I agree with Henry. Marty -----

...

In the best of circumstances CIDR reduces the growth of routing information to roughly log(#sites). So, yes, in theory over time it could go "to 10 again", but that would require the number of sites that may be well beyond IPv4 (or even any IPng) addressing capabilities.

Your first 5 words say alot. This assumes alot, including customers that don't switch providers and inject more specific routes (this is happening already). You're also assuming that we have a mechanism for aggregating routes for folks who choose not to (or can't, for some reason).

CIDR only buys us a *little* time. Pigs still can't fly :-).

henry