On March 22, 2022 at 11:53 jmaimon@jmaimon.com (Joe Maimon) wrote:
25 years to not achieve global domination opens the door to become obsoleted before it does. Pretty sure that would be more bad than good.
Not uncommon, but the problem is: Obsoleted by what exactly? We're kind of in a similar situation as fossil fuel vs electric vehicles. We know we need to get rid of fossil fuel vehicles but electric cars, at least at this point, leave quite a bit to be desired like battery technology (materials needed, disposal, cost, electricity generation, etc.) The latter may not scale to the 1.4B vehicles needed globally. Thus far we have single digit percent* EVs and a tendency for those to be in the upper range of price ($60K-ish.) Like IPv6, but ok then what else? Maybe hydrogen fuel cell, maybe IPv8 or IPv4++...maybe, maybe congress will mandate all roads be downhill. They say necessity is the mother of invention but there are piles of dead bodies in history which never got past the necessity stage. Rocks, hard places, and all that. * If you check me don't confuse sales of new electrics vs per cent of vehicles in use. Though the trend seems encouraging we might hit a wall (e.g., scarce battery materials) or saturation (everyone who wants a $60K Tesla has one, it's a limited market.) -- -Barry Shein Software Tool & Die | bzs@TheWorld.com | http://www.TheWorld.com Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: +1 617-STD-WRLD | 800-THE-WRLD The World: Since 1989 | A Public Information Utility | *oo*