bottom line is that in a few years everything will be virtualized and cosolodation will rule the land.
I've heard this over and over again, and it's just not happened. I'm still one of the few 100% facilities based dial ISPs left in Iowa, and if I have to be reduced to being a reseller to survive, I'll just close shop. But I don't see that happening. Sure, dial up will eventually be a niche service, and that's fine, as most of my revenue will be from other sources by the time that happens. If I ever have to become a dial up reseller, it will be because my core business has moved in another direction.
there will be single turnkey solutions for the end user / corporate environment that will be infinitely configurable to meet the latest trends and needs.
Are you in a marketing department of some BigCo? "Let's produce a single product that 100% of all customers can use, and that can change depending on the latest fad of the day, and we'll rule the marketplace!" If it were possible, wouldn't someone have already done that? It sounds like something that would make for a good Dilbert comic strip.
there will be no use for the small time 'innovator' or 'player' except in a purely academic environment.
You must be new to this game. :-) In Capitolism, there is always an innovator. They drive technology forward, and then the mainstream follows. You're under the false assumption that there will reach a point where there is nothing to innovate in the areas of last mile IP net access, and consolidation will make a single, regulated monopolistic provider. I think we know that scenario won't be allowed to happen. By the federal government regulators (I suppose that depends on the FCC), by state regulators, or competition/capitalism in general. BigCableCo, and BigTelco can fight over customers all they want, I'll be happy with the table scraps. And since "single miracle product that can be everything for everyone, and perfectly meets everyone's needs" doesn't exist, and won't ever exist, there will be plenty of scraps to be had. -Jerry