ok. I think a bunch of the analysis so far in this thread has basically assumed dense packing at teh ISP and RIR level.. which really won't happen, in practice anyway. I was simply stating that if we follow some of the examples today it's no where near as certain (I think) that '200' is ok to assume.
200 might be optimistic, agreed. I think 100 is pretty well assured absent something much more profligate than current policies.
A larger point is: "so what?”
Agreed.
we've run a number conversion / renumbering once... we can do it again, better the second time, right? :) Maybe this next time we'll even plan based on lessons learned in the v4 -> v6 slog?
Technically, we’ve run one, we’re running a second one now, and yeah, hopefully lessons learned can play a part. Of course this also ignores the third transition which included a numbering transition as enterprises went from running everything else (x.25, vines, IPX, DECNET, AppleTalk, etc.) to IP. Owen