JORDI PALET MARTINEZ via NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> writes:
It comes from actual measurements in residential networks that already offer IPv6.
In typical residential networks, a very high % of the traffic is Google/Youtube, Netflix, Facebook, CDNs, etc., which all are IPv6 enabled.
I wonder about that... In our small corner of the world, Tore has these useful measurements from a dual stack "high volume" web site (a local newspaper). This is a mix of enterprise and residential users on all types of access (ethernet, HFC, GPON, DSL, pigeon): https://munin.fud.no/vg.no/www.vg.no/vg_ds_telenor.html These users have had native dual stack (DHCPv6-PD + DHCP) for 5+ years. And most of them use their operator provided CPEs where dual-stack is enabled by default. Still, as you can see, only 50% of the clients end up using IPv6. I don't know why, but assume this is caused by the client systems behind the CPE. Either they don't support IPv6 or the users have disabled it.
Typically, is also similar in mobile networks, and this has been confirmed also by measurements in v6ops mailing list, for example from T-Mobile. If I recall correctly that was 3-4 years ago and was already 75% IPv6 traffic.
Yes, for traditional mobile (i.e handsets) the picture is completely different. Same view shows an average of 85% IPv6 on mobile access: https://munin.fud.no/vg.no/www.vg.no/vg_ds_telenor_mobil.html Note that the last 3G cell was switched off in January 2021 in this network, eliminating any client older than 10 years in practice (2G is still supported, but... well, it's not going to show up on traffic volume measurments).
Enterprises usually have a lower IPv6 %, so actual numbers in a given ISP my depend on the ratio of enterprise/residential customers. It may also depend on the case of residentials, on the age of SmartTVs, which may not be IPv6 enabled.
Yes, this will also affect the first measurement since it is a mix of enterprise/residential. But the majority is residential, as this relative volume by time of day clearly shows: https://munin.fud.no/vg.no/www.vg.no/vg_ipv6_telenor.html In any case, I'll claim it's hard for a fixed access provider to achive much more than 50% IPv6 volume today. We'll have to start disabling IPv4 to get better results than that. Mobile is a different animal, with client systems being replaced constantly. Bjørn