Perhaps we need NANOG-OldFarts mailing list?
I think this is putting the cart before the horse.
We were getting upgraded bandwidth capabilities, fiber put in the ground, etc from traditional Telcos prior to the rise of the Internet; they were finding cheaper ways to run phone service around.
This is totally incorrect. Ask anyone who had been in this business from the beginning of nineties, not late nineties.
How about people who were in the business or doing engineering on WANs in the late 80s?
Telcos, while upgrading their systems, happily pointed at the PUC filings and sold you DS1 that went two blocks for $700 per month, that being inside a city.
The local loop situation was, and in many cases remains, a major problem point; at one point, the ISP I was with was paying more for the last mile from C&W facilities in each city to our POPs than for the long haul T-1 lines forming the nationwide backbone. We dropped our total telco costs by about 10% by locating our main NOC in a building housing C&W and AT&T Longlines facilities and calling in a contractor with a concrete drill to run conduit up through our ceiling into the AT&T and C&W machine rooms... All of that said, the long distance lines were already negotiable, and getting very rapidly more so, in 1991 and 1992.
The rise of the Internet as a telecom bandwidth demand driver attracted the attention of investment bankers and capital, which then became somewhat of a set of complex feedback loops (capital going into all sorts of internet industries, infrastructure, etc, partly because it appeared to be good business and partly because of hype). The result was that speculation and hype drove overcapacity.
This again is incorrect. The rise of content attracted investment bankers.
Oh? And here I am wondering why the fiber plant growth started its serious upswing in the late 80s, prior to the invention of HTTP/HTML.
Before anyone had invested serious money in any of the internet infrastructure companies, people were building out 10 megabit, T3 backbones and were talking to telco gear providers about what it would take to do 155 megabit and 622 megabit backbones and so on and so on.
This is again incorrect. The people that you are talking about were UUNET and MCI, and we are talking 1994.
That's years too late. UUNet had some 10 megabit WAN links while I was still in college, using those crazy 10meg-ethernet-into-SONNET custom hardware boxes if I remember right. T3 lines were technically available and priced by 1990; nobody had the money or customer demand to justify getting them. They were being used by telcos to upgrade their POTS services, but people were already asking what we could do with them with pure stream IP data, and looking at the OC-3 and OC-12 protocols as they developed, though that was mostly driven by LAN rather than WAN.
It was clear to those of us in the late 80s and early 90s that if demand kept pulling, we needed to keep creating bandwidth.
There had not been demand in 80. Neither had there been demand in the beginning of 1990s.
Strange. When I started using the Internet, *the* T-1 backbone wasn't all done yet. I got a bad name a couple of times by pulling X11 releases down from MIT at times of day that it caused noticable delay in the rest of the country's coast-to-coast IP traffic. By the time I graduated college, there were three backbones, and T-1 was no longer the hottest WAN technology in use. The demand growth curve goes back a long, long ways, Alex.
But in no way can you claim that it took a terabuck in capital push to make it happen. Demand pull was fully operational and working just fine before ISPs started being snapped up by phone companies and visa versa, and the huge money came into play.
Yes I can. It did take terrabucks to get this industry rolling.
You are mistaking terrabucks invested in capacity push as opposed to responding to demand pull. Demand pull is fine; when there's demand, if the cost model works out, you invest to support it. Capacity push is speculation on a growth curve. We didn't need that, though everyone who likes dark fiber now is acting like a kid in a candy shop since a terabuck or so was wasted on overprovisioning it...
Hype might have been lower and growth somewhat slower, but I can easily see the set of people who were building out backbones with T-1s and the early fiber links having grown them up to networks capable of today's traffic.
Are you talking about Net99 here?
I can't even remember what year Net99 kicked off... Must have been what, 1994? I was chatting with Joe Stroup by cellphone from my inlaws place during their pre-launch nationwide tour, and the inlaws moved in there in 1994. Yes... Cook report 3.07 summary, Sept/Oct 94, seems to confirm that timing. Announced late 94, rolled out early 95. [Side note: Gordon, for historical purposes, would it be unreasonable if we asked you to make the full reports freely available if they're older than say 5 years? 3 years? Or are you still making money off the archaic gathering dust ones ... 8-) ] 1995 is not going back nearly far enough. I'm talking about pre-CIX (remember that?). Pre-NAPs. Pre-any-telcos-routing-IP. Man, 1992-4 were busy years, though. -george william herbert gherbert@retro.com
I don't post here much but since i have been asked a direct question.... i will give an answer and a factoid or two and ask a question or two of my own
Perhaps we need NANOG-OldFarts mailing list?
yes -says one old fart how about a list with a charter of discussing industry changes that might find some islands of stability in the on going industry collapse? one that examines some of the fundamental ways in which the economics of the industry is changing?
T3 lines were technically available and priced by 1990; nobody had the money or customer demand to justify getting them. They were being used by telcos to upgrade their POTS services,
for the internet the T-3 backbone upgrade was the highly relevant part. ANS was formed as a public private partnership to give IBM an opportunity for a test bed (via the NSFNet backbone) to develop hardware that could route IP packets at 45 megs. The upgrade was announced in early 1991 but it was a LONG time (late 92 early 93 before ANS was moving packets at that speed. (See brock meeks expose of merits claims on the T3 NsfNet backbone that ran in the july 7 1992 issue of communications daily.)
Are you talking about Net99 here?
I can't even remember what year Net99 kicked off... Must have been what, 1994? I was chatting with Joe Stroup by cellphone from my inlaws place during their pre-launch nationwide tour, and the inlaws moved in there in 1994.
Historical footnote - I was the person who introduced joe Stroup to karl Denninger.... I think in the summer of 1993.... maybe it was spring 94.
Yes... Cook report 3.07 summary, Sept/Oct 94, seems to confirm that timing.
yes stroup and denninger announced their plans at or around the time of the CIX meeting in september
Announced late 94, rolled out early 95. [Side note: Gordon, for historical purposes, would it be unreasonable if we asked you to make the full reports freely available if they're older than say 5 years? 3 years? Or are you still making money off the archaic gathering dust ones ... 8-) ]
Since YOU ASKED. When Creative Commons goes live in the fall I believe that pretty much everything you have just asked about will be available there under a public domain but no commercial use license.
1995 is not going back nearly far enough.
I'm talking about pre-CIX (remember that?).
CIX was announced at my Feb 14 1991 OTA workshop.... by susan estrada and bill schraeder...rick adams was supposed to be there but was sick..... al weis was there...cix was a move against ANS
Pre-NAPs. Pre-any-telcos-routing-IP.
Man, 1992-4 were busy years, though.
-george william herbert gherbert@retro.com
Finally I'd like to ask a question in return. I am trying to look at what will grow up on the ashes of the current industry collapse. We are beginning to see gigabit ethernet over municipally owned dark fiber networks. Fiber to the home is beginning to appear in a few isolated areas. World Wide Packets has a business model predicated on that. As more build outs continue in places like quebec, and grant county washington and provo utah, ashland oregon, stockholm and other places around the globe, you have a potential new business opportunity for folk to use the Internet for the delivery of bandwidth intensive content and services to these municipally owned networks. As bandwidth prices plunge this model LOOKs attractive until it runs into the reality of the cost of tier one transit. That cost, i suspect, renders it of doubtful viability. With regard to this issue however Paul Vixie's comments on peering have been especially interesting. Are there folk with adequate routes and connectivity that would undertake to form a network that might be independent of the current internet core back bone of what (112,000 routes?) on top of which sit the half dozen or so Tier one players that peer primarily with each other and demand transit $$$ from everyone else? Web and email stay on the legacy backbone...new services migrate to a backbone with a cost structure unencumbered by the tier one oligopolists? Now i realize there may be plenty of issues that render this suggestion absurd. But i sense from the recent peering discussion here and from other conversations i have had that there is a fair amount of discontent with the current tier one peering oligopoly and that some folk are exploring ideas for evolution given current market conditions. Since this does not mesh well with the operational charter of NANOG, i think we likely need to take any discussion elsewhere. Anyone who has ideas, means and interests to discuss these issues please mail me off list. Yes this does fit in with other things that I am researching and writing about. see http://cookreport.com/11.05-6.shtml There is plenty to lament about what has happened to all of us. However, I think that it is useful to look ahead at how we may eventually climb out this morass. IP packets and phones will not go away. Most of the companies currently operating in this space will. PS. Anyone interested in trekking in Nepal in October please let me know off list. eg http://cookreport.com/everest.shtml -- ======================================================== The COOK Report on Internet, 431 Greenway Ave, Ewing, NJ 08618 USA (609) 882-2572 (phone & fax) cook@cookreport.com Subscription info & prices at http://cookreport.com/subscriptions.shtml Summary of content for 10 years at http://cookreport.com/past_issues.shtml Here Comes Asset Based Telecom A 120 page - Aug Sept issue available at http://cookreport.com/11.05-6.shtml ========================================================
participants (2)
-
George William Herbert
-
Gordon Cook