I asked this question to a couple of folks:
"at the current churn rate/ration, at what size doe the FIB need to be before it will not converge?"
and got these answers:
--------- jabber log --------- a fine question, has been asked many times, and afaik noone has provided any empirically grounded answer.
a few realities hinder our ability to answer this question.
(1) there are technology factors we can't predict, e.g., moore's law effects on hardware development
Moore's Law is only half of the equation. It is the part that deals with route churn & the rate at which those can be processed (both peer notification and control-plane programming data-plane in the form of FIB changes). Moore's Law almost has zero relevance to FIB sizes. It doesn't map to growth in SRAM or innovations/mechanisms for how to reduce the requirements for SRAM while growing FIB sizes. cheers, lincoln.