Perhaps that middle ground is a mix of these 2 things?
Perhaps. But what we currently seem to believe is that current routing table growth is dominated by traffic engineering and multihoming. If future routing is to scale better than today, then we need some strong forces that push for conservation.
I'm not sure I agree that the end state is 100% multihoming. I can certainly agree that more multihoming is coming. Many more people are pushing for multihoming today than in previous years, apparently telco instability (financial not technical) is/has driven this :) (among other things I'm sure)
I wasn't suggesting that the end state is 100% multihoming, but I do think that it will grow to well over the 10% factor that we used in years past. I agree that there is much more push for multihoming thanks to the connectivity issues that we've seen, both due to financially driven and backhoe driven causes. The increased reliance of society on the Internet in general also helps us to go there and the increase in wireless access makes multihoming of small sites in a metro virtually trivial. Tony