ERCOT ISO Texas has announced the end of today's emergency energy conservation appeal due to a shortage of generation capacity and higher than forecasted demand caused by a cold front. No this is not an old message. Yep, Texas is having power shortages again in mild April weather.
On 4/14/21 03:49, Sean Donelan wrote:
ERCOT ISO Texas has announced the end of today's emergency energy conservation appeal due to a shortage of generation capacity and higher than forecasted demand caused by a cold front.
No this is not an old message. Yep, Texas is having power shortages again in mild April weather.
So looks like ERCOT have 32,000MW of capacity offline for maintenance and repairs, which they claim is not unusual for this time of the year as they gear up for the summer. So generation capacity was only 50,000MW, while demand was 49,000MW. 1,000MW in reserve is right on the nose. Solar production was also down by 3,000MW due to cloudy skies. Fundamentally, the outlook for energy production, globally, is not that great. Operators are going to have a tougher and tougher time meeting demand as electrification increases, consumer demand increases, and the pressure to use more renewables increases. Considering that supply and demand must always be balanced, it's a little hard for operators to be conscious about their sources of energy while consumers continue to live as normal. There has been plenty of talk about IDSM (integrated demand side management) through automation with smart grids that can control when folk use appliances, remotely. But practically, most DSM measures will be led by deliberate behavioural changes, through appeals like the one ERCOT made for folk to conserve energy. That won't ramp-down demand as fast as operators would like, and with our habits of flipping switches and expecting the lights to come on and the kettles to boil, it's not a small problem. Even as I support renewable plants, I am not yet fully convinced that a quick and massive decommissioning of fossil fuels for base load generation is feasible. I believe the success of renewable generation capacity (coupled with storage) lies in distributed delivery through community micro grids, and not grid-scale deployment. Mark.
--- Even as I support renewable plants, I am not yet fully convinced that a quick and massive decommissioning of fossil fuels for base load generation is feasible. --- Nuclear is the only way to have a reliable base load generation that doesn't release greenhouse gasses. Thankfully the US drought on new nuclear construction was over a few years ago. Hopefully it continues. ----- Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Tinka" <mark@tinka.africa> To: nanog@nanog.org Sent: Tuesday, April 13, 2021 11:54:55 PM Subject: Re: Texas ERCOT power shortages (again) April 13 On 4/14/21 03:49, Sean Donelan wrote:
ERCOT ISO Texas has announced the end of today's emergency energy conservation appeal due to a shortage of generation capacity and higher than forecasted demand caused by a cold front.
No this is not an old message. Yep, Texas is having power shortages again in mild April weather.
So looks like ERCOT have 32,000MW of capacity offline for maintenance and repairs, which they claim is not unusual for this time of the year as they gear up for the summer. So generation capacity was only 50,000MW, while demand was 49,000MW. 1,000MW in reserve is right on the nose. Solar production was also down by 3,000MW due to cloudy skies. Fundamentally, the outlook for energy production, globally, is not that great. Operators are going to have a tougher and tougher time meeting demand as electrification increases, consumer demand increases, and the pressure to use more renewables increases. Considering that supply and demand must always be balanced, it's a little hard for operators to be conscious about their sources of energy while consumers continue to live as normal. There has been plenty of talk about IDSM (integrated demand side management) through automation with smart grids that can control when folk use appliances, remotely. But practically, most DSM measures will be led by deliberate behavioural changes, through appeals like the one ERCOT made for folk to conserve energy. That won't ramp-down demand as fast as operators would like, and with our habits of flipping switches and expecting the lights to come on and the kettles to boil, it's not a small problem. Even as I support renewable plants, I am not yet fully convinced that a quick and massive decommissioning of fossil fuels for base load generation is feasible. I believe the success of renewable generation capacity (coupled with storage) lies in distributed delivery through community micro grids, and not grid-scale deployment. Mark.
On 4/14/21 15:04, Mike Hammett wrote:
--- Even as I support renewable plants, I am not yet fully convinced that a quick and massive decommissioning of fossil fuels for base load generation is feasible. ---
Nuclear is the only way to have a reliable base load generation that doesn't release greenhouse gasses. Thankfully the US drought on new nuclear construction was over a few years ago. Hopefully it continues.
And the good news is that spent nuclear fuel can be recycled (over 90% of it). I know the French are doing it, seeing as they have one of the world's largest nuclear power plant fleet. The only problem with nuclear power plants is the cost and time required to build them, as a function of the amount of electricity they can generate. Take the UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant build, which will cost about £23 billion, will only start operating in 2025 (if all goes to plan), but will only generate 3,260MW. This is compared to just under 40,000MW of daily demand from UK citizens, more than half of which is delivered by fossil fuels (mainly CCGT and to a much smaller degree, coal). One would need to dot quite a few nuclear power plants around the country to make up the difference. And many places don't have enough water to make hydro a base load provider. Noting, of course, that the UK have some 85,000MW of installed capacity, which is interesting when you consider that over the past decade, demand for electricity on the island has been dropping, even though the population has grown quite substantially in the same time. Lockdown didn't help (any country, for that matter), but I'd expect demand to rise over next decade, putting even more pressure on a balanced energy source compliment. Mark.
On Wed, Apr 14, 2021 at 06:54:55AM +0200, Mark Tinka wrote:
So looks like ERCOT have 32,000MW of capacity offline for maintenance and repairs, which they claim is not unusual for this time of the year as they gear up for the summer. So generation capacity was only 50,000MW, while demand was 49,000MW. 1,000MW in reserve is right on the nose. Solar production was also down by 3,000MW due to cloudy skies.
Sorry guys, I bought 1210MW for impulse delivery, which very briefly ate that reserve. I can assure you that the next four days of sunny skies will regenerate it, though. In unrelated news, the Rangers got me on an 88MPH speeding ticket. Anyone know a decent traffic attorney that accepts payment in lotto tickets? -- . ___ ___ . . ___ . \ / |\ |\ \ . _\_ /__ |-\ |-\ \__
Can we keep this mailing list free of politics please? Being for or against renewable energy has nothing to do with network operations. - Mike Bolitho On Wed, Apr 14, 2021, 6:31 AM Izaac <izaac@setec.org> wrote:
So looks like ERCOT have 32,000MW of capacity offline for maintenance and repairs, which they claim is not unusual for this time of the year as
On Wed, Apr 14, 2021 at 06:54:55AM +0200, Mark Tinka wrote: they
gear up for the summer. So generation capacity was only 50,000MW, while demand was 49,000MW. 1,000MW in reserve is right on the nose. Solar production was also down by 3,000MW due to cloudy skies.
Sorry guys, I bought 1210MW for impulse delivery, which very briefly ate that reserve. I can assure you that the next four days of sunny skies will regenerate it, though.
In unrelated news, the Rangers got me on an 88MPH speeding ticket. Anyone know a decent traffic attorney that accepts payment in lotto tickets?
-- . ___ ___ . . ___ . \ / |\ |\ \ . _\_ /__ |-\ |-\ \__
On 4/14/21 15:34, Mike Bolitho wrote:
Can we keep this mailing list free of politics please? Being for or against renewable energy has nothing to do with network operations.
Not necessarily as all those large data centres popping up in my neighborhood means better Internet for me and my customers, but also places pressure on the grid, which it needs to deliver that better Internet. Mark.
On Tue, Apr 13, 2021 at 8:51 PM Sean Donelan <sean@donelan.com> wrote:
ERCOT ISO Texas has announced the end of today's emergency energy conservation appeal due to a shortage of generation capacity and higher than forecasted demand caused by a cold front.
No this is not an old message. Yep, Texas is having power shortages again in mild April weather.
a watch that has been cancelled, not an emergency http://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/opsmessages/2021/04
Apr 13 2021 19:22:55 CST Physical Responsive Capability < 2500 MW: ERCOT has cancelled the following notice: ERCOT is issuing a Watch due to Physical Responsive Capability being below 2500 MW. Watch Cancelled there was no supply shortage in day ahead market (not a generation capacity shortage) http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20210413_dam_spp day-ahead forecast peak was ~2800 MW lower than current-day forecast, as a result actual load exceeded current-day HSL (High Sustained Limit). The gap peaked 340MW at 4pm http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/loadForecastVsActualPreviousDay.html https://imgur.com/a/6MW5qU4 (screenshot) ancillary services (10 minute responsive reserve service, 30 minute non-spin) were deployed to meet higher than forecast demand and worked as expected reserve never dropped under 2300MW which would have triggered an emergency (EEA-1) emergency response service (additional generation/load resources reserved for emergencies) wasn't deployed http://www.ercot.com/services/programs/load/eils
On 4/14/21 07:44, Yang Yu wrote:
a watch that has been cancelled, not an emergency http://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/opsmessages/2021/04
Apr 13 2021 19:22:55 CST Physical Responsive Capability < 2500 MW: ERCOT has cancelled the following notice: ERCOT is issuing a Watch due to Physical Responsive Capability being below 2500 MW. Watch Cancelled
there was no supply shortage in day ahead market (not a generation capacity shortage) http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20210413_dam_spp
day-ahead forecast peak was ~2800 MW lower than current-day forecast, as a result actual load exceeded current-day HSL (High Sustained Limit). The gap peaked 340MW at 4pm http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/loadForecastVsActualPreviousDay.html https://imgur.com/a/6MW5qU4 (screenshot)
ancillary services (10 minute responsive reserve service, 30 minute non-spin) were deployed to meet higher than forecast demand and worked as expected
reserve never dropped under 2300MW which would have triggered an emergency (EEA-1)
emergency response service (additional generation/load resources reserved for emergencies) wasn't deployed http://www.ercot.com/services/programs/load/eils
Pity, I can't access ERCOT's web site (I believe others had the same issue last time). They say I need to show a business reason why access should be granted. I can't be asked. There appears to be some discrepancy between what ERCOT are publishing and what the media are sharing. Wouldn't be the first time. But considering it's all over the place, no smoke without fire. Mark.
participants (6)
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Izaac -
Mark Tinka -
Mike Bolitho -
Mike Hammett -
Sean Donelan -
Yang Yu