:: How do people model and try to project residential :: subscriber bandwidth demands into the future? Do :: you base it primarily on historical data? ------------------------------------------------------ Yes, if you have a lot of quality data that goes far back in the past you can make pretty good judgements on future needs. Less data and/or not very far back lessens the accuracy of a prediction about the future. scott --- thomasammon@gmail.com wrote: From: Tom Ammon <thomasammon@gmail.com> To: NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> Subject: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand Date: Tue, 2 Apr 2019 12:54:47 -0400 How do people model and try to project residential subscriber bandwidth demands into the future? Do you base it primarily on historical data? Are there more sophisticated approaches that you use to figure out how much backbone bandwidth you need to build to keep your eyeballs happy? Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really asking is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are going to bring to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks such as QUIC and TCP BBR? Tom -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tom Ammon M: (801) 784-2628 thomasammon@gmail.com -----------------------------------------------------------------------------