On Thu, 29 Aug 1996 01:47:38 -0700 Vadim Antonov wrote:

Generally speaking, at least 70% of users already have metered access of that kind (in form of per-hour connect time charges), so in this sense Internet is metered already, and was like that for years. Obviously that's not "metering" Metcalfe et al are calling for.

(BTW, i know providers who do attempt to charge differently for local and international traffic by counting packets, but they have developed quite a lot of software and have the financial and legal framework to support it. The fact that they don't have anything faster than E-1 helps a lot, too.)

I think you are confusing dialup and leased line capacity planning models. They are inherently different. If I have a POP in City A with a T1 to my backbone, I pretty much know how many dialups I can support. I do not say that 53 28.8kb dialup users will saturate my T1 since statistical models show that will not happen. Every ISP has their own stats which may range from 200-1000 simultaneous users depending on their pricing structure and how serious they are about being an ISP. But I do not have to worry that a lone user running CuSeeMe (or even SmellU/SmellMe (see realaroma.com/realaroma.cgi) :-)) since the worst they can do is max out at 28.8kb on the T1 line. On the other hand, if I have a number of leased line customers connected to that T1 POP, some are 64kb, some are 256kb and some are T1, then my model alters since the T1 users can indeed max at the full speed of the line and others can utilize 15% of the line as compared to 1% for a dialup user. Yes, the statistical model shows they will even out, some will use 1%, some 10% and others will use 80% but in the end it all evens out. But that lone wolf T1 client can indeed saturate my line, especially if it is a garage ISP with 1000 users from the neighborhood offering flat $9.95 and having a modem bank of 96 modems. Or a small startup with every user doing RealAudio during the day. Just look at the example of the NANOG poster who had to move ISPs since his thruput was high enough to double his costs so he moved to a flat rate ISP. Those flat rate ISPs will quickly load up with these thruput heavy users and in the end either lose money every year or go bankrupt. The trend is for flat rate dialup and usage based rates for leased line. Those ISPs that ignore that trend will not last. The kicker is Cable/VSAT. A consumer that is offered 2Mb-10mb to the home via cable or DirecPc (bidirectional) for say $50 flat rate will single-handedly be able to overrun the backbone line of the POP. Those ISPs that intend to charge flat rates for high speed home usage are "hoping" that the usage pattern will be like dialup users rather than leased line users. Not! It won't be long before that garage ISP with 96 28.8kb modems and a T1 line moves it to his bedroom and figures out how to connect that modem bank to his 2Mb/sec cable TV Internet system. And all you need is one like that in every neighborhood of a thousand. But when I specify usage based rates I am referring to a simple meter like the gas company, not a complex meter like the phone company. As someone else stated, telco's are approaching 50% costs for billing due to their overwhelming complexity between local, long distance, international, time of day, length of call, services used, etc. Gas and most electric companies charge a flat rate per usage, no matter what time of day you use it. Their billing costs are far less than telcos. ISPs, in order to survive, had best not follow the telco model of billing complexity, but instead follow the utility company model of simple billing. KISS.

--vadim

Hank