"Tom Walton" writes:
You're assuming that the internet will persist in its current form, and just "scale up". I'd argue that, as network technology becomes useful for non-nerds, consumers will pay for packaged data services and not just for "access" to an expanded version of today's web-morass. These information services, e.g., entertainment, news, etc., will be big bandwidth burners. Simple economics will drive the providers of these high-bandwidth services to the edges of the network, and hence to a regional model for content distribution.
Simple economics would drive content providers NOT to get into the distribution business.
Thus, the majority of bits, if not the majority of net "accesses" (one ten minute video stream will likely dominate a residential consumer's daily consumption) reaching consumers will be delivered regionally.
Lets say we have a residential bandwidth on the order of several megabits -- not unreasonable in another five or ten years, especially given that current technology could provide it. Why would a short video dominate consumption, especially given that people watch a whole lot more than small amounts of video, and the net is likely to replace all other distribution media in the long run? I find your arguments fairly unpersuasive. Perry