Re: How long will it take to completely get rid of IPv4 or will it happen at all?
Before that will happen. Isp's will first try cgnat and the alikes. They rather spend money on hardware supporting that then make the networks dualstack. Why? you may ask. Simple. Most customer service centers have ppl with less then basic skills. Explaining how ipv4 even looks like took them long enough. Abuse ticket systems and logparsers are probably also v4 based. And the one who wrote them, probably got fired and replaced by a younger/cheaper guy who just got out of school with no real field experience. When will the change happen then you might ask. Very simple. If the largest destinations like fb/twitter and others start to drop v4. So what we really would need is not an ipv6 day, but, you might have guessed it, an ipv6 ONLY day. On such a day, a hell of a lot isps will have their support queue overfilled with people asking why they cannot visit their favourite sites. And all the isp can say is: our network infrastructure is too old. -------- Oorspronkelijk bericht -------- Van: Bob Evans <bob@FiberInternetCenter.com> Datum: Aan: Rafael Possamai <rafael@gav.ufsc.br> Cc: North American Network Operators' Group <nanog@nanog.org> Onderwerp: How long will it take to completely get rid of IPv4 or will it happen at all? Our fundamental issue is that an IPv4 address has no real value as networks still give them away, it's pennies in your pocket. Everything of use needs to have a cost to motivate for change. Establishing that now won't create change it will first create greater conservation. There will be a cost that will be reached before change takes place on a scale that matters. Networks set the false perception and customer expectation that address space is free and readily available. Networks with plenty, still land many customers today by handing over a class C to customer with less than 10 servers and 5 people in an office. We have a greater supply for packets to travel than we do for addresses required to move packets. Do you know how many packets a single IP address can generate or utilize, if it was attached too "The World's Fastest Internet" in someplace like Canadaland or Sweden on init7's Fiber7 ? No matter how large the pipe the answer is always, "all of it". It's address space we should now place a price upon. Unlike, My Space's disappearance when Facebook arrived there is no quick jump to IPv6. There is no coordinated effort required that involves millions of people to change browser window content. But to answer your question... Everything that is handed over for free is perceived as having no value. Therefore, IPv4 has to cost much more than the cost to change to IPv6 today. While the IPv6 addresses are free, it is expensive to change. Businesses spend lots of money on a free lunches. It's going to take at least the price of one good lunch per IP address per month to create the consideration for change. That's about $30 for 2 people in California. Offering a /48 of free IPv6 space to everyone on the planet didn't make it happen. There is no financial incentive to move to IPv6. In fact there is more reason "not to change" than "to change". The new gear cost $$$ (lots of it didn't work well and required exploration to learn that), IT people need hours to implement (schedules are full of day-to-day issues), networks keep growing with offerings that drop Internet costs and save everyone money, business as usual is productive on IPv4 (business doesn't have time for distraction), many of us get distracted by something more immediate and interesting than buying a new wi-fi router for the home. What will come first ? A) the earths future core rotation changes altering the ionosphere in such a way that we are all exposed to continuous x-rays that shorten our lifespan OR B) the last IPv4 computer running will be reconfigured to IPv6 Thank You Bob Evans CTO
Randy,
How long do you think it will take to completely get rid of IPv4? Or is it even going to happen at all?
On Sat, Jun 27, 2015 at 4:57 AM, Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
the rirs have run out of their free source of short ints to rent to us. i am sure everyone will move to ipv6 in a week. news at eleven.
randy
When will the change happen then you might ask. Very simple. If the largest destinations like fb/twitter and others start to drop v4.
Agreed, IPv4 will be here a long time, because, not one company will risk financial loses and stock devaluation over address space. The day that a large company flips to IPv6 only in an IPv4 world will be the day to short as many shares of that stock as possible. This creates the big market for IPv4. Costs price per IP address must get beyond the price of a good lunch once per month. Because, that's an amount that businesses understand and begin to pay attention. IPv4 address space is now a profit center and will cost more to the end user than transit and network costs... Or... how will IPv6 catch on in any other way ?
This is like the switch to using MX only for email rather than MX. and A for mon MX aware systems. It will just happen and no one will notice. Mark On 28/06/2015, at 12:48, "Bob Evans" <bob@FiberInternetCenter.com> wrote:
When will the change happen then you might ask. Very simple. If the largest destinations like fb/twitter and others start to drop v4.
Agreed, IPv4 will be here a long time, because, not one company will risk financial loses and stock devaluation over address space. The day that a large company flips to IPv6 only in an IPv4 world will be the day to short as many shares of that stock as possible.
This creates the big market for IPv4. Costs price per IP address must get beyond the price of a good lunch once per month. Because, that's an amount that businesses understand and begin to pay attention. IPv4 address space is now a profit center and will cost more to the end user than transit and network costs... Or... how will IPv6 catch on in any other way ?
On Saturday, June 27, 2015, Bob Evans <bob@fiberinternetcenter.com> wrote:
When will the change happen then you might ask. Very simple. If the largest destinations like fb/twitter and others start to drop v4.
Agreed, IPv4 will be here a long time, because, not one company will risk financial loses and stock devaluation over address space. The day that a large company flips to IPv6 only in an IPv4 world will be the day to short as many shares of that stock as possible.
T-Mobile US large enough ? http://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/resources/case-study-t-mobile-us-go... I hear they have more ipv6-only subscribers than ipv4 CB This creates the big market for IPv4. Costs price per IP address must get
beyond the price of a good lunch once per month. Because, that's an amount that businesses understand and begin to pay attention. IPv4 address space is now a profit center and will cost more to the end user than transit and network costs... Or... how will IPv6 catch on in any other way ?
On Sat, 27 Jun 2015, Ca By wrote:
T-Mobile US large enough ?
http://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/resources/case-study-t-mobile-us-go...
I hear they have more ipv6-only subscribers than ipv4
By "IPv6 only" I believe he meant "stop offering IPv4 reachability to customers". Since you use 464XLAT and NAT64, you still offer IPv4 access even though it's done over IPv6 to the customer. -- Mikael Abrahamsson email: swmike@swm.pp.se
On Sat, 27 Jun 2015 13:58:24 -0400, Alexander Maassen <outsider@scarynet.org> wrote:
Before that will happen. Isp's will first try cgnat and the alikes.
They already are. And, depending on the network, have for eons. Have you checked the IP used by your cellphone? (the last few times I bothered to look... somewhere in 29/8. I thought that was really funny.)
Why?
Simple: Money. It's cheaper to install a $100k NAT appliance (or several) than it is to replace 16mil CPE devices, plus all the engineering, testing, and customer support "training" (read: BS scripts to follow.) AND, your customers aren't having any trouble getting where they need to go. Sure, there will be the forward thinkers pushing for IPv6, but not because there's some IPv6 only place they need to go (or be.)
participants (6)
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Alexander Maassen -
Bob Evans -
Ca By -
Mark Andrews -
Mikael Abrahamsson -
Ricky Beam