Den 09/07/2015 18.08 skrev "Owen DeLong" <owen@delong.com>:
That will never happen. If you offer me $1000 per IPv4, then I will happily terminate some user contracts and sell their IP space to you…
Eventually, you run out of user contracts to terminate.
At $1000 per contract I do not care. I will retire and be happy. Seriously ISPs are often valued by number of active contracts. A typical value might be $100 to $200. The value of an IPv4 address can not go any higher than this because at that point you can buy another company just to get the addresses.
In fact it will never become even that expensive. With a marked price of $10 I am buying IP space for customers as needed and I will include free space in the contracts. If the price went to $100 I would tell all users that they need to pay monthly rent for their IP or alternative, the user would have to accept carrier NAT in some form. And then I would proceed
buy a new house for the money I make by selling address space.
Sure, but aren’t your customers going to start demanding IPv6 instead of
to that at some point? My customers have been demanding IPv6 for some time already.
Aren’t they going to start insisting on a service that doesn’t charge per
address? They will have their free IPv6 and will care less about a non shared IPv4. This will cause the valuation of IPv4 to crash at some point because the demand will disappear.
There is a ton of address space that is inefficient used. We will be
able
to buy excess from companies that "create" space by optimizing their existing space. There is a reason we have not seen any rise in the price even after multiple years with depletion in large parts of the world.
Yes… It’s called “soft landing”… ARIN will be the first region to deplete without significant austerity policies for newcomers to get address space.
RIPE gives you 1k addresses. This is not enough even for two guys and a router. But yes it is a nice token. The big companies have now gone without new space for a while. Just a few months ago I bought 2k addresses at $6 per address. I do not observe any rising tendency in IPv4 pricing. Regards Baldur