In a message written on Sun, Apr 18, 2010 at 10:22:25PM -0700, joel jaeggli wrote:
Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set in yet.
There is also an aspect of this transition I don't think we've seen before (in networking). A large percentage of end users are on technologies (cable modem, dsl, even dial up) who's configuration is entirely driven out of a provisioning database. Once the backbone is rolled out, the nameservers, dhcp, and configuration servers dual-stacked many ISP's could enable IPv6 for all of their customers overnight with only a few keystrokes. Now they won't literally do it that way to save their support folks, but if the need arises they will be able to push the button quite quickly. I suspect the middle part of this S curve is going to be much, much steeper than anyone is predicting right now. -- Leo Bicknell - bicknell@ufp.org - CCIE 3440 PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/