Our fundamental issue is that an IPv4 address has no real value as networks still give them away, it's pennies in your pocket. Everything of use needs to have a cost to motivate for change. Establishing that now won't create change it will first create greater conservation. There will be a cost that will be reached before change takes place on a scale that matters. Networks set the false perception and customer expectation that address space is free and readily available. Networks with plenty, still land many customers today by handing over a class C to customer with less than 10 servers and 5 people in an office. We have a greater supply for packets to travel than we do for addresses required to move packets. Do you know how many packets a single IP address can generate or utilize, if it was attached too "The World's Fastest Internet" in someplace like Canadaland or Sweden on init7's Fiber7 ? No matter how large the pipe the answer is always, "all of it". It's address space we should now place a price upon. Unlike, My Space's disappearance when Facebook arrived there is no quick jump to IPv6. There is no coordinated effort required that involves millions of people to change browser window content. But to answer your question... Everything that is handed over for free is perceived as having no value. Therefore, IPv4 has to cost much more than the cost to change to IPv6 today. While the IPv6 addresses are free, it is expensive to change. Businesses spend lots of money on a free lunches. It's going to take at least the price of one good lunch per IP address per month to create the consideration for change. That's about $30 for 2 people in California. Offering a /48 of free IPv6 space to everyone on the planet didn't make it happen. There is no financial incentive to move to IPv6. In fact there is more reason "not to change" than "to change". The new gear cost $$$ (lots of it didn't work well and required exploration to learn that), IT people need hours to implement (schedules are full of day-to-day issues), networks keep growing with offerings that drop Internet costs and save everyone money, business as usual is productive on IPv4 (business doesn't have time for distraction), many of us get distracted by something more immediate and interesting than buying a new wi-fi router for the home. What will come first ? A) the earths future core rotation changes altering the ionosphere in such a way that we are all exposed to continuous x-rays that shorten our lifespan OR B) the last IPv4 computer running will be reconfigured to IPv6 Thank You Bob Evans CTO
Randy,
How long do you think it will take to completely get rid of IPv4? Or is it even going to happen at all?
On Sat, Jun 27, 2015 at 4:57 AM, Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
the rirs have run out of their free source of short ints to rent to us. i am sure everyone will move to ipv6 in a week. news at eleven.
randy