This is a follow-up of something I posted last November. The Enviro-Nazis are at it again, demonstrating why no new power plants have been built here, in the past 15 years. Hunter's Point: San Francisco proposed doubling capacity of the Hunter's Point facility by building a duplicate plant right next to the existing one. Local groups are protesting on environmental grounds. Coyote Valley: San Jose finally approved the construction of the CalPine power plant, needed to support the Santa Teresa, Coyote Valley, and Morgan Hill areas. But, local slow-growth advocates and enviro-nazis are protesting and threatening to sue San Jose. San Jose is asking the state to help smooth things over so that the plant can get built. Between the enviro-nazis and the no-nukes folks (they *are* different groups), California has been dead-locked on power plant construction for almost 20 years. The winning strategy; get locals to buy into the "not in my backyard" sentiment (an easy sell, it worked in stopping prison construction, as well). This, in a population so brainwashed, it actually wants to pay more taxes, even when they are already taxed at the 60% level. Further, this same population thinks that electric cars are the answer to the environmental problem, since they produce no pollution (a fallacy and contradiction of known facts, for those that don't know). In 20 years, CA has gone from a 300% over-capacity to the present shortage. In the past 8 months, energy costs have sky-rocketed 700-900% on only 3% increased usage. The reason; CA doesn't produce enough of its own power and, in the last year, has crossed over to being dependent on energy imports, rather than a supplier of energy. This is a crucial transition that CA was warned about over 25 years ago, when the no-nukes folks were very active here. Obviously, they didn't listen. Estimates are that, it takes two years to bring a fossil-fuel plant online and 3-4 years for a nuclear plant. However, fossil-fuel plants like all plants, have to meet the California Clean Air Act. This means that they may not be allowed to operate, due to environmental constraints, even if they were magically built tomorrow. Remember that California has its own, much stricter, environmental guidelines. These are guidelines that only nuclear plants can approach. Yet, this is in a state that is littered with "nuclear-free" zones. Bottom-line: 1) Expect the paralysis to continue for quite a while and then wait 3-4 years for plants to come online. Reasonable estimates are out past 5 years. 2) Expect increasing levels of power outages, both Summer and Winter (Stage 3, rolling blackouts). 3) Expect increasing energy bills, both in gasoline and electricity, on the order of 300-500%, in the next 5 years. 4) Expect a coming exodus of industry, to anywhere but California. 5) Expect ever more totalitarian regulations, to manage the long-term emergency (you'll have to get a license to plug a toaster into the power-grid). These regulations will not go away, even if we get enough power plants online. 6) Dick Cheney was correct, we need to start building nuclear plants out here. 7) Data centers and colo providers will come under increasing pressure to pay their "fair share" of power generation (this means that they get charged double or even triple). 8) Backup power generators will have to be replaced with units that can stand increased duty-cycles or even provide sustained long-term operation. 9) New colo facilities will have to face increased regulatory pressure and approval cycles. colo prices will go up, as a direct result of these increased costs. 10) Expect to see the return of the wind-fall profits tax, on a permanent basis. Caveats: 1) If the enviro-nazis get "nuked" tomorrow, this will only change the time table, by a year or two. Energy plants are not built by magic. 2) This entire scenario could reduce energy usage growth to about 1-2%. Usage will continue to increase. Thus, exacerbating the problem. 3) Houston could get "nuked", by the feds. -- MHSC is looking forward to doing business outside of California. :) -- ROELAND M.J. MEYER Managing Director Morgan Hill Software Company, Inc. TEL: +001 925 373 3954 FAX: +001 925 373 9781 http://www.mhsc.com mailto: rmeyer@mhsc.com