Re: "ARPANet Co-Founder Predicts An Internet Crisis" (slashdot)
Isn't this same Dr. Larry Roberts who 5 years ago was claiming, "based on data from the 19 largest ISPs," or something like that, that Internet traffic was growing 4x each year, and so the world should rush to order his latest toys (from Caspian Networks, at that time)? http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/roberts.caspian.txt All the evidence points to the growth rate at that time being around 2x per year. And now Larry Roberts claims that current Internet traffic is around 2x per year, while there is quite a bit of evidence that the correct figure is closer to 1.5x per year, http://www.dtc.umn.edu/mints Andrew Odlyzko
On Thu Oct 25, Alex Pilosov wrote:
On Thu, 25 Oct 2007, Paul Vixie wrote:
"Dr. Larry Roberts, co-founder of the ARPANET and inventor of packet switching, predicts the Internet is headed for a major crisis in an article published on the Internet Evolution web site today. Internet traffic is now growing much more quickly than the rate at which router cost is decreasing, Roberts says. At current growth levels, the cost of deploying Internet capacity to handle new services like social networking, gaming, video, VOIP, and digital entertainment will double every three years, he predicts, creating an economic crisis. Of course, Roberts has an agenda. He's now CEO of Anagran Inc., which makes a technology called flow-based routing that, Roberts claims, will solve all of the world's routing problems in one go."
I don't know, this is mildly offtopic (aka, not very operational) but the article made me giggle a few times. a) It resembles too much of Bob Metcalfe predicting the death of the Internet. We all remember how that went (wasn't there NANOG tshirt with Bob eating his hat?) b) In the words of Randy Bush, "We tried this 10 years ago, and it didn't work then". Everyone was doing flow-based routing back in '90-95 (cat6k sup1, gsr e0, first riverstoned devices, foundry ironcore, etc). Then, everyone figured out that it does not scale (tm Vijay Gill) and went to tcam-based architectures (for hardware platforms) or cef-like based architectures for software platforms. In either case, performance doesn't depend on flows/second, but only packets/second. Huge problem with flow-based routing is susceptibility to ddos (or abnormal traffic patterns). It doesn't matter that your device can route 1mpps of "normal" traffic if it croaks under 10kpps of ddos (or codered/nimda/etc). -alex [not mlc anything] [mlc]
A friend of mine who is a Jehova's Witness read something about the Internet and the end of the world in Watchtower recently. Could it be the same thing do you think? Perhaps they got it right this time? -- Leigh Porter Andrew Odlyzko wrote:
Isn't this same Dr. Larry Roberts who 5 years ago was claiming, "based on data from the 19 largest ISPs," or something like that, that Internet traffic was growing 4x each year, and so the world should rush to order his latest toys (from Caspian Networks, at that time)?
http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/roberts.caspian.txt
All the evidence points to the growth rate at that time being around 2x per year. And now Larry Roberts claims that current Internet traffic is around 2x per year, while there is quite a bit of evidence that the correct figure is closer to 1.5x per year,
Andrew Odlyzko
On Thu Oct 25, Alex Pilosov wrote:
On Thu, 25 Oct 2007, Paul Vixie wrote:
"Dr. Larry Roberts, co-founder of the ARPANET and inventor of packet switching, predicts the Internet is headed for a major crisis in an article published on the Internet Evolution web site today. Internet traffic is now growing much more quickly than the rate at which router cost is decreasing, Roberts says. At current growth levels, the cost of deploying Internet capacity to handle new services like social networking, gaming, video, VOIP, and digital entertainment will double every three years, he predicts, creating an economic crisis. Of course, Roberts has an agenda. He's now CEO of Anagran Inc., which makes a technology called flow-based routing that, Roberts claims, will solve all of the world's routing problems in one go."
I don't know, this is mildly offtopic (aka, not very operational) but the article made me giggle a few times.
a) It resembles too much of Bob Metcalfe predicting the death of the Internet. We all remember how that went (wasn't there NANOG tshirt with Bob eating his hat?)
b) In the words of Randy Bush, "We tried this 10 years ago, and it didn't work then". Everyone was doing flow-based routing back in '90-95 (cat6k sup1, gsr e0, first riverstoned devices, foundry ironcore, etc). Then, everyone figured out that it does not scale (tm Vijay Gill) and went to tcam-based architectures (for hardware platforms) or cef-like based architectures for software platforms. In either case, performance doesn't depend on flows/second, but only packets/second.
Huge problem with flow-based routing is susceptibility to ddos (or abnormal traffic patterns). It doesn't matter that your device can route 1mpps of "normal" traffic if it croaks under 10kpps of ddos (or codered/nimda/etc).
-alex [not mlc anything]
[mlc]
This sounds like the latest noise about global warming and how we are all going to disappear if we do not go "green" soon. Not to trivialize the issue but its getting to the point where it sounds like fear mongering. The crisis of the internet scenario mentioned here sounds the same Sounds like box pushing to me. Raymond Leigh Porter wrote:
A friend of mine who is a Jehova's Witness read something about the Internet and the end of the world in Watchtower recently. Could it be the same thing do you think?
Perhaps they got it right this time?
-- Leigh Porter
Andrew Odlyzko wrote:
Isn't this same Dr. Larry Roberts who 5 years ago was claiming, "based on data from the 19 largest ISPs," or something like that, that Internet traffic was growing 4x each year, and so the world should rush to order his latest toys (from Caspian Networks, at that time)?
http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/roberts.caspian.txt
All the evidence points to the growth rate at that time being around 2x per year. And now Larry Roberts claims that current Internet traffic is around 2x per year, while there is quite a bit of evidence that the correct figure is closer to 1.5x per year,
Andrew Odlyzko
On Thu Oct 25, Alex Pilosov wrote:
On Thu, 25 Oct 2007, Paul Vixie wrote:
"Dr. Larry Roberts, co-founder of the ARPANET and inventor of packet switching, predicts the Internet is headed for a major crisis in an article published on the Internet Evolution web site today. Internet traffic is now growing much more quickly than the rate at which router cost is decreasing, Roberts says. At current growth levels, the cost of deploying Internet capacity to handle new services like social networking, gaming, video, VOIP, and digital entertainment will double every three years, he predicts, creating an economic crisis. Of course, Roberts has an agenda. He's now CEO of Anagran Inc., which makes a technology called flow-based routing that, Roberts claims, will solve all of the world's routing problems in one go."
I don't know, this is mildly offtopic (aka, not very operational) but the article made me giggle a few times.
a) It resembles too much of Bob Metcalfe predicting the death of the Internet. We all remember how that went (wasn't there NANOG tshirt with Bob eating his hat?)
b) In the words of Randy Bush, "We tried this 10 years ago, and it didn't work then". Everyone was doing flow-based routing back in '90-95 (cat6k sup1, gsr e0, first riverstoned devices, foundry ironcore, etc). Then, everyone figured out that it does not scale (tm Vijay Gill) and went to tcam-based architectures (for hardware platforms) or cef-like based architectures for software platforms. In either case, performance doesn't depend on flows/second, but only packets/second.
Huge problem with flow-based routing is susceptibility to ddos (or abnormal traffic patterns). It doesn't matter that your device can route 1mpps of "normal" traffic if it croaks under 10kpps of ddos (or codered/nimda/etc).
-alex [not mlc anything]
[mlc]
participants (3)
-
Leigh Porter -
odlyzko＠dtc.umn.edu -
Raymond Macharia