Say, for argument, that WorldCom/MCI merger will result in its control of 60% of the Internet's backbone traffic (measured, perhaps, as a percentage of IP packets taken from all ingress "access ISPs" and provided to all egress "access ISPs").
This "if" is just too big to be meaningful. I dispute that the number is as high as 60%. I also dispute the use of the word "control" since carrying Internet traffic does not imply any sort of control. If you are looking for control points, look to the web server operators and content providers like CNN and Yahoo. I also dispute your proposal for measuring "the Internet's backbone traffic". There is no doubt that the figures you suggest measuring would be interesting figures but I think it is grossly incorrect to characterize them as "the Internet's backbone traffic" and I know that it is currently impossible to come anywhere near to measuring these figures. Basically the fears of dominance are unfounded for a variety of reasons. One is that the Internet is still growing at a tremendous rate and it is well nigh impossible to dominate something that is on such a growth curve. It's hard enough just to keep up. Another reason to have no fear is that new entrants are continually entering the various markets for backbone circuits and it is always possible that a new upstart will take over. Studying the history of radio in the twenties and thirties will point out some possibilities. But the biggest reason to have no fear is that integrated diverse companies into one company or diverse networks into one network is very, very hard to do. This merger is not a shoe-in. Many of us have had dealings with one or more of the merged companies, we know people who work for these companies, we have friends in the industry who have business dealings with these companies. They have a lot of problems to work through and so far they are not doing as well as they need to be in order to successfully execute such a merger. Some other companies appear to be doing a better job at integrating acquisitions and those are the ones I would watch closely in the future.
Does, for example, Qwest's planned deployment of a fiber infrastructure to become the "World's Biggest Internet Backbone" (WebWeek, Vol. 3, Issue 37, Nov. 10, 1997, p. 1) make such fears unfounded?
Qwest is really a whole different animal. They are putting glass in the ground and selling it to other companies who want to transfer IP packets through that glass. The key thing here is that Qwest's deployment has just about erased fears of an impending fiber shortage. We still may have problems in certain areas but on the whole it now appears that there will be plenty of glass to light up when we need it. And Qwest is not the only company doing this. ******************************************************** Michael Dillon voice: +1-650-482-2840 Senior Systems Architect fax: +1-650-482-2844 PRIORI NETWORKS, INC. http://www.priori.net "The People You Know. The People You Trust." ********************************************************