Won't Starlink and other LEO configurations be that backstop sooner
rather than later?

Unlikely. They will remain niche. The economics don't make sense for those services to completely replace terrestrial only service. 

Why would they put up 40000 satellites if their ambition is only niche? I mean, I get that Musk is sort of a cuckoo bird but say what you will he does have big ambitions.

From my standpoint, they don't have to completely replace the incumbents. I'd be perfectly happy just keeping them honest.

As I mentioned elsewhere, I'm not sure that the current economics are the real economics. I'm pretty sure they've been purposefully throttling demand because they still don't have the capacity so it would make sense to overcharge in the mean time. Is there something inherent in their cpe that makes them much more expensive than, say, satellite tv dishes? I can see marginally more because of the LEO aspect, but isn't that mainly just software? It wouldn't surprise me that the main cost is the truck roll.

Mike

On Fri, Jun 16, 2023 at 4:17 PM Michael Thomas <mike@mtcc.com> wrote:

On 6/16/23 1:09 PM, Mark Tinka wrote:
>
>
> On 6/16/23 21:19, Josh Luthman wrote:
>> Mark,
>>
>> In my world I constantly see people with 0 fixed internet options. 
>> Many of these locations do not even have mobile coverage. 
>> Competition is fine in town, but for millions of people in the US
>> (and I'm going to assume it's worse or comparable in CA/MX) there is
>> no service.
>>
>> As a company primarily delivering to residents, competition is not a
>> focus for us and for the urban market it's tough to survive on a ~1/3
>> take rate.
>
> I should have been clearer... the lack of competition in many markets
> is not unique to North America. I'd say all of the world suffers that,
> since there is only so much money and resources to go around.
>
> What I was trying to say is that should a town or village have the
> opportunity to receive competition, where existing services are
> capped, uncapping that via an alternative provider would be low
> hanging fruit to gain local marketshare. Of course, the alternative
> provider would need to show up first, but that's a whole other thread.
>
Won't Starlink and other LEO configurations be that backstop sooner
rather than later? I don't know if they have caps as well, but even if
they do they could compete with their caps.

Mike