Pete Kruckenberg <pete@kruckenberg.com> wrote:

I think it is naive to assume that just because there is an over-supply of bandwidth today that it will be that way forever.

Some assume, some do something to make sure it's going to be like that :)

Who knows when this will happen. With every dial-up customer moving to DSL, cable and wireless, and stuff like voice and video moving to IP-based networks, seems like it'll happen sooner rather than later.

I know at least one company which is going to be in field trials this year with the technology which can actually handle traffic in case if every household in US gets a T-1.

At 1000% annual growth rates (according to Lord Sidgemore) in bandwidth usage,

1000%/yr sounds like BS. 200-400% is more like it. Reality check - see how backbones grow, not what marketing people say.

it'll be only a matter of a few years, even with yet-to-be-deployed and yet-to-be-developed DWDM enhancements.

Never underestimate bandwidth of 1 sq ft. bundle of fibers. Even if no advances are made in WDM or femtosecond optical valve technology the petabit-per-second networks can still be built for cost comparable to the cost of POTS. --vadim PS Trend-wise speaking, backbones are catching up with host performance. Before long, hosts will become the bottleneck, not the network. After that, network growth will follow the same trend line as hosts: i.e. Moore's law performance increases with pretty much fixed cost.