Is it not past time we admit that we have no real idea what the
schedule or level of effort will be for making IPv6 ubiquitous? This
year it was more than last year and next year it'll probably be more
than this year. The more precise predictions all seem to have fallen
flat.

The only way IPv6 will ever be ubiquitous is if there comes a time where there is some forcing event that requires it to be. 

Unless that occurs, people will continue to spend time and energy coming up with ways to squeeze the blood out of v4 that could have been used to get v6 going instead. I don't foresee anything changing for most of the rest of our careers, and possibly the next generation behind us. 

On Tue, Mar 8, 2022 at 4:13 PM William Herrin <bill@herrin.us> wrote:
On Tue, Mar 8, 2022 at 12:34 PM John Levine <johnl@iecc.com> wrote:
> FWIW, I also don't think that repurposing 240/4 is a good idea.  To be useful it would require
> that every host on the Internet update its network stack,

Hi John,

That's incorrect and obviously so. While repurposing 240/4 as general
purpose Internet addresses might require that level of effort, other
uses such as local LAN addressing would only require the equipment on
that one lan to be updated -- a much more attainable goal.

Reallocating 240/4 as unpurposed unicast address space would allow
some standards-compliant uses to become practical before others. A few
quite quickly.


> which would take on the order of
> a decade, to free up some space that would likely be depleted in a year or two.  It's basically
> the same amount of work as getting everything to work on IPv6.

Is it not past time we admit that we have no real idea what the
schedule or level of effort will be for making IPv6 ubiquitous? This
year it was more than last year and next year it'll probably be more
than this year. The more precise predictions all seem to have fallen
flat.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


--
William Herrin
bill@herrin.us
https://bill.herrin.us/