]) by chopin.merit.edu (MOS 3.8.2-GA) with ESMTP id AFK25665; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:33:18 -0400 (EDT) Received: (from steve@localhost) by mrserver.telecomplete.net (8.13.8/8.13.8/Submit) id l6DBXGnV030107; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:33:16 +0100 Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:33:16 +0100 From: Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox@packetrade.com> To: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor@inoc.net> Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted Message-ID: <20070713113316.GL14059@MrServer.telecomplete.net> References: <20070712133910.B8475@sprockets.gibbard.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.07071223 42300.29164@uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407@inoc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130 039220.29164@uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807@inoc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101@bog us.com> <4696D017.7010100@inoc.net> <4696D4A2.2010001@psg.com> <4696EF15.6020704 @utc.edu> <46975C58.4070602@inoc.net> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Disposition: inline In-Reply-To: <46975C58.4070602@inoc.net> User-Agent: Mutt/1.4.2.2i Sender: owner-nanog@merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu X-Loop: nanog X-Junkmail-Status: score=10/50, host=mozart.merit.edu X-Junkmail-SD-Raw: score=unknown, refid=str=0001.0A090204.469763A9.0027:SCGAP167720,ss=1,fgs=0, ip=198.108.1.26, so=2006-09-22 03:48:54, dmn=5.3.14/2007-05-31 Status: RO X-Status: X-Keywords: NonJunk X-UID: 58 On Fri, Jul 13, 2007 at 07:04:56AM -0400, Robert Blayzor wrote:

Jeff Kell wrote:

...

If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable.

* 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-) * 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days * 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k * 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k) * 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m)

Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets not forget that all of the above has been established on existing facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years.

hmm.. at least here in the UK cable companies built out during the 90s in just a few years covering a large % of the population. upgrades in CO technology (DSLA Ms etc) seems to occur every 4-5yrs too so I dont think anything radical can be considered unachievable if you allow 5-10yrs for rollout

You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M, maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So...

30M Is Today +4/5 years 300M Is Today +8/10 years 3G Is Today +12/15 years 30G Is Today +16/20 years

I was thinking about this bandwidth question recently too altho a bit differentl y. 1991 = 14.4kbps dialup 1994 = 28kbps dialup 1995 = 33kbps 1996 = 56kbps dialup 2000 = 512k dsl 2006 = 10Mb cable/dsl approximately speaking we increase an order of magnitude every 5 years, so perha ps we can expect: 2010 = 50Mb 2015 = 500Mb 2020 = 5Gb 2025 = 50Gb so our estimates are similar :) my guess is that wont be achieved with OC768 either.. i dont know if we can go t hat far with copper but it wouldnt surprise me. Steve

If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're running into homes may not be possible for quite some time...

PS -- baud != bps

-Robert