Any recent predictions for routing table growth?
Hi, I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out? Thanks Bradley
Geoff Huston's has http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ which goes up to the present. On Mon, Nov 03, 2008 at 11:38:58PM +0000, Brad Freeman wrote:
Hi,
I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out?
Thanks
Bradley
-- Bradley Huffaker We have all drunk from a well we did not dig CAIDA/SDSC/UCSD - Mark Shields
Thanks for that link Bradley (& Joe who replied off list), but IPv4 address depletion has been discussed to exhaustion and I was looking more for the speculative sizes of the routing table in 5 to 10+ years time such as on page 19 of this presentation www.vaf.net/prezos/*r*rg-prague.pdf is there anything similar available? Thanks 2008/11/4 Bradley Huffaker <bhuffake@caida.org>
Geoff Huston's has http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ which goes up to the present.
Hi,
I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing
On Mon, Nov 03, 2008 at 11:38:58PM +0000, Brad Freeman wrote: table
growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out?
Thanks
Bradley
-- Bradley Huffaker We have all drunk from a well we did not dig CAIDA/SDSC/UCSD - Mark Shields
It doesn't provide you with the breakdown on page 19, but here is the predictions he provides. http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/fig20.png You can ask him for a breakdown if you like. On Tue, Nov 04, 2008 at 12:43:14AM +0000, Bradley Freeman wrote:
Thanks for that link Bradley (& Joe who replied off list), but IPv4 address depletion has been discussed to exhaustion and I was looking more for the speculative sizes of the routing table in 5 to 10+ years time such as on page 19 of this presentation www.vaf.net/prezos/*r*rg-prague.pdf is there anything similar available?
Thanks
2008/11/4 Bradley Huffaker <bhuffake@caida.org>
Geoff Huston's has http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ which goes up to the present.
Hi,
I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing
On Mon, Nov 03, 2008 at 11:38:58PM +0000, Brad Freeman wrote: table
growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out?
Thanks
Bradley
-- Bradley Huffaker We have all drunk from a well we did not dig CAIDA/SDSC/UCSD - Mark Shields
-- Bradley Huffaker We have all drunk from a well we did not dig CAIDA/SDSC/UCSD - Mark Shields
In order to double on schedule from the point where it hit 250k routes the rate of prefix growth needs to be on the order of 2k prefixes a week... I'm operating under the assumption that I'm going to need 500k dfz fib entries around mid 2010 which oddly is about inline with where we thought we'd be when we did the fib bof at nanog 39. Brad Freeman wrote:
Hi,
I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out?
Thanks
Bradley
Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date: http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The gist: June 2008: 247K entries Growth rate: 17% per year So - June 2009: 288k There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says "2.07 * 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 * 10^5. Sigh. I'll get that corrected. :) Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we used routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR report as your starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17% exponential growth would predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report would report 284k prefixes; in reality, it reported 286. So, reasonably close. But you want to start with the # of prefixes that YOU observe, since that's going to be a little different depending on your vantage point. Plug in: STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253) e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253) and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change course. :) On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:
Hi,
I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out?
Thanks
Bradley
Thank you very much David, the Routing Growth estimates is exactly the research I was after. 2008/11/4 David Andersen <dga@cs.cmu.edu>
Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:
Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The gist:
June 2008: 247K entries Growth rate: 17% per year
So - June 2009: 288k
There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says "2.07 * 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 * 10^5. Sigh. I'll get that corrected. :)
Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we used routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR report as your starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17% exponential growth would predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report would report 284k prefixes; in reality, it reported 286. So, reasonably close. But you want to start with the # of prefixes that YOU observe, since that's going to be a little different depending on your vantage point.
Plug in:
STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)
e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)
and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change course. :)
On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:
Hi,
I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or alternative figures out?
Thanks
Bradley
participants (5)
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Brad Freeman -
Bradley Freeman
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Bradley Huffaker -
David Andersen -
Joel Jaeggli