[Fwd: [IP] Japan facing bandwidth shortage due to take-up in broadband]
I wonder how much of this is bandwidth that could be saved by clamping down on worm traffic / assorted junk from zombies and open proxies etc, before investing in new bandwidth on a national scale - and in upgrading routers and other kit for that purpose. And I do believe that a lot of the bandwidth for broadband (true broadband that is, not what the average US ISP would call "dsl" or "cable") there is online gaming traffic... bandwidth requirements for that would be increasing steadily if I don't miss my guess. -------- Original Message -------- Subject: [IP] Japan facing bandwidth shortage due to take-up in broadband Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2004 19:07:04 -0400 From: David Farber <dave@farber.net> Reply-To: dave@farber.net To: Ip <ip@v2.listbox.com> Begin forwarded message: [Thanks to Adam Peake for this pointer. Some excerpts - BSA] http://neasia.nikkeibp.com/wcs/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/fw/292043 Prediction of Communications Crisis Prompts Japan's Telecom Ministry to Take Action February 23, 2004 (TOKYO) -- Japan's Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT) is taking the initiative to establish a study group in order to circumvent a potential communications crisis that could occur in Japan due to a sharp increase in data communications traffic. Predicting that the spread of broadband communications may cause capacity shortages in existing communications infrastructures as soon as five years from now, and strong possibilities of triggering interruptions, the MPHPT plans to launch countermeasures aimed at reinforcing the communications infrastructure. The study group expects to release a midterm report this summer. According to the report, data communications traffic across the country has been expanded nearly 1,000 times as large as that observed in the last 10 years. If it continues to increase at this pace, the domestic data communications traffic should reach as much as 1,024 times the current volume in the next 10 years. With the current facilities as they are, a simple calculation shows that actual communications traffic will exceed the backbone's maximum capacity as soon as five years from now. That is not the only problem. Capacity limits of devices -- routers and switches that constitute communications networks -- are coming within sight. In order to handle huge communications traffic without any delay, large-capacity routers of more than 10Tbps are required. To deal with growing data communications traffic, it is imperative to reinvest in the communications infrastructure, such as an expansion of relay-network capacities by adding new optical fibers and communications equipment. ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as suresh@hserus.net To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/
you may want to look at the relationship between the japanese government and the industry, and the various societal players in between, before taking this at north american face value. but 100meg ether to the home and office (in the urban centers) and more innovative use of media have fostered much faster increases of bandwidth needs in japan and korea than in north america. and shuresh, when you have some good automated technology for "clamping down on worm traffic / assorted junk from zombies and open proxies etc," i suspect many folk in those countries and the rest of the world will deploy it or something like it. in the meantwixt, our sympathies that your monopolistic telco environment has not fostered enough bandwidth deployment that your country could become a worm ... problem :-). randy
Randy Bush wrote:
and shuresh, when you have some good automated technology for "clamping down on worm traffic / assorted junk from zombies and open proxies etc," i suspect many folk in those countries
Heh, if there was one such, I'd deploy it .. at least to sleep peacefully at night if not to retire rich on the proceeds :)
and the rest of the world will deploy it or something like it. in the meantwixt, our sympathies that your monopolistic telco environment has not fostered enough bandwidth deployment that your country could become a worm ... problem :-).
The monopolistic telco was a few years back. Right now there are a bunch of outfits large enough to provide (sort of) DSL - 512k .. and quite a few fat pipes coming into India. [one of which, Flag Telecom, was recently bought by one of the Indian telcos - Reliance Infocomm] If there was no worm problem yet, I guess there will be now. srs
With the current facilities as they are, a simple calculation shows that actual communications traffic will exceed the backbone's maximum capacity as soon as five years from now.
Since when is this is a good indicator? If we ignore any of the growth in facility capacity in the last 5 years, wouldn't we all be in capacity -plus situations right now? I know we are moving more than our total capacity from 5 years ago.
In order to handle huge communications traffic without any delay, large-capacity routers of more than 10Tbps are required. To deal with growing data communications traffic, it is imperative to reinvest in the communications infrastructure, such as an expansion of relay-network capacities by adding new optical fibers and communications equipment.
Sounds like a great place to deploy an HFR-class router if you had to do it this year. In 5 years, a PC might be able to do it. Deepak Jain AiNET
With the current facilities as they are, a simple calculation shows that actual communications traffic will exceed the backbone's maximum capacity as soon as five years from now.
Since when is this is a good indicator? If we ignore any of the growth in facility capacity in the last 5 years, wouldn't we all be in capacity -plus situations right now? I know we are moving more than our total capacity from 5 years ago.
I suggest that folks re-read and heed the words of Sage Bush. This announcement is simply official marketing to support a few facts: a) the government is officially acknowledging the exponential growth of the Internet, something that all here understood long ago, b) the government is now supporting the development of a router in Japan and this is the rationale for them to provide governmental support for the 'lucrative' core router market. Tony
On Thu, 10 Jun 2004, Suresh Ramasubramanian wrote: [snip]
And I do believe that a lot of the bandwidth for broadband (true broadband that is, not what the average US ISP would call "dsl" or "cable") there is online gaming traffic... bandwidth requirements for that would be increasing steadily if I don't miss my guess.
This would depend on the netcode of the engines involved, but historically it's always been relatively low throughput per-client but high pps. P2P decimating transit links is more likely to be the offender imo. Regards, Jess. -- Jess Kitchen ^ burstfire.net[works] _25492$ | www.burstfire.net.uk
participants (5)
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Suresh Ramasubramanian -
Tony Li