Wait a sec, you seems to assume that the 'Doubling every 100 days" statement was referring to the Internet traffic not just UUNet traffic. My recollection was that the statement was referring to UUNet traffic based on the stats collected in a period of time (see my previous email). That is why I urged the author of the paper to make this important distinction. If one made a prediction based on stats collected and the prediction was not accurate due to the imperfection of stats (in this case, it may be caused by a short term growth abnormally, as Jeff Young pointed out), it is unfair to assume the person misled public on purpose. Thanks! --Jessica ________________________________ From: Kenny Sallee <kenny.sallee@gmail.com> To: Jessica Yu <jyy_99@yahoo.com>; Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu> Cc: nanog@nanog.org Sent: Mon, August 9, 2010 4:01:00 PM Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble On Fri, Aug 6, 2010 at 2:52 PM, Jessica Yu <jyy_99@yahoo.com> wrote: I do not know if making such distinction would alter the conclusion of your
paper. But, to me, there is a difference between one to predict the growth of one particular network based on the stats collected than one to predict the growth of the entire Internet with no solid data. Thanks!--Jessica
Agree with Jessica: you can't say the 'Internet' doubles every x number of days/amount of time no matter what the number of days or amount of time is. The 'Internet' is a series of tubes...hahaha couldn't help it....As we all know the Internet is a bunch of providers plugged into each other. Provider A may see an 10x increase in traffic every month while provider B may not. For example, if Google makes a deal with Verizon only Verizon will see a huge increase in traffic internally and less externally (or vice versa). Until Google goes somewhere else! So the whole 'myth' of Internet doubling every 100 days to me is something someone (ODell it seems) made up to appease someone higher in the chain or a government committee that really doesn't get it. IE - it's marketing talk to quantify something. I guess if all the ISP's in the world provided a central repository bandwidth numbers they have on their backbone then you could make up some stats about Internet traffic as a whole. But without that - it just doesn't make much sense. Just my .02 Kenny