First, let me say that I think peering regulation is a terrible idea. No matter how cleverly you plan it, the result will be that fewer small companies can participate. That's the character of regulation: compliance creates more barriers to entry than it removes.
That having been said, jurisdiction is a red herring. Every transit-free provider does at least some of its business in the United States. Economic reality compels them to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That's all the hook the Feds need.
Have you kept in your mind that this may be changed in future? I know, we are talking in NANOG, but ... Some regions works on Internet development a bit faster than US and in future, this regulation may motivate some overseas players to stop peering in US. For example LINX and AMS-IX are good place to get peering in EU. Regards MK