EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario
EXERCISE Only The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise. 60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC) 10,117,016 population directly affected Estimated unsurvivable area (complete destruction) 32 square miles Internet Communications 30 Internet exchange points (1 unsurvivable, 8 critical damage, 20 severe damage, 1 serious damage) 708 Data centers (16 unsurvivable, 229 crtical damage, 446 severe damage, 16 serious: 6,300 Points of presence (1853 unsurvivable, 453 critical damage, 1447 severe damage, 456 serious damage) Indirect Internet impacts Mass communications Social media, misinformation and malinformation https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/
excellent! (but i was hoping this would be a swamp-draining-by-vaporization exercise.) i particularly liked this animation. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/Day5-MegaFire.mov On May 7, 2019, 11:21 AM -0700, Sean Donelan <sean@donelan.com>, wrote:
EXERCISE Only
The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
10,117,016 population directly affected
Estimated unsurvivable area (complete destruction) 32 square miles
Internet Communications
30 Internet exchange points (1 unsurvivable, 8 critical damage, 20 severe damage, 1 serious damage)
708 Data centers (16 unsurvivable, 229 crtical damage, 446 severe damage, 16 serious:
6,300 Points of presence (1853 unsurvivable, 453 critical damage, 1447 severe damage, 456 serious damage)
Indirect Internet impacts
Mass communications
Social media, misinformation and malinformation
On 5/7/19 3:39 PM, Mark Seiden wrote:
excellent! (but i was hoping this would be a swamp-draining-by-vaporization exercise.)
the matador...the matador... the matador! -- Bryan Fields 727-409-1194 - Voice http://bryanfields.net
Yes, they kept moving the impact site around all week (both Denver and West Africa were mentioned at times). Some people wiser than I guessed Central Park early on, but I thought that was too obvious. Good thing I didn't make a bet on it. Regards Marshall Eubanks On Tue, May 7, 2019 at 2:21 PM Sean Donelan <sean@donelan.com> wrote:
EXERCISE Only
The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
10,117,016 population directly affected
Estimated unsurvivable area (complete destruction) 32 square miles
Internet Communications
30 Internet exchange points (1 unsurvivable, 8 critical damage, 20 severe damage, 1 serious damage)
708 Data centers (16 unsurvivable, 229 crtical damage, 446 severe damage, 16 serious:
6,300 Points of presence (1853 unsurvivable, 453 critical damage, 1447 severe damage, 456 serious damage)
Indirect Internet impacts
Mass communications
Social media, misinformation and malinformation
Marshall Eubanks wrote on 07/05/2019 21:16:
Yes, they kept moving the impact site around all week (both Denver and West Africa were mentioned at times). Some people wiser than I guessed Central Park early on, but I thought that was too obvious. Good thing I didn't make a bet on it.
pfft, asteroid impacts and alien mothership crashes are bound to happen in Central Park. Everyone knows that! Nick
manifestly untrue https://movie-tourist.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-day-earth-stood-still-1951.ht... On May 7, 2019, 1:33 PM -0700, Nick Hilliard <nick@foobar.org>, wrote:
Marshall Eubanks wrote on 07/05/2019 21:16:
Yes, they kept moving the impact site around all week (both Denver and West Africa were mentioned at times). Some people wiser than I guessed Central Park early on, but I thought that was too obvious. Good thing I didn't make a bet on it.
pfft, asteroid impacts and alien mothership crashes are bound to happen in Central Park. Everyone knows that!
Nick
On Tue, 7 May 2019, Nick Hilliard wrote:
pfft, asteroid impacts and alien mothership crashes are bound to happen in Central Park. Everyone knows that!
The next Planetary Defence Conference in 2021 will be hosted in Europe. That means a major city on the European continent will likely be destroyed in the next asteroid exercise :-) 2015 exercise - fictional impact Dhaka, Bangladesh 2017 exercise - no fictional impact Tokyo, Japan (asteroid deflected) 2019 exercise - fictional impact New York City, NY Which iconic places in Europe to plot the 2021 PDC asteroid path? Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.
Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.
For any hit, a lot depends on impactor size. With an impactor of the size that took out the non-avian dinosaurs...the site of impact probably won't matter to us if humanity is unable to deflect it. See the RadioLab Dinopocalypse Redux from a few days ago for more on the model. https://www.wbez.org/shows/radiolab/dinopocalypse-redux/a36ca1fd-9525-40bc-8...
On Tue, 7 May 2019, Haudy Kazemi wrote:
For any hit, a lot depends on impactor size. With an impactor of the size that took out the non-avian dinosaurs...the site of impact probably won't matter to us if humanity is unable to deflect it.
I understand the intent. Earth is still a single point of failure. For disaster exercise planning purposes, extinction level events don't make for very interesting game-play. The disaster game-play is over by Monday afternoon, and the rest of the exercise week is a bust. The white team is forced to roll-back time and raise civilization from the ashes to continue with rest of the week. That's why extinction level events are generally used only in disaster planning study papers, not exercises. Many exercise designers could use help coming up with useful Internet disaster sub-plots. Bad enough to inject stress into the exercise, but not extinction. All ISP tech support agents are infected, and become brain eating zombies.
On Wed, May 08, 2019 at 10:11:10AM -0400, Sean Donelan wrote:
Many exercise designers could use help coming up with useful Internet disaster sub-plots. Bad enough to inject stress into the exercise, but not extinction.
All ISP tech support agents are infected, and become brain eating zombies.
We call that "Tuesday". ---rsk p.s. On a more serious note, disaster exercises that include partial failures of emergency response infrastructure are often quite challenging. As I write this, the IT infrastructure of Baltimore is down due to a ransomware attack. As a consequence, while 911 is functional, fire department computers are down. If a significant event requiring BCFD happened tonight, it would be challenging for them to coordinate a large-scale response.
On 08/05/2019 02:44, Sean Donelan wrote:
Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.
An ocean impact needn't be boring. It would potentially create megatsunamis over a possibly wide area on multiple coasts. Even cities away from coasts but on rivers could be affected. A large ocean impactor could even damage undersea cables. -- Mark Rousell
To sum it all up... if and when ... I doubt we will worry about the internet. Food, Water, shelter and ammunition’s || that’s all else if anyone could possibly make it through. #ProblemSolved -- J. Hellenthal The fact that there's a highway to Hell but only a stairway to Heaven says a lot about anticipated traffic volume.
On May 8, 2019, at 18:03, Mark Rousell <markr@signal100.com> wrote:
On 08/05/2019 02:44, Sean Donelan wrote: Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.
An ocean impact needn't be boring. It would potentially create megatsunamis over a possibly wide area on multiple coasts. Even cities away from coasts but on rivers could be affected.
A large ocean impactor could even damage undersea cables.
-- Mark Rousell
On Tue, May 7, 2019 at 11:20 AM Sean Donelan <sean@donelan.com> wrote:
The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
So what happened? Where's the post-game? You guys had 8 years to stop the thing. Why is there a big hole in Manhattan? And with 10 days warning at the very end, why did any critical Internet operations remain active in NYC? Regards, Bill -- William Herrin ................ herrin@dirtside.com bill@herrin.us Dirtside Systems ......... Web: <http://www.dirtside.com/>
Did anyone trying calling Bruce Willis? On Wed, May 8, 2019 at 10:41 AM William Herrin <bill@herrin.us> wrote:
On Tue, May 7, 2019 at 11:20 AM Sean Donelan <sean@donelan.com> wrote:
The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
So what happened? Where's the post-game? You guys had 8 years to stop the thing. Why is there a big hole in Manhattan? And with 10 days warning at the very end, why did any critical Internet operations remain active in NYC?
Regards, Bill
-- William Herrin ................ herrin@dirtside.com bill@herrin.us Dirtside Systems ......... Web: <http://www.dirtside.com/>
participants (11)
-
Bryan Fields -
Haudy Kazemi -
J. Hellenthal -
james jones -
Mark Rousell -
Mark Seiden -
Marshall Eubanks -
Nick Hilliard -
Rich Kulawiec -
Sean Donelan -
William Herrin