with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos. randy
On Tue, Feb 01, 2011, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
I think having a graph that reached full and stays there will be quite powerful. :) Adrian
On Tue, Feb 01, 2011 at 04:10:59PM +0800, Adrian Chadd wrote:
On Tue, Feb 01, 2011, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
I think having a graph that reached full and stays there will be quite powerful. :)
Adrian
perhaps of more interest would be to see what the injection rate is ... there has been some speculation that holes/more specifics would become more prevalent. but that might be someone elses research... --bill
On 1 feb 2011, at 9:02, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
Enjoy this while it lasts then: http://www.bgpexpert.com/ianaglobalpool2.php
All manner of dooms day-like stories and headlines tomorrow..I dare predict :-) http://www.cio.co.ke/Top-Stories/address-allocation-kicks-off-ipv4-endgame.h... Raymond Macharia On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 2:31 PM, Iljitsch van Beijnum <iljitsch@muada.com>wrote:
On 1 feb 2011, at 9:02, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
Enjoy this while it lasts then:
The individual RIR graphs won't be around long enough to be worth the effort... ;) FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for /24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues. Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the end of the year? Tony
-----Original Message----- From: Randy Bush [mailto:randy@psg.com] Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:02 AM To: Geoff Huston Cc: NANOG Operators' Group Subject: ipv4's last graph
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
randy
We have been doing it for a few months. http://www.lacnic.net/en/registro/espacio-disponible-ipv4.html We are working in a new model to forecast the available space over time and in providing the data so anybody can do their own graphs. Also APNIC has some very useful data: http://www.apnic.net/community/ipv4-exhaustion/graphical-information Regards, -as On 1 Feb 2011, at 11:18, Tony Hain wrote:
The individual RIR graphs won't be around long enough to be worth the effort... ;)
FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for /24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues. Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the end of the year?
Tony
-----Original Message----- From: Randy Bush [mailto:randy@psg.com] Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:02 AM To: Geoff Huston Cc: NANOG Operators' Group Subject: ipv4's last graph
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
randy
FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for /24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues.
this is not the murdoch press or fox news. i very much doubt chaos will ensue. our job is to see that chaos does not ensue. you will learn to love nat444 :)
Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the end of the year?
we're ops, often stick in the mud traditionalists and even somewhat supersitious. we've had ipv4 graphs for over 15 years. we like them. geoff is mr graph. we like his grphs. heck, you have even used them. randy
On Feb 1, 2011, at 3:08 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the end of the year?
we're ops, often stick in the mud traditionalists and even somewhat supersitious. we've had ipv4 graphs for over 15 years. we like them. geoff is mr graph. we like his grphs. heck, you have even used them.
If you're standing near the edge of a cliff, the difference between 1 inch and 6 inches is significant. Vendors are watching from the distance, saying "he's at the edge of the cliff!". But to the guy standing there, it matters. Plus, I like graphs. Cheers, -Benson
On 2/1/11 1:08 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for /24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues.
this is not the murdoch press or fox news. i very much doubt chaos will ensue. our job is to see that chaos does not ensue. you will learn to love nat444 :)
the aportionment of scarce resources though market signals whether direct or indirect is actually something humans are rather good at despite the occasional failure. the engineer is the person who given the available resources comes with a workable solution.
Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the end of the year?
we're ops, often stick in the mud traditionalists and even somewhat supersitious. we've had ipv4 graphs for over 15 years. we like them. geoff is mr graph. we like his grphs. heck, you have even used them.
the prboability distribution with the error bars is a pretty useful tool to throw over the wall to management so that they know how long they have to get their affairs in order.
randy
the prboability distribution with the error bars is a pretty useful tool to throw over the wall to management so that they know how long they have to get their affairs in order.
i suspect it's more like most folk should save a gif so they can say "i warned you," when they need a bunch of money to bail the deaf management's asses out in a year. rndy
On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
but of course. http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month. The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain. Geoff
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month.
brilliant! and damned useful! there's a reason you get the big bucks. thanks. really appreciated. randy
On Wed, 02 Feb 2011 06:25:18 +0900 Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month.
brilliant! and damned useful!
there's a reason you get the big bucks. thanks. really appreciated.
(I'm plonked by Randy, so I doubt he will get this. I don't necessarily care too much about that.) I doubt Geoff is getting the "big bucks" that he could get at a few other places in the region. He used to work for the incumbent telco in .au, and based on what the last CEO was paid, he'd probably have been on a very good wicket these days if he'd chosen to stay there. He didn't. (Randy, if you see this, you do add a lot of value to the community. However, I think your knee-jerk, childish and schoolyard reactions would also loose you a lot of the respect that you've earned from the work that you've done. Please just accept that not everybody will always agree with your opinions, despite how informed and experienced they are.)
On Feb 1, 2011, at 9:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:
On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
but of course.
I can almost hear the cutting and pasting going on across the globe with this. - Mark
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month.
The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff
On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 6:11 PM, Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net> wrote:
On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
but of course.
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month.
The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff, Very nice work! In order to further enhance it, LACNIC exhaustion policy specifies /12 instead of /8, as specified in http://lacnic.net/en/politicas/manual11.html, so it will probably take a few more months to such a policy be in force. Rubens
* Geoff Huston
Ohh, very nice, Geoff! Thank you! A few questions, though: 1) The graph shows the most probable APNIC depletion date to be in July. However your site at <http://ipv4.potaroo.net> says 25-Sep-2011. What's the reason for this discrepancy? 2) Do you intend to update the graph daily? I noticed that it didn't change this morning along with all your other graphs. 3) May I copy it into my own presentations about IPv4 and IPv6? Regards, -- Tore Anderson Redpill Linpro AS - http://www.redpill-linpro.com/ Tel: +47 21 54 41 27
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf Tony
-----Original Message----- From: Geoff Huston [mailto:gih@apnic.net] Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:12 PM To: Randy Bush Cc: NANOG Operators' Group Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :- )/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
but of course.
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month.
The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony
Two things: 1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ 2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request? But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^; Matt
On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ Not wishing to advertise google but
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-po... and http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-po... works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer Vince
2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;
Matt
-----Original Message----- From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary@unsane.co.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ Not wishing to advertise google but
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- rir-pools.pdf and http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- rir-pools-zoom.pdf
works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
Vince
2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation' policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something readable.
But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;
Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0
Matt
On Wed, Feb 02, 2011 at 10:11:48AM -0800, Tony Hain said:
For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
13:13 < dec0de> africa is where it's at 13:15 < moebius_> Dear Sirs, I am the son of the deposed Prime Minister of Nigeria. We are in possession of 93,208,512 IP addresses and wish to request your assistance... /kc -- Ken Chase - ken@heavycomputing.ca skype:kenchase23 +1 416 897 6284 Toronto Canada Heavy Computing - Clued bandwidth, colocation and managed linux VPS @151 Front St. W.
Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out" policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving at 1 /8 left as depletion. Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies? [1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10> [2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1> [3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
-----Original Message----- From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary@unsane.co.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ Not wishing to advertise google but
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- rir-pools.pdf and http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- rir-pools-zoom.pdf
works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
Vince
2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation' policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something readable.
But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;
Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0
Matt
-----Original Message----- From: Richard Barnes [mailto:richard.barnes@gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 10:44 AM To: Tony Hain Cc: Vincent Hoffman; nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out" policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving at 1 /8 left as depletion.
The /8 that applies to those policies has not been allocated yet ... ask again tomorrow. Would it make more sense to mark the graph at 1 with an asterisk, or just leave those out of this graph all together? If you care about how well the policy is managing the end of the pool, then marking 1 is the right thing, while if you only care about when 'old policy' stops then it makes more sense to just leave them off. Tony
Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies?
[1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10> [2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1> [3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html>
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
-----Original Message----- From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary@unsane.co.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ Not wishing to advertise google but
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
rir-pools.pdf and
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
rir-pools-zoom.pdf
works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
Vince
2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation' policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something readable.
But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;
Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0
Matt
Currently there is no policy in ARIN that would do that short of the last /10, so, the line should change at 1/4 of the last /8. Owen On Feb 2, 2011, at 10:43 AM, Richard Barnes wrote:
Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out" policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving at 1 /8 left as depletion.
Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies?
[1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10> [2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1> [3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html>
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
-----Original Message----- From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary@unsane.co.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote:
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net> wrote:
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ Not wishing to advertise google but
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- rir-pools.pdf and http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- rir-pools-zoom.pdf
works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg
Vince
2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation' policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something readable.
But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;
Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0
Matt
participants (20)
-
Adrian Chadd -
Antonio Querubin -
Arturo Servin -
Benson Schliesser -
bmanning＠vacation.karoshi.com -
Geoff Huston -
Iljitsch van Beijnum -
Joel Jaeggli -
Ken Chase -
Mark Smith -
Mark Townsley -
Matthew Petach -
Owen DeLong -
Randy Bush -
Raymond Macharia -
Richard Barnes -
Rubens Kuhl -
Tony Hain -
Tore Anderson -
Vincent Hoffman