this is still my favorite post on this subject: http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2011-February/031737.html t On Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 3:36 PM, staticsafe <me@staticsafe.ca> wrote:
On 4/23/2013 18:04, Leo Bicknell wrote:
In a message written on Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 05:41:40PM -0400, Valdis Kletnieks wrote:
I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper:
http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf
tl;dr: ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in August this year.
Here's a Geoff Houston report from 2005:
https://www.arin.net/participate/meetings/reports/ARIN_XVI/PDF/wednesday/hus...
I point to page 8, and the prediction "RIR Pool Exhaustion, 4 June 2013".
Those of us who paid attention are well prepared.
tl;dr: Real statistical models properly executed in 2005 were remarkably close to the reality 8 years later.
On that note, something Mr. Huston wrote more recently:
"A Primer on IPv4, IPv6 and Transition" http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2013-04/primer.html
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5586519
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