On Dec 14, 2010, at 6:59 PM, Seth Mattinen wrote:
I just see this as a natural progression of what happens of a single player with a captive audience due to mergers and attrition. They know their customers aren't going anywhere. The only way to "fix" it would be to go back to the days when there were a bunch of competing local providers.
This requires one or more of the following: o regulatory action o last mile regulation or competitive access o subsidies for new players o massive capital outlays o state laws changed in various markets o reformation of USF o changes at NTIA o changes at USDA (RUS) I'll once again use my example of the verizon assets going to fairpoint. it shows that the costs are significant. I can get a 10G across an ocean for cheaper than I can get one delivered over a 1 mile distance in a neighborhood. I do believe that FTTH will eventually become the solution to all the edge network ills, but at the same time, replacing that costs a lot of money. Take a look at this article from 2008 - http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/a-bear-speaks-why-verizons-pricey-f... "Here is how Mr. Moffett looks at the costs of the plan that Verizon has announced for FiOS. Through 2010 the company will pay an average of $817 to run the fiber past the 19 million homes, on poles or under the ground. It will also incur $172 per home passed in other costs related to the video infrastructure. He assumes that 40 percent of the customers passed will buy at least one FiOS service. If you allocate the cost of running the fiber past the homes that don’t buy FiOS to those that do, that makes the cost of building the network $2,473 per home. (That cost would be less if more than 40 percent of the potential customers sign up. Or it could be higher, if sales don’t achieve the 40 percent level.)" If you are willing to pay $2500 to have service installed, I'm sure the incumbents would be jumping at you. Instead, these are often regulated, last I recall in Michigan it was $42/line, even if they had to trench a quarter mile to reach you.. or if they just tested the existing copper to your home. This masks the actual costs. - Jared