On Wed, 12 Oct 2005, Randy Bush wrote:
if you look at the recent ipv4 burn rate of ripe and apnic especially, we run out of v4 space in about three years. this should not be surprising, as it matches what frank was saying a decade ago at ale.
so having dual stack backbones is very important. but ...
four years from now, when marissa can't get v4 space from an rir/lir and so gets v6 space, she will not be able to use 99% of the internet because no significant number of v4 end hosts will have bothered to be v6 enabled because there was no perceived market for it.
I think more likely is the scenario where Marissa would get NATed IPv4 address (NAT server at the ISP end) and one or more direct IPv6 addresses. The question would then be if Marissa is likely to use the kind of applications where the direct address would become very important to her, but so far from what I know of DSL users, most are just fine behind their home NAT firewalls and only few need direct addresses. But of those "few" many are those doing P2P sharing especially with BitTorent and this application requires open port on the user end, so in fact P2P and BT may prove to be the cornerstone to getting wider use of IPv6 after we ran out of v4 space... -- William Leibzon Elan Networks william@elan.net