+wC/1qzWnl2AFz4ZjakpNyDTWpl4MjRjXVqrorI3SZ1m8z45ro8lpktWEvOZ1GwxZGlAaz0LjsF1ZHmI nVm/k3PcTTHM0RBi79Mgo=; Received: from [172.17.67.246] (unverified [12.104.158.98]) by mx1-b.inoc.net (build v7.5.2) with ESMTP id 127899339-1941382 for <nanog@nanog.org>; Fri, 13 Jul 2007 11:04:56 +0000 (UTC) Message-ID: <46975C58.4070602@inoc.net> Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:04:56 -0400 From: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor@inoc.net> Organization: INOC, LLC User-Agent: Thunderbird 2.0.0.4 (Windows/20070604) MIME-Version: 1.0 To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted References: <12997.1184264272@sa.vix.com> <20070712133910.B8475@sprockets.gibbar d.org> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707122342300.29164@uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696AB85.1030407@in oc.net> <Pine.LNX.4.64.0707130039220.29164@uplift.swm.pp.se> <4696B668.2080807@i noc.net> <4696C8DA.3070101@bogus.com> <4696D017.7010100@inoc.net> <4696D4A2.2010 001@psg.com> <4696EF15.6020704@utc.edu> In-Reply-To: <4696EF15.6020704@utc.edu> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: owner-nanog@merit.edu Precedence: bulk Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu X-Loop: nanog Jeff Kell wrote:

If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable.

* 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-) * 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days * 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k * 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k) * 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m)

Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets not forget that all of the above has been established on existing facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years. You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M, maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So... 30M Is Today +4/5 years 300M Is Today +8/10 years 3G Is Today +12/15 years 30G Is Today +16/20 years If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're running into homes may not be possible for quite some time... PS -- baud != bps -Robert