Hi, Can someone from Telus ping me off-list re:IPv6 deployment. Jack

-----Original Message----- From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Jacques Latour Sent: January-04-16 11:45 AM To: Jared Mauch; Ca By; nanog@nanog.org Subject: RE: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

Great news and even more impressive is that Canada is the fastest adopter with ~8% IPv6 penetration, growing from almost 0.5% to 8% in 3 months!!!. See http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/CA

Telus is making a big difference in Canada as the IPv6 adoption leader @ ~45% IPv6 adoption. http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/AS852?c=CA&g=&w=1&x=1

Hint, hint, subliminal message here for all Canadian ISPs, IPv6 works ;-)

So let's shutdown IPv4 on April 4, 2024

Bonne Année!

...

-----Original Message----- From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Jared Mauch Sent: January-04-16 11:28 AM To: Ca By Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

...

...

...

I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)

Tomas

Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:

Jan 2016: 10% Jan 2017: 20% Jan 2018: 33% Jan 2019: 50% Jan 2020: 67% Jan 2021: 80% Jan 2022: 90%

with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4 switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.

Neil Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number.

The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices.

Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends the past onto the future. It does not account for purposeful engineering design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates.

For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as they have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates, you may see substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly meaningful moving that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks.

This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol for all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet.

...

On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <cb.list6@gmail.com> wrote:

...

On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <neil@tonal.clara.co.uk> wrote:

...

On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:

Hi,

according to Google's statistics (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC

I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to my phone, or at least v4v6 APN setting.

I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon".

This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs.