On Tuesday, April 09, 1996 3:51 PM, Michael Dillon[SMTP:michael@memra.com] wrote: @On Tue, 9 Apr 1996, Srinivasarao Mulugu wrote: @ <snip> @ @> Well, one study I came across talks about a major shake-out over @> the next few years resulting in about 200 ISPs by 2000. It projects @> a decline in the number of ISPs beginning early 1997. @> <snip> @ @That's right. The Internet market and the Internet industry is still @growing by leaps and bounds. In order for a significant shakeout to @occur, that exponential growth curve has to level off. Even then there is @every possibility that there will be plenty of room for the small local ISP @especially when you understand how an ISP operation can be integrated @with a number of other computer/networking oriented businesses. @ @Michael Dillon Voice: +1-604-546-8022 Also, ISPs of the future may not look like ISPs as we know them. For example, I have spoken to churches that want to install a rack of modems and provide dial-up service and e-mail to their congregation. Many of their people are not pleased having their e-mail being spooled at an ISP that browses through their messages. Their church becomes their "ISP". Not only do these churches want to provide traditional services, they also want to use real audio and other voice add-ons to broadcast their services. Special services for seniors are also being considered, such as monitoring for activity in their homes and the dispatching of people to the home if no packets are flowing to check if something is wrong. Another area where ISP growth will occur is in special interest group ISPs. Some groups may choose to provide "free" dial-up service in return for collecting statistics, market research, doing advertising, etc. Also, certain promotions and sweepstakes could be tied to free access via ISPs. For people that only want to use the Internet for a limited set of functions, an ISP could provide free service via a highly subsidized existing business. Stock brokerages and banks are obvious "vendors" that could provide selected customers with free or low-cost access. Some large banks already provide customers with free limos why not free Internet access? No matter what happens, Internet Access will be driven to a commodity pricing level as people and companies discover that they can provide a minimum number of services and still look good because of the synergy of the Internet. This may end if large information providers find that they can market their publications to selected ISPs that are willing to pay a small subscription fee based on the number of users supported by the ISP. This may cause a shake-out if ISPs find that they can not afford the fees and subscribers decide to go where the information flows freely or where truly unique services are offered via ISPs that have an exclusive for the region. -- Jim Fleming UNETY Systems, Inc. Naperville, IL 60563 e-mail: JimFleming@unety.net