RE: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land. there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs. there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
-----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Mark D. Bodley Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 2:44 PM To: 'Stephen J. Wilcox'; Matt Bazan Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: RE: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
Matt, your questions seem extremely prejudiced to a determined outcome. In my opinion resellers are in the long run going to lose because of lack of tangible assets (there is my Bias, on the table. I have my own facilities, and equipment). However because pure resellers lack the facilities they can be resellers(and often are) of whatever the technology of the day is. Strangely, many resellers, grow into facilities based carriers, but if they do not, then they can always move to the next thing. If you sold ISDN, in the 90's, and you knew how to walk someone through configuring their pipeline, you were better than Bell (read PSI Net). If you could accurately test, and deliver DSL, to a client 3-5 years ago, (read COVAD) you were better than Bell. In the future, who knows what it will be, (my bet is wireless, and we all cook like chickens in a Showtime rotisserie) the prevailing trait of those that have been in this for a long time is adaptation. There was a day when selling access off an ISDN connection was doable. I got out of the straight access market in the late 90's. I provide, and resell connectivity, with static routes to applications I host, or maintain. Hopefully the straight resellers of today will be selling microwave, or implant connectivity, or whatever in a few years. Bottom-line public or not, Mom, and Pop, or not no matter what you do in this business you have to be ready to adapt. If you are huge and don't catch the next wave you could be just as dead as the smaller guys that don't catch that next wave.
Mark D. Bodley President Cyrix Systems m@cyrixsys.com www.cyrixsys.com
-----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Stephen J. Wilcox Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 4:12 PM To: Matt Bazan Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
On Wed, 11 May 2005, Matt Bazan wrote:
why in the world would anyone want to purchase dsl from a private reseller when i can get 4mb down 384 up from comcast for $25? think you dsl resellers out there are doomed. in fact, just a matter of time before most of you isps are down the toilet. im reminded of the mom and pop grocery store phenomenon that has now been replaced by the kohls, a&p, whole foods etc. of course there will always be niche markets but this is less applicable for a pure commodity like bandwidth. yeah, i suppose you'll say something about value added services and such and you may have a point but i doubt that will keep the ship afloat for long.
Matt, first whats your affiliation and experience in this arena? That these markets exist and more profitably so than the large carriers suggest the problems you are raising dont exist.
What is your theory based on, you only cite your personal preference to buy from Comcast which cannot be said to be indicative of the market. Grocery stores are not comparable, this is a different industry and different market. Also bandwidth is not a pure commodity, and DSL is not pure bandwidth.
I think your argument is at best uninformed, at worst non-existent.. you need to provide some references, examples, figures, whatever.. else this is little more than trolling.
Steve
On May 11, 2005, at 6:02 PM, Matt Bazan wrote:
bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land. there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs. there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
If I had a nickel for every time someone told me everything would be: * Consolidated * Virtualized * Automated * Etc., etc. I would have enough to buy an ISP. :-) Add to that every time someone told me the "small guys" would get pushed out, or that "bells will own everything", or that "<insert favorite analyst catch-phrase>" and it gets really old really fast. The market / industry / whatever will do things you will not expect. Learn to deal with it. -- TTFN, patrick
On 5/11/05, Matt Bazan <Mbazan@onelegal.com> wrote:
bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land. there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs. there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
history has taught us otherwise. aaron.glenn
"For every day a company does the same thing they did yesterday, they will be in business one day fewer" ... or something like that, - bri Matt Bazan wrote:
bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land. there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs. there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
-----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Mark D. Bodley Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 2:44 PM To: 'Stephen J. Wilcox'; Matt Bazan Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: RE: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
Matt, your questions seem extremely prejudiced to a determined outcome. In my opinion resellers are in the long run going to lose because of lack of tangible assets (there is my Bias, on the table. I have my own facilities, and equipment). However because pure resellers lack the facilities they can be resellers(and often are) of whatever the technology of the day is. Strangely, many resellers, grow into facilities based carriers, but if they do not, then they can always move to the next thing. If you sold ISDN, in the 90's, and you knew how to walk someone through configuring their pipeline, you were better than Bell (read PSI Net). If you could accurately test, and deliver DSL, to a client 3-5 years ago, (read COVAD) you were better than Bell. In the future, who knows what it will be, (my bet is wireless, and we all cook like chickens in a Showtime rotisserie) the prevailing trait of those that have been in this for a long time is adaptation. There was a day when selling access off an ISDN connection was doable. I got out of the straight access market in the late 90's. I provide, and resell connectivity, with static routes to applications I host, or maintain. Hopefully the straight resellers of today will be selling microwave, or implant connectivity, or whatever in a few years. Bottom-line public or not, Mom, and Pop, or not no matter what you do in this business you have to be ready to adapt. If you are huge and don't catch the next wave you could be just as dead as the smaller guys that don't catch that next wave.
Mark D. Bodley President Cyrix Systems m@cyrixsys.com www.cyrixsys.com
-----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Stephen J. Wilcox Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 4:12 PM To: Matt Bazan Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
On Wed, 11 May 2005, Matt Bazan wrote:
why in the world would anyone want to purchase dsl from a private reseller when i can get 4mb down 384 up from comcast for
$25? think
you dsl resellers out there are doomed. in fact, just a matter of time before most of you isps are down the toilet. im
reminded of the
mom and pop grocery store phenomenon that has now been
replaced by the
kohls, a&p, whole foods etc. of course there will always be niche markets but this is less applicable for a pure commodity like bandwidth. yeah, i suppose you'll say something about value added services and such and you may have a point but i doubt that
will keep the ship afloat for long.
Matt, first whats your affiliation and experience in this arena? That these markets exist and more profitably so than the large carriers suggest the problems you are raising dont exist.
What is your theory based on, you only cite your personal preference to buy from Comcast which cannot be said to be indicative of the market. Grocery stores are not comparable, this is a different industry and different market. Also bandwidth is not a pure commodity, and DSL is not pure bandwidth.
I think your argument is at best uninformed, at worst non-existent.. you need to provide some references, examples, figures, whatever.. else this is little more than trolling.
Steve
-- Brian Russo <brian@entropy.net> (808) 277 8623
While I'm not claiming this is the beginning of a trend, last week a former dialup customer who left ShaysNet for Comcast several months ago returned to our dialups AND brought along a friend who had never been one of our customers before but who was fed up with Comcast. Both said that Comcast was too expensive (neither are 'power users'), the rates go up too quickly (twice the inflation rate?), and Comcast had greater technical problems than we do. It probably helped that I allowed former customers who had switched to Comcast to use our DNS when Comcast's was unreachable. Oh, by the way, did I mention that no one seems to like Comcast's technical support - I was getting calls from former customers who were on Comcast when their network was down. David Leonard ShaysNet
Wow, I hope not Matt. That is a VERY Bleak outlook. Mark D. Bodley President Cyrix Systems m@cyrixsys.com www.cyrixsys.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Matt Bazan Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 6:02 PM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: RE: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years? bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land. there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs. there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
-----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Mark D. Bodley Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 2:44 PM To: 'Stephen J. Wilcox'; Matt Bazan Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: RE: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
Matt, your questions seem extremely prejudiced to a determined outcome. In my opinion resellers are in the long run going to lose because of lack of tangible assets (there is my Bias, on the table. I have my own facilities, and equipment). However because pure resellers lack the facilities they can be resellers(and often are) of whatever the technology of the day is. Strangely, many resellers, grow into facilities based carriers, but if they do not, then they can always move to the next thing. If you sold ISDN, in the 90's, and you knew how to walk someone through configuring their pipeline, you were better than Bell (read PSI Net). If you could accurately test, and deliver DSL, to a client 3-5 years ago, (read COVAD) you were better than Bell. In the future, who knows what it will be, (my bet is wireless, and we all cook like chickens in a Showtime rotisserie) the prevailing trait of those that have been in this for a long time is adaptation. There was a day when selling access off an ISDN connection was doable. I got out of the straight access market in the late 90's. I provide, and resell connectivity, with static routes to applications I host, or maintain. Hopefully the straight resellers of today will be selling microwave, or implant connectivity, or whatever in a few years. Bottom-line public or not, Mom, and Pop, or not no matter what you do in this business you have to be ready to adapt. If you are huge and don't catch the next wave you could be just as dead as the smaller guys that don't catch that next wave.
Mark D. Bodley President Cyrix Systems m@cyrixsys.com www.cyrixsys.com
-----Original Message----- From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of Stephen J. Wilcox Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2005 4:12 PM To: Matt Bazan Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: what will all you who work for private isp's be doing in a few years?
On Wed, 11 May 2005, Matt Bazan wrote:
why in the world would anyone want to purchase dsl from a private reseller when i can get 4mb down 384 up from comcast for $25? think you dsl resellers out there are doomed. in fact, just a matter of time before most of you isps are down the toilet. im reminded of the mom and pop grocery store phenomenon that has now been replaced by the kohls, a&p, whole foods etc. of course there will always be niche markets but this is less applicable for a pure commodity like bandwidth. yeah, i suppose you'll say something about value added services and such and you may have a point but i doubt that will keep the ship afloat for long.
Matt, first whats your affiliation and experience in this arena? That these markets exist and more profitably so than the large carriers suggest the problems you are raising dont exist.
What is your theory based on, you only cite your personal preference to buy from Comcast which cannot be said to be indicative of the market. Grocery stores are not comparable, this is a different industry and different market. Also bandwidth is not a pure commodity, and DSL is not pure bandwidth.
I think your argument is at best uninformed, at worst non-existent.. you need to provide some references, examples, figures, whatever.. else this is little more than trolling.
Steve
On Wed, 11 May 2005 15:02:29 PDT, Matt Bazan said:
bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land. there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs. there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
Grandma Tilly wants to put a web page up with pics of the grandkids so Uncle Charlie (who's stuck guarding a sand dune outside Baghdad at the moment) can keep in touch. Google has to catch so many hits/second that they have a dozen hosting farms with multiple tens of thousands of servers at each farm. Yeah. One single infinitely configurable web hosting solution is going to work for both of them, and they will both be able to configure it without assistance. (You don't like that example, pick any two other diametrically opposed customer bases). And "virtualized"? ASP (Application Service Providers) were going to Change The Computing Environment. Googling for "application service provider" gets 2.3 *million* hits. Their *actual* impact? You tell me.
And "virtualized"? ASP (Application Service Providers) were going to Change The Computing Environment. Googling for "application service provider" gets 2.3 *million* hits. Their *actual* impact? You tell me.
Their impact can't be measured because it spread out into niche markets. Like blogs and wikis and all those photo sites. And my company's network with 1,000 customers and PoPs in 20 countries all doing 100% ASP traffic. ASPs businesses are thriving. However, the crystal ball gazers who hyped them back in the late 90's just got it all wrong because they thought ASPs would displace MS-Office desktops and SAP installations. The fundamentals of the ASP industry is that there are companies providing their customers mission critical services over a shared IP network, whether it is the public Internet or a single operator network like ours. It's big business and if you dig into what your customers are actually doing with their Internet connections, you will find it there. --Michael Dillon
On Fri, 13 May 2005 11:23:14 BST, Michael.Dillon@radianz.com said:
Their impact can't be measured because it spread out into niche markets. Like blogs and wikis and all those photo sites. And my company's network with 1,000 customers and PoPs in 20 countries all doing 100% ASP traffic. ASPs businesses are thriving. However, the crystal ball gazers who hyped them back in the late 90's just got it all wrong because they thought ASPs would displace MS-Office desktops and SAP installations.
Exactly what *I* predicted - there's going to be *plenty* of room for small flexible operators in niche markets, at both ends of the pipe. In fact, there's almost certainly money to be made by leveraging the fact that Comcast wants to do 4M/384K/$25 - the number of companies making money from finding innovative ways to sell you electricity is *far* outweighed by the number of companies finding new ways to make money based on the fact that somebody *else* is selling you electricity. The only people who need to worry are the ones whos business model is "We made money selling 'just pipes' in that market 5 years ago, and we're doing it now, so it will still be OK 5-10 years from now". 98% of *those* companies are in for a rude awakening. ;)
bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land.
I've heard this over and over again, and it's just not happened. I'm still one of the few 100% facilities based dial ISPs left in Iowa, and if I have to be reduced to being a reseller to survive, I'll just close shop. But I don't see that happening. Sure, dial up will eventually be a niche service, and that's fine, as most of my revenue will be from other sources by the time that happens. If I ever have to become a dial up reseller, it will be because my core business has moved in another direction.
there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs.
Are you in a marketing department of some BigCo? "Let's produce a single product that 100% of all customers can use, and that can change depending on the latest fad of the day, and we'll rule the marketplace!" If it were possible, wouldn't someone have already done that? It sounds like something that would make for a good Dilbert comic strip.
there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
You must be new to this game. :-) In Capitolism, there is always an innovator. They drive technology forward, and then the mainstream follows. You're under the false assumption that there will reach a point where there is nothing to innovate in the areas of last mile IP net access, and consolidation will make a single, regulated monopolistic provider. I think we know that scenario won't be allowed to happen. By the federal government regulators (I suppose that depends on the FCC), by state regulators, or competition/capitalism in general. BigCableCo, and BigTelco can fight over customers all they want, I'll be happy with the table scraps. And since "single miracle product that can be everything for everyone, and perfectly meets everyone's needs" doesn't exist, and won't ever exist, there will be plenty of scraps to be had. -Jerry
participants (9)
-
Aaron Glenn -
Brian Russo -
Jerry Pasker -
M. David Leonard -
Mark D. Bodley -
Matt Bazan -
Michael.Dillon＠radianz.com -
Patrick W. Gilmore -
Valdis.Kletnieks＠vt.edu