On Mon, Apr 19, 2010 at 06:56:43AM +0200, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
On Mon, 19 Apr 2010, Franck Martin wrote:
Anybody has better projections? What's the plan?
My guess is that end user access will be more and more NAT444:ed (CGN) while at the same time end users will get more and more IPv6 access (of all types), and over a period of time more and more of the p2p traffic (VoIP, file transfers etc) will move to IPv6 because it'll stop working over IPv4. When enough users have IPv6 access the server-based content will be made reachable over v6 as well.
The transition will take at least 5 years, I guess in 2015 we'll be perhaps halfway there.
I suppose we will be here before 2015. We have at least one segment where IPv6 CPE is mandated by network access providers - that's cellular networks. So, adding "Verizon mandates IPv6 for LTE phones"[1] and "Verizon expects to commercially launch its LTE 4G network in up to 30 markets in 2010"[2] I can suggest that there will be significant increase of IPv6-enabled users in 2010-2011. May be this increase will be even significant enough to push content providers to dual-stack too... [1]: http://www.circleid.com/posts/20090609_verizon_mandates_ipv6_support_for_nex... [2]: http://www.wirelessweek.com/News-Verizon-LTE-Data-Calls-081709.aspx