On Oct 1, 2015, at 15:28 , Mark Andrews <marka@isc.org> wrote:
In message <4F2E19BA-D92A-4BEC-86E2-33B405C307BE@delong.com>, Owen DeLong writes:
On Oct 1, 2015, at 13:55 , Grzegorz Janoszka <Grzegorz@Janoszka.pl> wrote:
On 2015-10-01 20:29, Owen DeLong wrote:
However, I think eventually the residential ISPs are going to start charging extra for IPv4 service.
ISP's will not charge too much. With too expensive IPv4 many customers will migrate from v4/dual stack to v6-only and ISP's will be left with unused IPv4 addresses and less income.
Nope… They’ll be left with unused IPv4 addresses which is not a significant source of income and they’ll be able to significantly reduce the costs incurred in supporting things like CGNAT.
Will ISP's still find other profitable usage for v4 addresses? If not, they will be probably be quite slowly rising IPv4 pricing, not wanting to overprice it.
Probably they will sell it to business customers instead of the residential customers. However, we’re talking about relatively large numbers of customers for relatively small numbers of IPv4 addresses that aren’t producing revenue directly at this time anyway.
Even with $1/IPv4/month - what will be the ROI of a brand new home router?
About 2.5 years at that price since a brand new home router is about $29.
Owen
The hard part is the internet connected TV's and other stuff which fetches content over the internet which are IPv4 only despite being released when IPv6 existed. These are theoretically upgradable to support IPv6 so long as the manufactures release a IPv6 capable image. The real question is will governments force them to do this.
Governments are unlikely to force this issue. However, what I think will happen (and I wish I had the hardware skills to build the device) is that someone will come up with a compact, cheap (think price of Raspberry PI) device with two 100Mbps ethernet ports. One will be an RJ45 plug and the other will be a socket. The socket will support POE for powering the device. The device will have a small linux kernel and provide DNS64/DHCP4/NAT64 services to the RJ45 plug and the jack will connect to the IPv6-only port in the house. The software is already completely available as open source. There’s a tiny bit of integration to do. If you do this for IPv6-capable services on the outside and don’t need to connect to IPv4 laggards, this is a relatively simple solution. If you need to preserve IPv4 connectivity to the outside world, it gets a little more complicated, but not a lot.
Upgrading the router is a no brainer. Upgrading the TV, games consoles, e-readers, etc. starts to add up.
I’m betting that if someone offered the device I suggested above for a price point around $40 (add a small amount of money for a cheap POE injector if needed), it would do the trick. Owen