Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote:

one of these curves is steeper than the other.

That's what we wanted for the first one.

http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step

http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step

If the slope on the second stays within some reasonable bounds of it's current trajactory then everything's cool, you buy new routers on schedule and the world moves on. The first one however will eventually kill us.

It won't, it will take an "S" shape eventually. Possibly around 120k prefixes, then it will follow the normal growth of the Internet as v4 did.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead - John Maynard Keynes

...

randy

-as