- NANOG - lists.nanog.org

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by None 13 Jul '07

13 Jul '07

0 (EDT) X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at merit.edu Received: from trapdoor.merit.edu ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (trapdoor.merit.edu [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id z96WVNt9tUIt for <nanog-outgoing(a)trapdoor.merit.edu>; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:56:09 -0400 (EDT) Received: by trapdoor.merit.edu (Postfix, from userid 56) id 986804DF29; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:56:09 -0400 (EDT) Delivered-To: nanog(a)trapdoor.merit.edu X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at merit.edu Received: from trapdoor.merit.edu ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (trapdoor.merit.edu [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id Dwdd4cJcajCr for <nanog(a)trapdoor.merit.edu>; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:55:41 -0400 (EDT) Received: from mozart.merit.edu (mozart.merit.edu [198.108.95.9]) by trapdoor.merit.edu (Postfix) with ESMTP id 86AB04DFA7 for <nanog(a)trapdoor.merit.edu>; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:55:25 -0400 (EDT) Received: from chopin.merit.edu (razorgate.merit.edu [198.108.95.8]) by mozart.merit.edu (MOS 3.8.2-GA) with ESMTP id AJY22458; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:56:58 -0400 (EDT) Received: from Corp-SMTP2.sungard.com (corp-smtp.sungard.com [216.203.6.23]) by chopin.merit.edu (MOS 3.8.2-GA) with ESMTP id AFK47837; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:56:58 -0400 (EDT) In-Reply-To: <21915.1184340352(a)turing-police.cc.vt.edu> To: nanog(a)nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 7.0 August 18, 2005 Message-ID: <OF45E950D8.4930B35D-ON85257317.006053EE-85257317.00629AA1@sungard. com> From: Keegan.Holley(a)sungard.com Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 13:57:01 -0400 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Corp-SMTP2/SunGard(Release 6.5.4|March 27, 2005) at 07/13/2007 01:56:03 PM, Serialize complete at 07/13/2007 01:56:03 PM Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=_alternative 00629A9F85257317_= " Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A09020A.4697BD94.0150:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 61 This is a multipart message in MIME format. --=_alternative 00629A9F85257317_= Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Maybe I'm missing something as I'm not the smartest guy on this list, but what exactly did this prove? ISP's aren't going to start handing out home connections at 40G per or even 1G. The best pipe they can use between ISP's is probably going to be the same 40-G blade so even at 500M per they would only be able to sell a few million of these before they run out of bandwidth. Even as a selling point there are only a few (relatively) companies in the world that could make us of such a beast and if cisco (or Juniper) hasn't called all of them and asked if they want to trade in that ONS contraption for DWDM and IP in one box they are missing something. Although, a picture of Peter Lothberg in his mothers basement standing next to a CRS-1 and maybe 8am Margera would make a better commercial than the one with the kids. --=_alternative 00629A9F85257317_= Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" <br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Maybe I'm missing something as I'm not the smartest guy on this list, but what exactly did this prove?  ISP's aren't going to start handing out home connections at 40G per or even 1G.  The best pipe they can use between ISP's is probably going to be the same 40-G blade so even at 500M per they would only be able to sell a few million of these before they run out of bandwidth.  Even as a selling  point there are only a few (relatively) companies in the world that could make us of such a beast and if cisco (or Juniper) hasn't called all of them and asked if they want to trade in that ONS contraption for DWDM and IP in one box they are missing something.  Although, a picture of Peter Lothberg in his mothers basement standing next to a CRS-1 and maybe 8am Margera would make a better commercial than the one with the kids. </font> <br> <br> --=_alternative 00629A9F85257317_=--

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]) by chopin.merit.edu (MOS 3.8.2-GA) with ESMTP id AFK39521; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:25:52 -0400 (EDT) Received: from turing-police.cc.vt.edu (turing-police.cc.vt.edu [127.0.0.1]) by turing-police.cc.vt.edu (8.14.1/8.14.1) with ESMTP id l6DFPq2K021917 ; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:25:52 -0400 X-Mailer: exmh version 2.7.2 01/07/2005 with nmh-1.2 To: Leigh Porter <leigh.porter(a)ukbroadband.com> Cc: Brandon Butterworth <brandon(a)rd.bbc.co.uk>, nanog(a)nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted In-Reply-To: Your message of "Fri, 13 Jul 2007 00:19:08 BST." <4696B6EC.3050305(a)ukbroadband.com> From: Valdis.Kletnieks(a)vt.edu References: <200707122141.WAA06503(a)sunf10.rd.bbc.co.uk> <4696B6EC.3050305(a)ukbroadband.com> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/signed; boundary="==_Exmh_1184340352_3376P"; micalg=pgp-sha1; protocol="application/pgp-signature" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:25:52 -0400 Message-ID: <21915.1184340352(a)turing-police.cc.vt.edu> Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A09020B.469799EF.0126:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 60 --==_Exmh_1184340352_3376P Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii On Fri, 13 Jul 2007 00:19:08 BST, Leigh Porter said: > I see a global demand for perhaps 5 CRS-1s ;-) To be fair, the original of said comment has to be taken in context. If he were alive today, he'd probably say "There's a world market for maybe 5 fully max-config'ed Blue Gene systems". --==_Exmh_1184340352_3376P Content-Type: application/pgp-signature -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.7 (GNU/Linux) Comment: Exmh version 2.5 07/13/2001 iD8DBQFGl5mAcC3lWbTT17ARAtMlAKDhUiAVTO+RQGyXAwfF96uZ3c84EQCaAkEx cbHhW5SlZAZGVT7xffAod4Q= =7wir -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- --==_Exmh_1184340352_3376P--

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maVrGwPZaz4jdoIjJ9A4hBgzSq+yl6JBFNhTKV8I+SwjkHYfgGsG5cQZCGWAu9IGCjf81to60Uyn1BXV QafOGul622fGOIeD74S6w= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=beta; h=received:message-id:date:from:to:subject:cc:in-reply-to:mime-version:c ontent-type:references; b=ggKI5Nz/m2jhmHtIe8X+DX8gcJxujs/Ohm+0cDbkt9UUW94IzYNVlX/SW3/9FzUh/xfX/T t9g9kR7IaYCbljdVHFsbwuukXaeuBrd4InSLp+niAgf/qn4OIjjNakLT/mN5PpvBnh/MONsGoYM2BRnF SRzf2XBOR+3FfE3xACR0Y= Received: by 10.82.136.4 with SMTP id j4mr1842820bud.1184329276534; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 05:21:16 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.82.172.9 with HTTP; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 05:21:16 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <7bb79a490707130521i2b36be3l6143f05c01a8f2b0(a)mail.gmail.com> Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 08:21:16 -0400 From: "micky coughes" <coughes(a)gmail.com> To: "Robert Blayzor" <rblayzor(a)inoc.net> Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted Cc: nanog(a)nanog.org In-Reply-To: <46975F0F.4030707(a)inoc.net> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_31524_28635658.1184329276318" References: <12997.1184264272(a)sa.vix.com> <20070712133910.B8475(a)sprockets.gibbard.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407(a)inoc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807(a)inoc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101(a)bogus.com> <4696D017.7010100(a)inoc.net> <7bb79a490707122006g767c3d42u88e84d5782545355(a)mail.gmail.com> <46975F0F.4030707(a)inoc.net> Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A090202.46976F28.0126:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 59 ------=_Part_31524_28635658.1184329276318 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline On 7/13/07, Robert Blayzor <rblayzor(a)inoc.net> wrote: > > > micky coughes wrote: > > I can see that *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise. > > Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade > > to a native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into the > > router with a minimal effort. There was a post here from someone that > > was there that explained how simple it was. This is HUGE! This has > > the potential to completely disrupt telco transport dinosaur groups > > *and* reshape the future. Taking it to his mom's house is just a poke > > in the telco eye, he is making fun of them. This then begs the question > > why can they do it between their facilities? If one guy can do it to a > > *house* it must not be that hard. However, telcos with transport groups > > of 1000s can't pull this off, this little project states volumes. > > > There may be some telco's out there that don't know these types of > technologies are out there. But for many, they are quiet aware. The > fact is 10G seems a lot more economically feasible right now. Maybe if > 40G, OC768 WDM line cards didn't cost over a quarter million dollars > each there would be more deployments of it. The rate and cost of > facility upgrades are far surpassing the means to make the ROI models > work. > > -Robert > Of course they know 40G exists, read the press releases. It is how it is implemented is the intersting thing. Instead of relpacing all of DWDM systems from 10->40G it looks like it was done to *one* window. Go run the nummbers on the follwoing models: 1. Replace 10G system to 40G + assorted new mux gear for existing circuits + 40G router card + opex 2. Remove one transponder + stratalight + 40G router card + opex 3. Existing 10G system + silly iMux 4x10G + 40G router card + opex (zero gain in system capacity) 4. Remove one transponder + 40G DWDM router card + opex (the opex on this one is huge because you start to elimiated a large number of bodies to maintain #1, #2 or #3) If you work for a telco go to your transport group and suggest #4 and listen to their bell shaped heads ring. ------=_Part_31524_28635658.1184329276318 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline <br><br> <div><span class="gmail_quote">On 7/13/07, <b class="gmail_sendername">Robert Bl ayzor</b> <<a href="mailto:rblayzor@inoc.net">rblayzor(a)inoc.net</a>> wrote :</span> <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0. 8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid"><br>micky coughes wrote:<br>> I can see tha t *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise.<br> > Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade<br> > to a native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into the<br >> router with a minimal effort.  There was a post here from someon e that <br>> was there that explained how simple it was.   This is HUGE!&n bsp; This has<br>> the potential to completely disrupt telco transport d inosaur groups<br>> *and* reshape the future.  Taking it to his mom 's house is just a poke <br>> in the telco eye, he is making fun of them.  This then begs t he question<br>> why can they do it between their facilities?  If o ne guy can do it to a<br>> *house* it must not be that hard.  Howev er, telcos with transport groups <br>> of 1000s can't pull this off, this little project states volumes.<b r><br><br>There may be some telco's out there that don't know these type s of<br>technologies are out there.  But for many, they are quiet awar e.  The <br>fact is 10G seems a lot more economically feasible right now.  May be if<br>40G, OC768 WDM line cards didn't cost over a quarter million dollar s<br>each there would be more deployments of it.  The rate and cost of <br> facility upgrades are far surpassing the means to make the ROI models work.<br>< br>-Robert<br></blockquote></div> <div><br>Of course they know 40G exists, read the press releases.  It is ho w it is implemented is the intersting thing.</div> <div> </div> <div>Instead of relpacing all of DWDM systems from 10->40G it looks like it w as done to *one* window.  Go run the nummbers on the follwoing models:</div > <div> </div> <div>1. Replace 10G system to 40G + assorted new mux gear for existing circuits + 40G router card + opex</div> <div>2. Remove one transponder + stratalight + 40G router card + opex</div> <div>3. Existing 10G system + silly iMux 4x10G + 40G router card + opex (ze ro gain in system capacity)</div> <div>4. Remove one transponder + 40G DWDM router card + opex (the opex on this o ne is huge because you start to elimiated a large number of bodies to maintain # 1, #2 or #3)</div> <div> </div> <div>If you work for a telco go to your transport group and suggest #4 and liste n to their bell shaped heads ring.</div> <div> </div> ------=_Part_31524_28635658.1184329276318--

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]) by chopin.merit.edu (MOS 3.8.2-GA) with ESMTP id AFK25665; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:33:18 -0400 (EDT) Received: (from steve@localhost) by mrserver.telecomplete.net (8.13.8/8.13.8/Submit) id l6DBXGnV030107; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:33:16 +0100 Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:33:16 +0100 From: Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox(a)packetrade.com> To: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor(a)inoc.net> Cc: nanog(a)nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted Message-ID: <20070713113316.GL14059(a)MrServer.telecomplete.net> References: <20070712133910.B8475(a)sprockets.gibbard.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.07071223 42300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407(a)inoc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130 039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807(a)inoc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101@bog us.com> <4696D017.7010100(a)inoc.net> <4696D4A2.2010001(a)psg.com> <4696EF15.6020704 @utc.edu> <46975C58.4070602(a)inoc.net> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Disposition: inline In-Reply-To: <46975C58.4070602(a)inoc.net> User-Agent: Mutt/1.4.2.2i Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A090204.469763A9.0027:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 58 On Fri, Jul 13, 2007 at 07:04:56AM -0400, Robert Blayzor wrote: > > Jeff Kell wrote: > >If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable. > > > >* 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-) > >* 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days > >* 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k > >* 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k) > >* 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m) > > > Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time > soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets > not forget that all of the above has been established on existing > facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years. hmm.. at least here in the UK cable companies built out during the 90s in just a few years covering a large % of the population. upgrades in CO technology (DSLA Ms etc) seems to occur every 4-5yrs too so I dont think anything radical can be considered unachievable if you allow 5-10yrs for rollout > > You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years > between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to > take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M, > maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So... > > 30M Is Today +4/5 years > 300M Is Today +8/10 years > 3G Is Today +12/15 years > 30G Is Today +16/20 years I was thinking about this bandwidth question recently too altho a bit differentl y. 1991 = 14.4kbps dialup 1994 = 28kbps dialup 1995 = 33kbps 1996 = 56kbps dialup 2000 = 512k dsl 2006 = 10Mb cable/dsl approximately speaking we increase an order of magnitude every 5 years, so perha ps we can expect: 2010 = 50Mb 2015 = 500Mb 2020 = 5Gb 2025 = 50Gb so our estimates are similar :) my guess is that wont be achieved with OC768 either.. i dont know if we can go t hat far with copper but it wouldnt surprise me. Steve > > If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like > Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use > PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're > running into homes may not be possible for quite some time... > > PS -- baud != bps > > -Robert

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69qTIxOLmb03xf15jdKARhYjmKcJj8ZisJJiXNYzOME91z1aruLU/6MMg0Z2jOyTfHXlUwJSpcWeEUMR K3yQZLyFAuXmpvjr3e2sk=; Received: from [172.17.67.246] (unverified [12.104.158.98]) by mx0-b.inoc.net (build v7.5.2) with ESMTP id 127037611-1941382 for <nanog(a)nanog.org>; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:16:32 +0000 (UTC) Message-ID: <46975F0F.4030707(a)inoc.net> Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:16:31 -0400 From: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor(a)inoc.net> Organization: INOC, LLC User-Agent: Thunderbird 2.0.0.4 (Windows/20070604) MIME-Version: 1.0 To: nanog(a)nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted References: <12997.1184264272(a)sa.vix.com> <20070712133910.B8475@sprockets .gibbard.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB 85.1030407(a)inoc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807(a)inoc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101(a)bogus.com> <4696D017.70101 00(a)inoc.net> <7bb79a490707122006g767c3d42u88e84d5782545355(a)mail.gmail.com> In-Reply-To: <7bb79a490707122006g767c3d42u88e84d5782545355(a)mail.gmail.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A09020A.46976159.003D:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 57 micky coughes wrote: > I can see that *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise. > Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade > to a native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into the > router with a minimal effort. There was a post here from someone that > was there that explained how simple it was. This is HUGE! This has > the potential to completely disrupt telco transport dinosaur groups > *and* reshape the future. Taking it to his mom's house is just a poke > in the telco eye, he is making fun of them. This then begs the question > why can they do it between their facilities? If one guy can do it to a > *house* it must not be that hard. However, telcos with transport groups > of 1000s can't pull this off, this little project states volumes. There may be some telco's out there that don't know these types of technologies are out there. But for many, they are quiet aware. The fact is 10G seems a lot more economically feasible right now. Maybe if 40G, OC768 WDM line cards didn't cost over a quarter million dollars each there would be more deployments of it. The rate and cost of facility upgrades are far surpassing the means to make the ROI models work. -Robert

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+wC/1qzWnl2AFz4ZjakpNyDTWpl4MjRjXVqrorI3SZ1m8z45ro8lpktWEvOZ1GwxZGlAaz0LjsF1ZHmI nVm/k3PcTTHM0RBi79Mgo=; Received: from [172.17.67.246] (unverified [12.104.158.98]) by mx1-b.inoc.net (build v7.5.2) with ESMTP id 127899339-1941382 for <nanog(a)nanog.org>; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:04:56 +0000 (UTC) Message-ID: <46975C58.4070602(a)inoc.net> Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:04:56 -0400 From: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor(a)inoc.net> Organization: INOC, LLC User-Agent: Thunderbird 2.0.0.4 (Windows/20070604) MIME-Version: 1.0 To: nanog(a)nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted References: <12997.1184264272(a)sa.vix.com> <20070712133910.B8475(a)sprockets.gibbar d.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407@in oc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807@i noc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101(a)bogus.com> <4696D017.7010100(a)inoc.net> <4696D4A2.2010 001(a)psg.com> <4696EF15.6020704(a)utc.edu> In-Reply-To: <4696EF15.6020704(a)utc.edu> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog Jeff Kell wrote: > If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable. > > * 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-) > * 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days > * 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k > * 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k) > * 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m) Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets not forget that all of the above has been established on existing facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years. You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M, maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So... 30M Is Today +4/5 years 300M Is Today +8/10 years 3G Is Today +12/15 years 30G Is Today +16/20 years If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're running into homes may not be possible for quite some time... PS -- baud != bps -Robert

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by None 13 Jul '07

13 Jul '07

MTx9H4mDB6zuF8NBiJUUzbP1Hn4oqlVfnzuIbr8U2XiXlSPxR9lWlbnivf7FT6cQgw8LRPRVOzslSF0d M/EP7otfFST5GC5EMa1+U= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=beta; h=received:message-id:date:from:to:subject:cc:in-reply-to:mime-version:c ontent-type:content-transfer-encoding:content-disposition:references; b=pp3HHw3YlsTnVcW4uSQO4uHkXlCBXCAvn7O+Rxm9gw1BeSk2BAZjPha1ZXrmaC10UPXIeu rHF+AlJZUsYJ5LqB/hHK01TZ1MNXdNgefyLAlqMJCQN1v5tBG5OSq1GyIU9K7dgUMX+2LXheSFMp0aQ4 P4Nbj7hXGUe5OrWnuoMfc= Received: by 10.35.91.10 with SMTP id t10mr2269889pyl.1184317236350; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 02:00:36 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.35.22.19 with HTTP; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 02:00:36 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <a2b2d0480707130200h120151bfhf101c2424b58aa05(a)mail.gmail.com> Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 10:00:36 +0100 From: "Alexander Harrowell" <a.harrowell(a)gmail.com> To: "micky coughes" <coughes(a)gmail.com> Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted Cc: "Sean Donelan" <sean(a)donelan.com>, nanog(a)nanog.org In-Reply-To: <7bb79a490707122132j66ad5f23me1d7d13fc3973392(a)mail.gmail.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline References: <12997.1184264272(a)sa.vix.com> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407(a)inoc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807(a)inoc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101(a)bogus.com> <4696D017.7010100(a)inoc.net> <7bb79a490707122006g767c3d42u88e84d5782545355(a)mail.gmail.com> <Pine.GSO.4.64.0707122335270.600(a)clifden.donelan.com> <7bb79a490707122132j66ad5f23me1d7d13fc3973392(a)mail.gmail.com> Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog I'm aware of several mobile carriers who are buying into CRS-1s, usually at the same time they decide to pull fibre to their heavier-trafficked cell sites - which is generally just after HSPA/EV-DO Rev.A deployment. For hip hop fans: "Yes Yes Y'All, CRS-ONE, CRS-ONE, ROCK ON!"

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None
by None 13 Jul '07

13 Jul '07

0cO1Y0Fl1dhqFWi+FMxR9Pw3YLYglVY1oPviKgcyF6gOTU5HhCD48U99vkPOSjK0+0nmdkzHDi0u7xJs 6nYdROWlYg4TNObJDhfl0= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=beta; h=received:message-id:date:from:to:subject:cc:in-reply-to:mime-version:c ontent-type:references; b=OLZGKdAZzmiVFJ2Gdkb0gi/cl1q8Yck+B0fK/3IP3J06qul87mByzV/ZUphsIL4fJgjlOs wsNL3hxtrpM/859+kp6fD4CtI0gSu3R5An3jkfm/tjdSQ7yLuSUHzl3MBuu8RADbSppawX3058KmDoA3 TI7o8XFYxpathOqV4R+xc= Received: by 10.82.160.2 with SMTP id i2mr1499818bue.1184301151879; Thu, 12 Jul 2007 21:32:31 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.82.172.9 with HTTP; Thu, 12 Jul 2007 21:32:31 -0700 (PDT) Message-ID: <7bb79a490707122132j66ad5f23me1d7d13fc3973392(a)mail.gmail.com> Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 00:32:31 -0400 From: "micky coughes" <coughes(a)gmail.com> To: "Sean Donelan" <sean(a)donelan.com> Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted Cc: nanog(a)nanog.org In-Reply-To: <Pine.GSO.4.64.0707122335270.600(a)clifden.donelan.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_27902_13623940.1184301151803" References: <12997.1184264272(a)sa.vix.com> <20070712133910.B8475(a)sprockets.gibbard.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407(a)inoc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807(a)inoc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101(a)bogus.com> <4696D017.7010100(a)inoc.net> <7bb79a490707122006g767c3d42u88e84d5782545355(a)mail.gmail.com> <Pine.GSO.4.64.0707122335270.600(a)clifden.donelan.com> Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A090209.46970152.0044:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 54 ------=_Part_27902_13623940.1184301151803 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline On 7/12/07, Sean Donelan <sean(a)donelan.com> wrote: > > > On Thu, 12 Jul 2007, micky coughes wrote: > > I can see that *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise. > > Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade > to a > > native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into the > router > > with a minimal effort. There was a post here from someone that was > there > > that explained how simple it was. This is HUGE! This has the > potential to > > completely disrupt telco transport dinosaur groups *and* reshape the > > future. Taking it to his mom's house is just a poke in the telco eye, > he is > > making fun of them. This then begs the question why can they do it > between > > their facilities? If one guy can do it to a *house* it must not be that > > hard. However, telcos with transport groups of 1000s can't pull this > off, > > this little project states volumes. > > Anyone can buy CRS-1 from Cisco. All you need is money. Busting out my handy dandy cisco configuration tool I can see that this is a very expensive CPE solution. This exercise cannot be about last mile delivery, thinking so is foolish. Given that and moving the technology to the core it becomes: Money + laying off thousands of worthless telco TDM transport people. The solution that is presented is to take an existing 10G transport DWDM network, remove transponders, replace with router gear instead of forklifting the end terminal systems. This is a viable model. > Why are you waiting for the telco's to do something? I am waiting for them to go out of business so I can pick assets pennies on the dollar. Japan is spending over USD $30 Billion to bring 100Mbps to the most (but > not all) of their country. Verizon is spending about $23 Billion on FTTH > to reach 18 million homes. CableLabs is hoping DOCSIS 3.0 will bring 400+ > Mbps to the home without needing to replace the coax plant with fiber to > the home. You are confused and your argument is orthogonal. 40G home delivery is not currently an viable business model given the CPE cost. This is about upgrading your current transport from 10G to 40G with minimal cost and effort. For those that want 100G replace the handoff and incorporate the same or better modulation schemes. Welcome to the Bell 202 to Bell 212 upgrade. All you need is money. That is left as an simple exercise for the reader. > And to you obviously money is an infinite resource. ------=_Part_27902_13623940.1184301151803 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline <br><br> <div><span class="gmail_quote">On 7/12/07, <b class="gmail_sendername">Sean Done lan</b> <<a href="mailto:sean@donelan.com">sean(a)donelan.com</a>> wrote:</s pan> <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0. 8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid"><br>On Thu, 12 Jul 2007, micky coughes wrote:< br>> I can see that *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise. <br>> Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade to a<br>> native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into th e router<br>> with a minimal effort.  There was a post here from so meone that was there <br>> that explained how simple it was.   This is HUGE!   This has the potential to<br>> completely disrupt telco transport dinosaur gr oups *and* reshape the<br>> future.  Taking it to his mom's hou se is just a poke in the telco eye, he is <br>> making fun of them.  This then begs the question why can they do it between<br>> their facilities?  If one guy can do it to a *h ouse* it must not be that<br>> hard.  However, telcos with transpor t groups of 1000s can't pull this off, <br>> this little project states volumes.<br><br>Anyone can buy CRS-1 from Ci sco.  All you need is money.</blockquote> <div> </div> <div>Busting out my handy dandy cisco configuration tool I can see that this is a very expensive CPE solution.  This exercise cannot be about last mil e delivery, thinking so is foolish.  Given that and moving the technology t o the core it becomes: Money + laying off thousands of worthless telco TDM trans port people.  The solution that is presented is to take an existing 10G tra nsport DWDM network, remove transponders, replace with router gear instead of fo rklifting the end terminal systems.  This is a viable model. </div> <div><br> </div> <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0. 8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">Why are you waiting for the telco's to do something?</blockquote> <div> </div> <div>I am waiting for them to go out of business so I can pick assets pennies on the dollar.</div><br> <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0. 8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">Japan is spending over USD $30 Billion to brin g 100Mbps to the most (but<br>not all) of their country.  Verizon is s pending about $23 Billion on FTTH <br>to reach 18 million homes. CableLabs is hoping DOCSIS 3.0 will bring 400+<br >Mbps to the home without needing to replace the coax plant with fiber to<br>the home.</blockquote> <div> </div> <div>You are confused and your argument is orthogonal.  40G home delivery i s not currently an viable business model given the CPE cost.  This is about upgrading your current transport from 10G to 40G with minimal cost and eff ort.  For those that want 100G replace the handoff and incorporate the same or better modulation schemes.  Welcome to the Bell 202 to Bell 212 up grade. </div> <div> </div><br> <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0. 8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">All you need is money.  That is left as an simple exercise for the reader.<br></blockquote></div>And to you obviousl y money is an infinite resource. <br> ------=_Part_27902_13623940.1184301151803--

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Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted
by Scott Weeks 13 Jul '07

13 Jul '07

--- coughes(a)gmail.com wrote: From: "micky coughes" <coughes(a)gmail.com> I can see that *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise. Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade to a native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into the router with a minimal effort. There was a post here from someone that was there that explained how simple it was. This is HUGE! This has the potential to completely disrupt telco transport dinosaur groups *and* reshape the --------------------------------------------------- I guess you'll be pulling the fiber yourself, too? scott

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Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted
by Sean Donelan 13 Jul '07

13 Jul '07

rd.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407(a)inoc.n et> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164(a)uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807(a)inoc.n et> <4696C8DA.3070101(a)bogus.com> <4696D017.7010100(a)inoc.net> <7bb79a490707122006g767c3d42u88e84d5782545355(a)mail.gmail.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed Sender: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog(a)merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A090209.4696F7CC.0072:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 52 On Thu, 12 Jul 2007, micky coughes wrote: > I can see that *everybody* is missing the point on Peter's exercise. > Clearly this is to show to the telcos of the world that you can upgrade to a > native IP infrastructure and absorb the existing transport into the router > with a minimal effort. There was a post here from someone that was there > that explained how simple it was. This is HUGE! This has the potential to > completely disrupt telco transport dinosaur groups *and* reshape the > future. Taking it to his mom's house is just a poke in the telco eye, he is > making fun of them. This then begs the question why can they do it between > their facilities? If one guy can do it to a *house* it must not be that > hard. However, telcos with transport groups of 1000s can't pull this off, > this little project states volumes. Anyone can buy CRS-1 from Cisco. All you need is money. Why are you waiting for the telco's to do something? Japan is spending over USD $30 Billion to bring 100Mbps to the most (but not all) of their country. Verizon is spending about $23 Billion on FTTH to reach 18 million homes. CableLabs is hoping DOCSIS 3.0 will bring 400+ Mbps to the home without needing to replace the coax plant with fiber to the home. All you need is money. That is left as an simple exercise for the reader.

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