its pretty in depth so enjoy :)(See attached file: monitorc.xls) Kevin Badeen Unix Administrator Harte-Hanks Response Management 512.434.5999 Tel 877.446.5548 Pag |--------+-----------------------> | | Jason Lixfeld| | | <jlixfeld@tea| | | m.look.ca> | | | | | | 12/01/2000 | | | 10:10 AM | | | | |--------+-----------------------> >---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | To: "'Kevin_Badeen(a)harte-hanks.com '" <Kevin_Badeen(a)harte-hanks.com>, Jason Lixfeld <jlixfeld(a)team.look.ca> | | cc: "'nanog(a)nanog.org '" <nanog(a)nanog.org> | | Subject: RE: Network Availability Report | >---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| Depends on how well it works, as far as I'm concerned. -----Original Message----- From: Kevin_Badeen(a)harte-hanks.com To: Jason Lixfeld Cc: nanog(a)nanog.org; owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Sent: 01/12/00 11:06 AM Subject: Re: Network Availability Report How much momney do you want to spend? Kevin Badeen Unix Administrator Harte-Hanks Response Management |--------+-----------------------> | | Jason Lixfeld| | | <jlixfeld@tea| | | m.look.ca> | | | Sent by: | | | owner-nanog@m| | | erit.edu | | | | | | | | | 12/01/2000 | | | 09:59 AM | | | | |--------+-----------------------> >----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | To: "'nanog(a)nanog.org'" <nanog(a)nanog.org> | | cc: | | Subject: Network Availability Report | >----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------| I'm looking for some kind of tool that can generate a report on network availability. For instance; this utility would run on a server and perform tests to other hosts and routers across the network. The usual Network Monitoring Tool tests like ping, port response, etc but also things like throughput between monitoring host and destination, packet-loss and a total percentage of availability for that host. Obviously the availability "number" would be dynamic based on the results of the tests and how the user configures the impact of those tests against the available percentage. Has anyone seen anything like this in one nice little package? What I'm going to do is give the head honchos a URL where all they have to do is click on a portion of our network and read off the uptime percentage. Thx! ------------------------------------------------------------------------ - This email server is running an evaluation copy of the MailShield anti- spam software. Please contact your email administrator if you have any questions about this message. MailShield product info: www.mailshield.com

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RE: Network Availability Report
by Jason Lixfeld 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

Depends on how well it works, as far as I'm concerned. -----Original Message----- From: Kevin_Badeen(a)harte-hanks.com To: Jason Lixfeld Cc: nanog(a)nanog.org; owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Sent: 01/12/00 11:06 AM Subject: Re: Network Availability Report How much momney do you want to spend? Kevin Badeen Unix Administrator Harte-Hanks Response Management |--------+-----------------------> | | Jason Lixfeld| | | <jlixfeld@tea| | | m.look.ca> | | | Sent by: | | | owner-nanog@m| | | erit.edu | | | | | | | | | 12/01/2000 | | | 09:59 AM | | | | |--------+-----------------------> >----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | To: "'nanog(a)nanog.org'" <nanog(a)nanog.org> | | cc: | | Subject: Network Availability Report | >----------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------| I'm looking for some kind of tool that can generate a report on network availability. For instance; this utility would run on a server and perform tests to other hosts and routers across the network. The usual Network Monitoring Tool tests like ping, port response, etc but also things like throughput between monitoring host and destination, packet-loss and a total percentage of availability for that host. Obviously the availability "number" would be dynamic based on the results of the tests and how the user configures the impact of those tests against the available percentage. Has anyone seen anything like this in one nice little package? What I'm going to do is give the head honchos a URL where all they have to do is click on a portion of our network and read off the uptime percentage. Thx! ------------------------------------------------------------------------ - This email server is running an evaluation copy of the MailShield anti- spam software. Please contact your email administrator if you have any questions about this message. MailShield product info: www.mailshield.com

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Re: Network Availability Report
by Kevin_Badeen＠harte-hanks.com 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

How much momney do you want to spend? Kevin Badeen Unix Administrator Harte-Hanks Response Management |--------+-----------------------> | | Jason Lixfeld| | | <jlixfeld@tea| | | m.look.ca> | | | Sent by: | | | owner-nanog@m| | | erit.edu | | | | | | | | | 12/01/2000 | | | 09:59 AM | | | | |--------+-----------------------> >---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | To: "'nanog(a)nanog.org'" <nanog(a)nanog.org> | | cc: | | Subject: Network Availability Report | >---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| I'm looking for some kind of tool that can generate a report on network availability. For instance; this utility would run on a server and perform tests to other hosts and routers across the network. The usual Network Monitoring Tool tests like ping, port response, etc but also things like throughput between monitoring host and destination, packet-loss and a total percentage of availability for that host. Obviously the availability "number" would be dynamic based on the results of the tests and how the user configures the impact of those tests against the available percentage. Has anyone seen anything like this in one nice little package? What I'm going to do is give the head honchos a URL where all they have to do is click on a portion of our network and read off the uptime percentage. Thx!

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GPO web site - supremecourtus.gov
by Sean Donelan 01 Dec '00

01 Dec '00

It appears the Government Printing Office is in the eye of the storm again on Friday. The GPO hosts the US Supreme Court web site, and if you remember GPO also distributed the Starr report. Its will be interesting to see how much the GPO has learned, and how well they handle the interest in the website on Friday. Good Luck Genuity.

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