In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F@delong.com>, Owen DeLong write s:
On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =
=20 In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892@goat.gigo.com>, Jason = Fesler wr ites: populace
can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start = calling and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs. =20 Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the web=20=
sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even=20 remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial = at=20 $dayjob. =20 IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough = for that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the = internet to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles = (about 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage of the future network.
Owen
And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis. I would be quite happy to be proven wrong and only time will tell. -- Mark Andrews, ISC 1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742 INTERNET: marka@isc.org