One thing I have heard repeated about one large carrier is that only 10% of their network is used for their Internet product. The remainder of it is used for private leased lines (could also be someone running IP) or another carrier that is leasing a loop or tdm service from them. Jared Mauch On Aug 8, 2010, at 9:30 AM, odlyzko@umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko) wrote:
Fascinating. Memories may be plastic (something that has been established scientifically), or else we may have yet another inconsistency to add to the pile of others. Is there any documentation about the "doubling every nine months"? I have never seen that particular claim emanating from anyone involved with WorldCom/UUNet.
On the other hand, existing record shows (among others):
1. U.S. Department of Commerce white paper from April 1998,
http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ecommerce/EDEreprt.pdf
on p. 8 declares that "UUNET, one of the largest Internet backbone providers, estimates that Internet traffic doubles every 100 days," with a reference to an Inktomi white paper that attributes this claim to Mike O'Dell. The Inktomi report is no longer on the Web, but I can provide a copy to anyone interested.
2. The transcript of the May 2000 presentation by O'Dell at a Stanford conference clearly has him saying that the capacity of the UUNet network, as measured by OC12-miles, doubles every four months,
http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/odell-transcript.txt
As is explained in my paper, in the 1998-2000 time frame, essentially all the WorldCom/UUNet claims then seemed to be about capacity, not traffic.
3. The year-end 2000 email from O'Dell to Dave Farber's IP list,
http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200011/msg0005...
has him talking of traffic doubling each year, while capacity grows 8-fold.
If some time in that period there was a claim of a "doubling every nine months," too, that would be very interesting.
Andrew
Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
my memory is that he said doubling every nine months. Mine too.
mo's too. i asked.
randy