On May 2, 2008, at 5:40 PM, jamie wrote:

You first, mister chicken-with-his-head-cut-off.

What's your plan?

Mike owns Hurricane Electric. HE.net has the most v6 routes, peering, and pretty much any other metric you can dream up. His .sig says "Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit". What do you think his plan is? More important question: Perhaps you should spend 15 seconds researching things before you send obviously ignorant comments to 10K of your not-so-close friends? -- TTFN, patrick

On Fri, May 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM, Mike Leber <mleber@he.net> wrote:

...

Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected until IPv4 exhaustion:

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

Do you have an IPv6 plan?

How long do you think it will be until Sarbanes Oxley and SAS 70 auditors start requiring disclosure of IPv4 exhaustion as a business continuity risk, as well as the presence or lack thereof of an IPv6 plan?

When do you plan on telling your customers? (afterwards?)

Ahhh, you don't have any customers that have to plan to buy equipment 2 years in advance. Ok, I understand.

Mike. ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do that?

pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)

ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...

+----------------- H U R R I C A N E - E L E C T R I C -----------------+ | Mike Leber Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit 510 580 4100 | | Hurricane Electric Web Hosting Colocation AS6939 | | mleber@he.net http://he.net | + -----------------------------------------------------------------------+

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Has anyone ever figured out how to make multi-homing of customers who only have a /64 assigned to them work?

Same way you make multi-homing of customers who only have a IPv4 /32 assigned to them work, i.e., not well.

Maybe the world really will end, and it's all due to IPv6!

Internet doomed, MPEG stalled at 11:00... :-) Regards, -drc

Mike and HE are all over that ipv6 On 5/2/08, jamie <j@arpa.com> wrote:

You first, mister chicken-with-his-head-cut-off.

What's your plan?

On Fri, May 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM, Mike Leber <mleber@he.net> wrote:

...

Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected until IPv4 exhaustion:

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

Do you have an IPv6 plan?

How long do you think it will be until Sarbanes Oxley and SAS 70 auditors start requiring disclosure of IPv4 exhaustion as a business continuity risk, as well as the presence or lack thereof of an IPv6 plan?

When do you plan on telling your customers? (afterwards?)

Ahhh, you don't have any customers that have to plan to buy equipment 2 years in advance. Ok, I understand.

Mike. ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do that?

pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)

ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...

+----------------- H U R R I C A N E - E L E C T R I C -----------------+ | Mike Leber Wholesale IPv4 and IPv6 Transit 510 580 4100 | | Hurricane Electric Web Hosting Colocation AS6939 | | mleber@he.net http://he.net | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+

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On May 2, 2008, at 6:01 PM, Marc Manthey wrote:

...

P.S. 10K of your not-so-close friends?

does this mean this list has 10.000 subscribers ?

I've heard all kinds of numbers, you can probably dig something out of the archives. But my understanding is there are far greater than 10K mailboxes which receive NANOG, especially if you include exploders. Could someone from the mail admin team confirm? -- TTFN, patrick

Tim Yocum wrote:

Patrick is correct - the subscriber count is just north of 10k; likely far greater readership considering web archives, remailers, etc.

However... subscribership != readership. There are always many subscribers who don't actively read every post, or every day. (I'm just now catching up on 10 days of unread posts - it would be easy to declare email bankruptcy and just mark it all read...) All you have to do is post an important announcement (such as "the mailing list is moving to a new server") and then notice how few read it to prove the truth of this fact. :-) Also, note how few read the list's welcome message, read the FAQ, etc. jc

ppps. Or not if you don't have any kind of IPv6 plan. Sorry, sorry...

Does it take most network operators more than 1000 days to make an IPv6 plan and start implementing it? I suppose there is always some network running obsolete gear out somewhere, but their upstream guy may provide them something to avoid the pain (like reclaimed v4 space) or a gateway or other service. I guess another way to say it is... if you can afford for the planning and implementation to have so many layers of sign-off and buy-in it takes years, you can afford the costs, in everything else, to implement it. Not to mention, piggyback off of all the published BCPs, improved tools and software, and other things that 2 more years will provide. Deepak Jain AiNET

back office software ip and dns management software provisioning tools cpe measurement and monitoring and billing and, of course, backbone and aggregation equipment that can actually handle real ipv6 traffic flows with acls and chocolate syrup. randy

Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:

On Sat, 3 May 2008, Randy Bush wrote:

...

back office software ip and dns management software provisioning tools cpe measurement and monitoring and billing

and, of course, backbone and aggregation equipment that can actually handle real ipv6 traffic flows with acls and chocolate syrup.

Not to mention, you want to be able to do the regular antispoofing etc and your security devices (which might be based on L2 switches doing DHCP snooping) doesn't do IPv6, so you need to replace them (or live with lower security) and this needs serious budget.

Or you'll have to revert to what you did before dhcp filtering switches. Which was watch for replies from rogues and then update your mac filters accordingly or drop the host onto a quarantine vlan. should work quite well for rogue RAs and rogue dhcpv6 servers. Obviously it's reactive rather than proactive but it can be quite effective if automated.

Mike Leber wrote:

Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected until IPv4 exhaustion:

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

....

ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do that?

pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)

I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea! IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or .... So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years. regards, Geoff

On 4/05/2008, at 3:22 PM, William Warren wrote:

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really nice and make that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/ LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), then I don't see how that's relevant - whether they've got machines on those addresses or not, from an outsider's point of view the address space is unavailable for them to use. ..or, maybe your thought is that at some point these guys will start using addresses in those /8s, and stop requesting new allocations from their RIR/LIR, which will in turn slow down IPv4 allocations? I'm not sure, but licking my finger and sticking it out the window suggests that allocations to those with little-utilised /8s is a fairly small percentage. -- Nathan Ward

I'm not sure that I would tar everyone who does NXDOMAIN remapping with the same brush as SPAM and DDOS. Handled the way OpenDNS does, on an opt-in basis, it's a "good thing" IMO. I would also say that disaggregating and remarketing dark address space, assuming it's handled above board and in a way that doesn't break the 'net, could be a "very good thing". The artifact of MIT and others having /8s while the entire Indian subcontinent scrapes for /29s, can hardly be considered optimal or right. It's time for the supposedly altruistic good guys to do the right thing, and give back the resources they are not using, that are sorely needed. How about they resell it and use the money to make getting an education affordable? The routing prefix problem, OTOH, is an artificial shortage caused by (mostly one) commercial entities maximizing their bottom line by producing products that were obviously underpowered at the time they were designed, so as to minimize component costs, and ensure users upgraded due to planned obsolescence. Can you give me a good technical reason, in this day of 128 bit network processors that can handle 10GigE, why remapping the entire IPv4 address space into /27s and propagating all the prefixes is a real engineering problem? Especially if those end-points are relatively stable as to connectivity, the allocations are non-portable, and you aggregate. How is fork-lifting the existing garbage for better IPv4 routers any worse than migrating to IPv6? At least with an IPv4 infrastructure overhaul, it's relatively transparent to the end user. It's not either/or anyway. Ideally you would have an IPv6 capable router that could do IPv4 without being babied as to prefix table size or update rate. IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some. That having been said, I think going to IPv6 has a lot of other benefits that make it worthwhile. YMMV, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda

-----Original Message----- From: Paul Vixie [mailto:vixie@isc.org] Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:39 AM To: nanog@merit.edu Subject: Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4

nanog@daork.net (Nathan Ward) writes:

...

...

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really nice and make that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/ LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), ...

first, a parable:

in datacenters, it used to be that the scarce resource was rack space, but then it was connectivity, and now it's power/heat/cooling. there are fallow fields of empty racks too far from fiber routes or power grids to be filled, all because the scarcity selector has moved over time. some folks who were previously close to fiber routes and/or power grids found that they could do greenfield construction and that the customers would naturally move in, since too much older datacenter capacity was unusable by modern standards.

then, a recounting:

michael dillon asked a while back what could happen if MIT (holding 18/8) were to go into the ISP business, offering dialup and/or tunnel/VPN access, and bundling a /24 with each connection, and allowing each customer to multihome if they so chose. nobody could think of an RIR rule, or an ISP rule, or indeed anything else that could prevent this from occurring. now, i don't think that MIT would do this, since it would be a distraction for them, and they probably don't need the money, and they're good guys, anyway.

now, a prediction:

but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity now known as spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as NXDOMAIN remapping, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that the next great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is explosive deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we can expect business plans whereby well suited shysters march into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to outsource this monetization. "you get half the money but none of the distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or IPv6, we'll do the rest." nothing in recorded human history argues against this occurring. -- Paul Vixie

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Tomas L. Byrnes wrote:

IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some.

There are approximately 3.4 billion or a little less usable ip addresses. there are 3.3 billion mobile phone users buying approximately 400,000 ip capable devices a day. That's a single industy, notwithstanding how the are presently employed what do you think those deployments are going to look like in 5 years? in 10? How many ip addresses do you need to nat 100 million customers? how much state do you have to carry to do port demux for their traffic? I guess making it all scale is someone else's problem...

That having been said, I think going to IPv6 has a lot of other benefits that make it worthwhile.

YMMV, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda

...

-----Original Message----- From: Paul Vixie [mailto:vixie@isc.org] Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:39 AM To: nanog@merit.edu Subject: Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4

nanog@daork.net (Nathan Ward) writes:

...

...

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space. Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really nice and make that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/ LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), ... first, a parable:

in datacenters, it used to be that the scarce resource was rack space, but then it was connectivity, and now it's power/heat/cooling. there are fallow fields of empty racks too far from fiber routes or power grids to be filled, all because the scarcity selector has moved over time. some folks who were previously close to fiber routes and/or power grids found that they could do greenfield construction and that the customers would naturally move in, since too much older datacenter capacity was unusable by modern standards.

then, a recounting:

michael dillon asked a while back what could happen if MIT (holding 18/8) were to go into the ISP business, offering dialup and/or tunnel/VPN access, and bundling a /24 with each connection, and allowing each customer to multihome if they so chose. nobody could think of an RIR rule, or an ISP rule, or indeed anything else that could prevent this from occurring. now, i don't think that MIT would do this, since it would be a distraction for them, and they probably don't need the money, and they're good guys, anyway.

now, a prediction:

but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity now known as spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as NXDOMAIN remapping, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that the next great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is explosive deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we can expect business plans whereby well suited shysters march into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to outsource this monetization. "you get half the money but none of the distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or IPv6, we'll do the rest." nothing in recorded human history argues against this occurring. -- Paul Vixie

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but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity now known as spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as NXDOMAIN remapping, or the ones who saw the opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that the next great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is explosive deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we can expect business plans whereby well suited shysters march into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to outsource this monetization. "you get half the money but none of the distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or IPv6, we'll do the rest." nothing in recorded human history argues against this occurring.

paul, this is not the spanish inquisition or the great crusades. nothing in human history argues against a lot of fantasies and black helicopters. and yes, some of them actually come true, c.f. iraq. but i have a business to run, not a religious crusade. there is no news at eleven, just more work to do. some time back what we now call legacy space was given out under policies which seemed like a good idea at the time. [ interestingly, these policies were similar to the policies being used or considered for ipv6 allocations today, what we later think of as large chunks that may or may not be really well utilized. have you seen the proposal in ripe to give everyone with v4 space a big chunk of v6 space whether they want it or not? ] the people who gave those allocations and the people (or organizations) who received them were not evil, stupid, or greedy. they were just early adopters, incurring the risks and occasional benefits. maybe it benefits arin's desperate search for a post-ipv4-free-pool era business model to cast these allocation holders as evil (see the video of arin's lawyer at nanog and some silly messages on the arin ppml list), with the fantasy that there is enough legacy space that arin can survive with its old business model for an extra year or two. i think of this as analogous to the record companies sending the lawyers out instead of joining the 21st century and getting on the front of the wave. i hope that the result in arin's case is not analogously tragic. arin's legacy registration agreement is quite lopsided, as has been pointed out multiple times. the holder grants and gives up rights and gains little they do not already have. but i am sure there will be some who will sign it. heck, some people click on phishing links. i suggest we focus on how to roll out v6 or give up and get massive natting to work well (yuchhh!) and not waste our time rearranging the deck chairs [0] or characterizing those with chairs as evil. randy --- [0] my wife used to admonish folk to think about those fools on the titanic who declined dessert.

Let's think smaller. /16 shall we say? Like the /16 here. Originally the SRI / ARPANET SF Bay Packet Radio network that started back in 1977. Now controlled by a shell company belonging to a shell company belonging to a "high volume email deployer" :) http://blog.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2008/04/a_case_of_network_identit... srs On Sun, May 4, 2008 at 9:07 AM, Joel Jaeggli <joelja@bogus.com> wrote:

William Warren wrote:

...

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

which one's would those be?

legacy class A address space just isn't that big...

On May 3, 2008, at 8:37 PM, Joel Jaeggli wrote:

William Warren wrote:

...

That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space. which one's would those be?

While I wouldn't call it hoarding, can any single (non-ISP) organization actually justify a /8? How many students does MIT have again?

legacy class A address space just isn't that big...

There is more legacy space (IANA_Registry + VARIOUS, using Geoff's labels) than all space allocated by the RIRs combined. Regards, -drc

On 2 mei 2008, at 20:51, Mike Leber wrote:

Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected until IPv4 exhaustion:

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

Unfortunately that won't load for me over IPv6, path MTU black hole...

ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do that?

Since the only people who can get really large blocks of IP addresses are the people who already have really large blocks of IP addresses, the eventual distribution of large blocks won't differ much depending on whether there will be a rush or not. Obviously the 99% of requests that use up only 17% of the space each year are of no importance in the grand scheme of things. I was about to write that 1000 days is too optimistic/pessimistic, but (after trying to compensate for ARIN's strange book keeping practices) it looks like in 2006, 163 million addresses were given out, 196 in 2007. If the next few years also see an increase of 20% in yearly address use, then 1000 days sounds about right. That means we'd have to use up 235 million addresses this year, while so far we're at 73 million, which puts us on track for 219 million. So maybe it will be 1050 days (which leaves us exactly a million addresses per day). BTW, about the India thing: they should take their cue from China, which only had a few million addresses at the turn of the century but is now in the number two spot at ~ 150 million addresses. (Comparison: the US holds 1.4 billion, India 15 million, just behind Sweden which has 17 million.) China is now the biggest user of new address space. http://www.bgpexpert.com/addressespercountry.php http://www.bgpexpert.com/ianaglobalpool.php http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace2007.php (Make it "www.ipv4.bgpexpert..." if you have trouble reaching the site over v6.)