Internet 2010 - Predictions for 2010 from a Content Forum and NANOG 37 in San Jose
Hi - At a content forum and NANOG in June 2006 I led some discussions involving predictions for what the Internet might look like in 2010. What makes this so interesting is that so many perspectives highlighted so many potential futures that others had not considered. When you then discuss the implications of such varying futures, again with a diverse crowd, you end up with a lively discussion and, well, some potential futures you may not have considered. I've tried to list some of these predictions from the Content Provider crowd and the ISP NANOG crowd here. Content Provider Predictions for 2010 ------------------------------------------------------ Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content forum: "We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" 1. Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold 2. Last mile wireless replaced local loop 3. Botnets (DDOS attacks) are still an issue 4. Non-mechanical (i.e. Flash) Drives replaced internal hard drives on laptops 5. 10% of all cell phones are now video phones 6. We have cell phones that we actually like 7. The U.S. is insignificant traffic wise relative to the rest of the world 8. Most popular question discussed around the table: 'How do we operate business in China?' 9. No online privacy. And the gov't watches everything 10. 18-25 demographic is best reached w/ads on the Internet 11. Next Gen 3D on-line Social Networks are so successful 12. No physical network interfaces are needed 13. We will big brother ourselves (video cams 'who scraped my car?') 14. So many special purpose Internet apps – in car google maps, live traffic updates, etc. 15. So much of our personal information is on the net 16. Video IM emerged as a dominant app 17. P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos – DRM in place and embraced 18. Voice calls are free, bundled with other things [some additional notable predictions from this group, but did not receive simple majority validation] IPTV replaces cable TV IPv6 is adopted Massive Internet Collapse – Metcalfe regurgitates his column Flexible screen deployment SPAM is no longer a problem in 2010 Windows embraces distributed computing Net is not Neutral Powerline Broadband emerges FTTH massive deployment Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------------ We didn't get to do this at the Peering BOF at NANOG, but I did some table discussions outside in the hallways. There there was no voting so I am listing a subset of the predictions that seemed to resonate among a couple dozen or so folks at the hallway tables where question was discussed: "We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" 1. We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops (I assumed wired, but someone else might have been thinking wireless) 2. $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit (other prediction was $30/mbps) 3. Internet traffic is now so heavily localized (as in 75% of telephone calls are across town type of thing but for the Internet) 4. Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly of DSL 5. 90% of Internet bits will be video traffic 6. VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic 7. Private networks predominantly migrate to overlays over the Internet 8. Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs) are serious competitive threat to DSL and Cable Internet 9. Sprint is bought by Time Warner 10. Cable companies form cabal & hookup with Sprint or Level 3 11. Government passes Net Neutrality Law of some flavor 12. Earthlink successfully reinvents themselves as Wireless Metro player in Response to ATT and Verizon 13. 40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content Click Ads. Like Cable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for Internet Content packages. 14. RIAA proposes surcharge on network access (like Canada tax on blank CDs) 15. NetFlix conversion to Internet delivery of movies to Tivo or PC, or open source set top box 16. ISPs will be in pain 17. Last mile (fiber, wireless, …) in metro will be funded by municipal bonds 18. Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo like appliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads based on demographic profiles of viewer 19. Google in charge of 20% of ALL ads (TV, Radio, Billboards, …) 20. Ubiquitous wifi in every metro with wifi roaming agreements 21. Congestion issues drive selective customer acceptance of partial transit offerings 22. IPTV fully embraced by cable cos – VOD – no need for VDR and ala carte video services replace analog frequency 23. Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for the home, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of different demographics. (Some get dressed up for theater, others have kids and can't leave home, others wantto watch on the flight to Tokyo – all watch the new release movie at about the same time) Video Peering -------------------- For what it is worth, some of this resonates with the Peering BOF Video Peering discussion. With YouTube pushing 20Gbps after only one year in existance, and with the 30+ companies that often chase a high profile market such as theirs, we have a potential additional Internet load approaching 600Gbps! YouTube at the BOF said that their traffic is growing at about 20% per month, so it may be reasonable to expect their traffic to double a couple times over the next year. Even if you discount the competitors traffic flows, video still appears as a *massive* traffic volume coming into the Peering Ecosystem over the next bunch of months. And yes, they are willing to peer the traffic for free so you eyeball networks and they (YouTube) don't have to pay transit fees on the traffic. Bill -- //------------------------------------------------ // William B. Norton <wbn@equinix.com> // Co-Founder and Chief Technical Liaison, Equinix // GSM Mobile: 650-315-8635 // Skype, Y!IM: williambnorton
### On Tue, 20 Jun 2006 09:13:16 -0700, "William B. Norton" ### <bill.norton@gmail.com> casually decided to expound upon nanog@merit.edu ### the following thoughts about "Internet 2010 - Predictions for 2010 from ### a Content Forum and NANOG 37 in San Jose": WBN> Content Provider Predictions for 2010 WBN> ------------------------------------------------------ WBN> Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content forum: WBN> WBN> "We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how WBN> remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" I think it might have been hedged upon in the responses you heard but I'm suprised it wasn't specifically mentioned that there will be a rise in customized content aggregation at the consumer level supported by mobility aspects. Think of RSS feeds but on steroids. This will be promoted by the next generation of portable PIM and communication devices (3G/4G?). It will incorporate the ability to rogram or dynamically figure out a "workflow" for pulling content (or setting up content services for specific push) and will be situationally aware for the user so as to present the right things in the right format at the right time through the right interface. A simple example: You're walking down the street and get hungry. You pick up your phone and "tell" it to find you a nearby restaurant that serves gyros. The phone would consult from its local cache of inromation and if it throws a miss, will go out to one of the local searches and after exchanging your locale, will get the names and locations of several restaurants in the area. It will also have gotten the directions to them from where you are. It also knows that you are on foot so it will calculate several transportation options depending on what's available including walking, taxi, busses, trams, etc. Say you pick the bus. it will then determine where the busses are and when the next available one will arrive by consulting the bus service's information server which tracks bus locations via GPS. It can even be smart enough to determine if that bus will have seats available by a combination of usage pattern data gathered over the last week for the time of day and the current number of riders on the bus. It will then signal the bus to stop at the closest stop to you and also tell you how to get to the bus stop. At the same time, it'll go out and do other things like search for the wait-time at the restaurant, pull up a menu, gather reviews of the food, make reservations if necessary... etc. Now mind you that you might not use all the information that's being gathered but it will still be available. In addition to performing these tasks for just the immediate need, the phone may also be constantly updating itself with news stories (in a multimedia format) so you can read during your trip to the restaurant. If an accident occurs that's along your bus route, it will determine if the bus service intends to reroute around it and also calculate alternate routes for you so you can get off at another stop and take some other form of multimodal transportation to your destination. Although I've just describe the function of but one device in one specific situation, you can see the content access is numerous and diverse. And of course all this information will need to be compiled and presented in a unified integrated format that's easy for the user to quickly digest without getting information overload. Now maybe the device doesn't do this all by itself. Maybe it talks to an information broker service which simply streams the precompiled content back. Now despite everything I've written above, I've only very lightly touched the surface. WBN> Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010 WBN> ------------------------------------------------------------------ WBN> WBN> "We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are WBN> commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically WBN> that:" Given the example from above, content providers will require more geodiversity/georedundancy. Local peering will become increasingly important... especially with the wireless carriers. ISPs will have to become more savvy with regards to IP mobility. This will probably be the eventual driver for native IPv6 deployment. Customers will engage in more dynamic traffic shaping at the CPE. There will be an increase in service-based peering clubs/unions. There will be ann increase in demand for seamless layer-1 handoff. The ability to go from wireline to wireless to content push direct to a third-party display and input interface will become smoother regardless of how the end devices are network homed. -- /*===================[ Jake Khuon <khuon@NEEBU.Net> ]======================+ | Packet Plumber, Network Engineers /| / [~ [~ |) | | --------------- | | for Effective Bandwidth Utilisation / |/ [_ [_ |) |_| N E T W O R K S | +=========================================================================*/
Wow - so many private messages surrounding this. I'll summarize and group the comments across the predictions below, but first answer some of the questions I received. One suggestion was to bury these in a timevault to be opened at NANOG in 2010. Another suggestion was to bury these where I want the crops to grow. Thanks for that suggestion. Of course, predictions are not certain as this person put it: "Unlike market focus groups which pick the color of the product, the error rate of groups of humans predicting the future is multiplicative" Several of you asked who provided the data. These were engineers, peering coordinators, some Director and VP level folks, network planners and architects from Content and ISP Companies that you probably all have heard about of and a handful of those you have not. There was no glue sniffing involved. Keep in mind too that to answer the initial question, the events had to be both *plausible *and* remarkable* to the group assembled around the table in 2010. I personally think many of these in the list fit the criteria, but a few of the usual suspects said that they believe almost none of these things are plausible (Stating this politely). Below are a couple data points from the field surrounding the predictions for 2010. Content Provider Predictions for 2010 ------------------------------------------------------ Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content forum: "We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" 1. Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold 2. Last mile wireless replaced local loop These first two were echod by both the Content and ISP folks with a variation only regarding the degree. Personally I don't see the local loop going away in the next 4 years but a new wireless offering that is being taken up big time is possible. Video traffic for YouTube was said at the Peering BOF to grow 20%/month so there is a possibly compounding growth rate here, so maybe we would debate the degree of and length of the scaling growth. Clearly 100 fold increase would be remarkable. 3. Botnets (DDOS attacks) are still an issue I'm surprised noone protested this one - if botnets are still a problem for the much large capacity 2010 internet then we may have a much more significant problem to deal with. 4. Non-mechanical (i.e. Flash) Drives replaced internal hard drives on laptops One comment that this is not realisitic. 5. 10% of all cell phones are now video phones 6. We have cell phones that we actually like There appears to be debate surrounding this one - the person positing this believes all the cell phones on the market suck (everyone has some complaint about whatever phone and provider they have) and that there will be a PDA + service that overcomes these objections and become the new thing. 7. The U.S. is insignificant traffic wise relative to the rest of the world 8. Most popular question discussed around the table: 'How do we operate business in China?'
9. No online privacy. And the gov't watches everything
<anonymous note to me> the future is now: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/06/21/BUG9VJHB9C1.DTL and http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/06/21/att_nsa/
10. 18-25 demographic is best reached w/ads on the Internet 11. Next Gen 3D on-line Social Networks are so successful 12. No physical network interfaces are needed
For laptops, phones, desktops, upto the DSL modem that's certainly the case today. Beyond that we are into the wireless last mile stuff.
13. We will big brother ourselves (video cams 'who scraped my car?') 14. So many special purpose Internet apps – in car google maps, live traffic updates, etc. 15. So much of our personal information is on the net
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060620/ap_on_bi_ge/police_phone_data
16. Video IM emerged as a dominant app 17. P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos – DRM in place and embraced
Most comments back suggested that the studios don't move this fast releasing their crown jewels to unfamiliar and historically shameful technology.
18. Voice calls are free, bundled with other things
Softbank in Japan does this now at least to other Softbank customers, and pennies per minute elsewhere. Come on, phone calls are almost free already!
[some additional notable predictions from this group, but did not receive simple majority validation] IPTV replaces cable TV IPv6 is adopted Massive Internet Collapse – Metcalfe regurgitates his column Flexible screen deployment SPAM is no longer a problem in 2010 Windows embraces distributed computing Net is not Neutral Powerline Broadband emerges FTTH massive deployment
Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------------ We didn't get to do this at the Peering BOF at NANOG, but I did some table discussions outside in the hallways. There there was no voting so I am listing a subset of the predictions that seemed to resonate among a couple dozen or so folks at the hallway tables where question was discussed:
"We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" 1. We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops (I assumed wired, but someone else might have been thinking wireless)
OK OK ! 10G wireless to the laptop is probably not plausible by 2010.
2. $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit (other prediction was $30/mbps)
Even the harh critics thought this was likely, the $5 transit price availibilty across the US
3. Internet traffic is now so heavily localized (as in 75% of telephone calls are across town type of thing but for the Internet) 4. Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly of DSL 5. 90% of Internet bits will be video traffic 6. VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic 7. Private networks predominantly migrate to overlays over the Internet 8. Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs) are serious competitive threat to DSL and Cable Internet 9. Sprint is bought by Time Warner 10. Cable companies form cabal & hookup with Sprint or Level 3 11. Government passes Net Neutrality Law of some flavor 12. Earthlink successfully reinvents themselves as Wireless Metro player in Response to ATT and Verizon 13. 40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content Click Ads. Like Cable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for Internet Content packages. 14. RIAA proposes surcharge on network access (like Canada tax on blank CDs) 15. NetFlix conversion to Internet delivery of movies to Tivo or PC, or open source set top box 16. ISPs will be in pain
Comment: "As opposed to now when we are living high on the hog?"
17. Last mile (fiber, wireless, …) in metro will be funded by municipal bonds 18. Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo like appliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads based on demographic profiles of viewer 19. Google in charge of 20% of ALL ads (TV, Radio, Billboards, …) 20. Ubiquitous wifi in every metro with wifi roaming agreements
The comments back said that this will certainly not be done by 2010 but maybe some initial movement towards this goal.
21. Congestion issues drive selective customer acceptance of partial transit offerings 22. IPTV fully embraced by cable cos – VOD – no need for VDR and ala carte video services replace analog frequency 23. Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for the home, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of different demographics. (Some get dressed up for theater, others have kids and can't leave home, others wantto watch on the flight to Tokyo – all watch the new release movie at about the same time)
Video Peering -------------------- For what it is worth, some of this resonates with the Peering BOF Video Peering discussion. With YouTube pushing 20Gbps after only one year in existance, and with the 30+ companies that often chase a high profile market such as theirs, we have a potential additional Internet load approaching 600Gbps! YouTube at the BOF said that their traffic is growing at about 20% per month, so it may be reasonable to expect their traffic to double a couple times over the next year. Even if you discount the competitors traffic flows, video still appears as a *massive* traffic volume coming into the Peering Ecosystem over the next bunch of months.
There has been some dicussion on various IRC channels asking "why is video peering" separately noted from regular old "Content" being peered. I tend to differentiate it solely because the volume of this traffic is so large and expected to grow as codecs march to convey HDTV quality video over the net, either on demand or streamed to a box for buffered delivery or downloaded. The point is the traffic volume for this type of peered traffic is so large and it will grow over time, which makes it interesting to watch from a peering research perspective.
And yes, they are willing to peer the traffic for free so you eyeball networks and they (YouTube) don't have to pay transit fees on the traffic.
Bill -- //------------------------------------------------ // William B. Norton <wbn@equinix.com> // Co-Founder and Chief Technical Liaison, Equinix // GSM Mobile: 650-315-8635 // Skype, Y!IM: williambnorton
-- //------------------------------------------------ // William B. Norton <wbn@equinix.com> // Co-Founder and Chief Technical Liaison, Equinix // GSM Mobile: 650-315-8635 // Skype, Y!IM: williambnorton
participants (2)
-
Jake Khuon -
William B. Norton