Muni Fiber Last Mile - a contrary opinion
I was poking around to see what the current received wisdom was as to average install cost per building for suburban municipal home-run fiber, and ran across this article, which discusses the topic, and itemizes several large such deployments that "failed" or had to be sold private. I'd be interested to see what comments nanogers have on this piece. I'm not well enough read to critically evaluate the guy's assertions. http://www.digitalsociety.org/2010/03/why-municipal-fiber-has-not-succeeded/ Cheers, -- jra
I'd be interested to see what comments nanogers have on this piece. I'm not well enough read to critically evaluate the guy's assertions.
I'm not familiar with a GPON system that provides gigabit to every subscriber under 'high congestion'. I do know of FTTN systems that can provide a lot more than 10/50 service to the end user (VDSL2 or ethernet over coax). What I really want to know is why 'Active Ethernet' didn't even make the chart... I got a chuckle out of this: "Provo County’s iProvo was hoping for 10,000 subscribers by July 2006 with the assumption that 75% of those customers would subscribe to lucrative triple play services, but the reality was 10,000 customers in late 2007 with only 17% of those customers subscribing to triple play" A 75% upsell rate to triple play packages seems ludicrous. I can't think of any industry that sees an upsell rate of 75% - can you (hell, I sold running shoes in high school, and the -target- upsell rate on shoestrings/socks/whatever-else was 15%). Nathan
A 75% upsell rate to triple play packages seems ludicrous. I can't think of any industry that sees an upsell rate of 75% - can you (hell, I sold running shoes in high school, and the -target- upsell rate on shoestrings/socks/whatever-else was 15%).
Nathan
Well, I won't get rid of my "wired" phone for VOIP. The power where I live is subject to outage during storms but the phones work. I want a phone that works when the power is out for an extended period of time. At most, they would get "double play" from me (TV and Internet) and that' it. And based on discussions with others, many feel the same way about having their telephone depend on their cable box having power.
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery. I have talked to local techs that make the same trip each shift to fuel the generator during regular or minor power outages. Anything major, expect the service to die. Best bets: your state emergency operations center, hospitals, airports, grocery stores and possibly hotels. During the northeast power outage the biggest local problem was inability to pump gas out of underground tanks. The margin at the stations is low enough it's not worth it to have generators. Best off having the pipeline next to you and to use natural gas/propane if your needs can be easily met by it. Jared Mauch On Dec 23, 2010, at 1:09 PM, "George Bonser" <gbonser@seven.com> wrote:
A 75% upsell rate to triple play packages seems ludicrous. I can't think of any industry that sees an upsell rate of 75% - can you (hell, I sold running shoes in high school, and the -target- upsell rate on shoestrings/socks/whatever-else was 15%).
Nathan
Well, I won't get rid of my "wired" phone for VOIP. The power where I live is subject to outage during storms but the phones work. I want a phone that works when the power is out for an extended period of time.
At most, they would get "double play" from me (TV and Internet) and that' it. And based on discussions with others, many feel the same way about having their telephone depend on their cable box having power.
On 12/26/10 4:37 PM, Jared Mauch wrote:
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
I have talked to local techs that make the same trip each shift to fuel the generator during regular or minor power outages. Anything major, expect the service to die.
Best bets: your state emergency operations center, hospitals, airports, grocery stores and possibly hotels.
During the northeast power outage the biggest local problem was inability to pump gas out of underground tanks. The margin at the stations is low enough it's not worth it to have generators. Best off having the pipeline next to you and to use natural gas/propane if your needs can be easily met by it.
During the last multi-hour power outage in my neighborhood I drove around to tour the area; sure enough there was a truck backed up to many (but not all) of them with a cable plugged in to the meter kiosk. I feel dirty using a facebook link, but: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1265926&l=999da42e39&id=1327652570 However, residential internet access as a whole (DSL, cable) tends to have lower reliability than POTS or T1, so they still a leg to stand on if it matters to you. Power-wise though they're all on equal footing. ~Seth
From: Jared Mauch Sent: Sunday, December 26, 2010 4:37 PM To: George Bonser Cc: Nathan Eisenberg; NANOG Subject: Re: Muni Fiber Last Mile - a contrary opinion
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
I have talked to local techs that make the same trip each shift to fuel the generator during regular or minor power outages. Anything major, expect the service to die.
Best bets: your state emergency operations center, hospitals, airports, grocery stores and possibly hotels.
During the northeast power outage the biggest local problem was inability to pump gas out of underground tanks. The margin at the stations is low enough it's not worth it to have generators. Best off having the pipeline next to you and to use natural gas/propane if your needs can be easily met by it.
Jared Mauch
I am pretty lucky, the CO is about 4 blocks from the house and as far as I can tell I'm wired directly (and the wiring was installed around 1960 and is all above ground from a box next to the CO). The local loop does to go a box about a half block from the CO but it has no generator. It is just jumper blocks from the looks of it when I have seen it open. +1 on the natural gas generator, or if you heat with oil, a diesel that feeds off the heating oil tank. Even agricultural diesel will be fine or WVO bio-diesel. No need to pay road tax on diesel used in a generator. Gasoline would be my last choice for a generator.
On Dec 26, 2010, at 4:37 PM, Jared Mauch wrote:
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
I know this is true where FTTN overlays have been built. However, in the majority of California, at least, that is still more the exception than the rule and there is usually a Cat-3 Copper home-run for local dialtone.
I have talked to local techs that make the same trip each shift to fuel the generator during regular or minor power outages. Anything major, expect the service to die.
If nothing else, I expect various other components in the system (trunk overload, switch dialtone exhaustion, etc.) in anything major anyway. However, 24 hours of dialtone after something happens still exceeds the average cablemodem duration after the power flickers. Owen
-----Original Message----- From: Owen DeLong [mailto:owen@delong.com] Sent: Sunday, December 26, 2010 9:11 PM To: Jared Mauch Cc: NANOG Subject: Re: Muni Fiber Last Mile - a contrary opinion
On Dec 26, 2010, at 4:37 PM, Jared Mauch wrote:
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
I know this is true where FTTN overlays have been built. However, in the majority of California, at least, that is still more the exception than the rule and there is usually a Cat-3 Copper home-run for local dialtone.
[Frank Bulk] Here in the midwest each and every of the telcos that I've talked to or worked with feeds dialtone for their DSL customers from the same equipment that serves the DSL. To do otherwise would require a splitter shelf in each node.
I have talked to local techs that make the same trip each shift to fuel the generator during regular or minor power outages. Anything major, expect the service to die.
If nothing else, I expect various other components in the system (trunk overload, switch dialtone exhaustion, etc.) in anything major anyway.
However, 24 hours of dialtone after something happens still exceeds the average cablemodem duration after the power flickers.
[Frank Bulk] Some MSOs (including ourselves) have power systems (e.g. Alpha) in place throughout the plant to provide backup power for at least some time.
On Dec 26, 2010, at 7:35 PM, Frank Bulk - iName.com wrote:
-----Original Message----- From: Owen DeLong [mailto:owen@delong.com] Sent: Sunday, December 26, 2010 9:11 PM To: Jared Mauch Cc: NANOG Subject: Re: Muni Fiber Last Mile - a contrary opinion
On Dec 26, 2010, at 4:37 PM, Jared Mauch wrote:
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
I know this is true where FTTN overlays have been built. However, in the majority of California, at least, that is still more the exception than the rule and there is usually a Cat-3 Copper home-run for local dialtone.
[Frank Bulk] Here in the midwest each and every of the telcos that I've talked to or worked with feeds dialtone for their DSL customers from the same equipment that serves the DSL. To do otherwise would require a splitter shelf in each node.
In California, that is, by and large, the CO.
I have talked to local techs that make the same trip each shift to fuel the generator during regular or minor power outages. Anything major, expect the service to die.
If nothing else, I expect various other components in the system (trunk overload, switch dialtone exhaustion, etc.) in anything major anyway.
However, 24 hours of dialtone after something happens still exceeds the average cablemodem duration after the power flickers.
[Frank Bulk] Some MSOs (including ourselves) have power systems (e.g. Alpha) in place throughout the plant to provide backup power for at least some time.
Does that back up the cablemodem in the residence? If not, game over. Owen
On 12/26/10 10:04 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
On Dec 26, 2010, at 7:35 PM, Frank Bulk - iName.com wrote:
[Frank Bulk] Some MSOs (including ourselves) have power systems (e.g. Alpha) in place throughout the plant to provide backup power for at least some time.
Does that back up the cablemodem in the residence? If not, game over.
this is a not-uncommon example of cable modem + voice cpe installed to insure that voip continues when the power is out, there are others... http://www.amazon.com/Motorola-SURFboard-SBV5220-Digital-Integrated/dp/B000T...
Owen
On Sun, Dec 26, 2010, Owen DeLong wrote:
[Frank Bulk] Some MSOs (including ourselves) have power systems (e.g. Alpha) in place throughout the plant to provide backup power for at least some time.
Does that back up the cablemodem in the residence? If not, game over.
Thing is, not enough noise was made about that in the Australian National Broadband Plan until late in the game. I'm patiently waiting for a time when a major power outage incident occurs and the cellular network system locally fails. Adrian
On Monday, December 27, 2010 01:04:33 am Owen DeLong wrote:
On Dec 26, 2010, at 7:35 PM, Frank Bulk - iName.com wrote: Does that back up the cablemodem in the residence? If not, game over.
Owen
All of the Arris eMTA models have a version with built in battery backup, and as I recall drop net access and continue to provide phone power for some time. I know in our lab the one of the first things we make sure of, is that the batteries are not in them so we can do powercycle testing. --- Brian Raaen Network Architech Zcorum
Cable modem is no different than a DSL modem, right? ;) If it's an eMTA, it may have battery backup, though the operational default is to disable the Ethernet port after a few minutes to provide the maximum amount of dial-tone. Frank -----Original Message----- From: Owen DeLong [mailto:owen@delong.com] Sent: Monday, December 27, 2010 12:05 AM To: frnkblk@iname.com Cc: NANOG; Jared Mauch Subject: Re: Muni Fiber Last Mile - a contrary opinion On Dec 26, 2010, at 7:35 PM, Frank Bulk - iName.com wrote: <snip>
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
I know this is true where FTTN overlays have been built. However, in the majority of California, at least, that is still more the exception than the rule and there is usually a Cat-3 Copper home-run for local dialtone.
[Frank Bulk] Here in the midwest each and every of the telcos that I've talked to or worked with feeds dialtone for their DSL customers from the same equipment that serves the DSL. To do otherwise would require a splitter shelf in each node.
In California, that is, by and large, the CO. <snip>
However, 24 hours of dialtone after something happens still exceeds the average cablemodem duration after the power flickers.
[Frank Bulk] Some MSOs (including ourselves) have power systems (e.g. Alpha) in place throughout the plant to provide backup power for at least some time.
Does that back up the cablemodem in the residence? If not, game over. Owen
Once upon a time, Jared Mauch <jared@puck.nether.net> said:
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery.
The AT&T (formerly BellSouth) cabinets around here mostly have natural gas generators included, so they almost never go out. The cable companies, on the other hand, might have enough battery to last through a brownout. -- Chris Adams <cmadams@hiwaay.net> Systems and Network Administrator - HiWAAY Internet Services I don't speak for anybody but myself - that's enough trouble.
This thread is really interesting to see what's happening in .us with power. I've been following what's going on in .au with their ftth project (doing the whole country and pulling out the legacy copper systems, both tp and hfc) and there's been a bit of talk about issues in power cuts. I'm in Christchurch.nz where we've been having earth quakes every day, it's interesting to see the mobile networks go to half service (2G, no 3G on one network yesterday) when the quakes take out the suburban line transformers. D On 27/12/2010 5:07 p.m., Chris Adams wrote:
Once upon a time, Jared Mauch<jared@puck.nether.net> said:
You are likely already at the mercy of some local hut for your dialtone. Very few things home run to the co these days. It's unlikely any hut has more than 24 hours of battery. The AT&T (formerly BellSouth) cabinets around here mostly have natural gas generators included, so they almost never go out. The cable companies, on the other hand, might have enough battery to last through a brownout.
-- Don Gould 31 Acheson Ave, Mairehau, Christchurch, NZ Ph +64 3 348 7235 or + 64 21 114 0699 www.bowenvale.co.nz/ipv6 - Taking on the IPv6 Challenge!
On Dec 26, 2010, at 8:07 PM, Chris Adams wrote:
The AT&T (formerly BellSouth) cabinets around here mostly have natural gas generators included, so they almost never go out. The cable companies, on the other hand, might have enough battery to last through a brownout.
Interesting - out of curiosity, how big are these cabinets/pedestals? Or would you by chance know details on the natgas power system they are using? Natgas is not ideal in a full-on disaster scenario like an earthquake, but probably could add another '9' onto service levels? I have never heard of or seen such a thing, but it is a really good idea. - Michael DeMan
Once upon a time, Michael DeMan <nanog@deman.com> said:
On Dec 26, 2010, at 8:07 PM, Chris Adams wrote:
The AT&T (formerly BellSouth) cabinets around here mostly have natural gas generators included, so they almost never go out. The cable companies, on the other hand, might have enough battery to last through a brownout.
Interesting - out of curiosity, how big are these cabinets/pedestals? Or would you by chance know details on the natgas power system they are using?
I don't know; I've just seen them driving by (since other cabinets don't have a gas meter, they stand out). It looks like they set up two cabinets about 6-8 feet wide, 3 feet deep, and 4-5 feet high (just guestimating). Maybe one cabinet for power/batteries/generator and one for the telco gear?
Natgas is not ideal in a full-on disaster scenario like an earthquake, but probably could add another '9' onto service levels? I have never heard of or seen such a thing, but it is a really good idea.
I'm in north Alabama; earthquakes aren't a significant problem here. The biggest I can remember was something like a 3.2, just enough to hear and feel. We're far enough from New Madrid that it shouldn't be an issue. Our main problem is severe storms (thunderstorms and tornados), the once-every-few-decades ice storm, and the random exploding transformer. -- Chris Adams <cmadams@hiwaay.net> Systems and Network Administrator - HiWAAY Internet Services I don't speak for anybody but myself - that's enough trouble.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jared Mauch" <jared@puck.nether.net>
During the northeast power outage the biggest local problem was inability to pump gas out of underground tanks. The margin at the stations is low enough it's not worth it to have generators. Best off having the pipeline next to you and to use natural gas/propane if your needs can be easily met by it.
Note that the state of Florida has mandated gensets for petroleum sellers. Cheers, -- jra
----- Original Message -----
From: "Nathan Eisenberg" <nathan@atlasnetworks.us>
I got a chuckle out of this: "Provo County’s iProvo was hoping for 10,000 subscribers by July 2006 with the assumption that 75% of those customers would subscribe to lucrative triple play services, but the reality was 10,000 customers in late 2007 with only 17% of those customers subscribing to triple play"
A 75% upsell rate to triple play packages seems ludicrous. I can't think of any industry that sees an upsell rate of 75% - can you (hell, I sold running shoes in high school, and the -target- upsell rate on shoestrings/socks/whatever-else was 15%).
Indeed. And it seems worth noting that, unless I'm missing something, iProvo specifically violated the condition we all seem to agree is most important in such a build: they were not only the fiber op, but the content transport provider (ie, cable company/IAP). Cheers, -- jra
There is a large difference between muni-fiber that attempts to compete for some of the best customers (e.g. the following the tranditional overbuild method) and muni-fiber who's goal is universal service of fiber to the home. Basically it is the difference between a small entity (the town) going up against a large one (iLEC, CableCo) compared to the small entity trying to be a supplier to those folks... -- Leo Bicknell - bicknell@ufp.org - CCIE 3440 PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
On 12/23/10 12:27 PM, Jay Ashworth wrote:
I was poking around to see what the current received wisdom was as to average install cost per building for suburban municipal home-run fiber, and ran across this article, which discusses the topic, and itemizes several large such deployments that "failed" or had to be sold private.
I'd be interested to see what comments nanogers have on this piece. I'm not well enough read to critically evaluate the guy's assertions.
http://www.digitalsociety.org/2010/03/why-municipal-fiber-has-not-succeeded/
Always consider the source. Didn't we just have a George Ou cite that was debunked on this list? Subject: RE: Level 3 Communications Issues Statement Concerning Comcast's Actions Reminder: ITIF is an ultra-conservative, anti-government outfit: http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2009-November/015552.html ITIF doesn't give out information about its funding, which usually means it's industry lobbyist funded. Apparently in this case, big cable and probably big telco.
On 12/24/2010 1:39 AM, William Allen Simpson wrote:
On 12/23/10 12:27 PM, Jay Ashworth wrote:
I was poking around to see what the current received wisdom was as to average install cost per building for suburban municipal home-run fiber, and ran across this article, which discusses the topic, and itemizes several large such deployments that "failed" or had to be sold private.
I'd be interested to see what comments nanogers have on this piece. I'm not well enough read to critically evaluate the guy's assertions.
http://www.digitalsociety.org/2010/03/why-municipal-fiber-has-not-succeeded/
Always consider the source.
Didn't we just have a George Ou cite that was debunked on this list? Subject: RE: Level 3 Communications Issues Statement Concerning Comcast's Actions
Reminder: ITIF is an ultra-conservative, anti-government outfit: http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2009-November/015552.html
http://www.itif.org/content/about-us They are a wonk tank in DC. They have totally transparent funding and if you want to see it check their SEC and public filings. Todd
ITIF doesn't give out information about its funding, which usually means it's industry lobbyist funded. Apparently in this case, big cable and probably big telco.
participants (17)
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Adrian Chadd -
Brian Christopher Raaen -
Chris Adams -
Don Gould -
Frank Bulk -
Frank Bulk - iName.com
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George Bonser -
Jared Mauch -
Jay Ashworth -
Joel Jaeggli -
Leo Bicknell -
Michael DeMan -
Nathan Eisenberg -
Owen DeLong -
Seth Mattinen -
todd glassey -
William Allen Simpson