On 02/02/2011, at 1:11 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
On Feb 1, 2011, at 3:54 PM, Lee Howard wrote:
"People won't be able to access our site" sure helps but being unable to put a date on it still reduces incentive (especially when Management get involved, and especially if there is a financial outlay involving firewalls etc.).
Geoff generously provided a probabilistic sense for RIR runout: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg Pick your RIR and plot its runout date. If it's ARIN, then the first ISP is out of IPv4 addresses at most three months later (since ARIN now allocates for three months' need). Of course, if demand increases, these dates might change.
Will users be unable to reach your content on $RIR_runout_date + 3? They might have to get there through large-scale NAT. That might bother management if you rely on IP geo-location, or need to initiate connections downstream, or rate limit per IP address, or have anti-DOS techniques measuring hits per source IP address, or have employees VPN in, or need to report intrusions, or any of the many problems widely documented.
Oh, and when I said to pick your RIR, I meant the RIR of users who access your content.
Lee
I think there is a key problem with Geoff's graph.
I think it fails to take into account the transitive probability of requests among the largest 3 regions. I agree that APNIC will probably run just about exactly as he predicts. I think, however, that the runout at APNIC will create a higher demand in ARIN and RIPE. Once that happens, their runout dates will get moved up much closer to the runout date of APNIC. As soon as the second of the three runs out, the remaining one will get another burst of acceleration.
It does not appear to me that this probability is accounted for in the plots.
Owen
(Including Geoff because it's not fair to criticize his work behind his back)
Yes - a certain (X) percent of demand will shift out from a region once that region's stocks are depleted. What value X realistically takes is not something I can factor into these models, nor can I predict where this unmet demand may surface in the remaining regions. The future of IPv4 contains many uncertainties. Geoff