On Fri, Feb 11, 2011 at 10:00 AM, Scott Helms <khelms@ispalliance.net> wrote:
Agreed, V4 traffic levels are likely to drop and stay at low levels for decades.
I seriously doubt v4 traffic is going to fall off a cliff. That would require IPv6 adoption on a large scale over a relatively short period. To date, nothing in the v6 verse has happened *quickly*. Replacement or software upgrades to millions of CPEs in hundreds of network is not something that will happen overnight. Even then, that will not instantly switch everyone and every device to IPv6. How many "connected" devices do you think there are in the average home? TV? DVR (stb)? Game console(s)? Netflix streaming thing? If you're using Windows 7, you're already "IPv6 connected"... IPv6 is installed by default (and in fact cannot be uninstalled) and configured with Teredo. So a lot of people could be using v6 already and not even know it.
Facebook ... So that's 55% of Internet traffic right there.
and making a dent in it means residential transition. 50mil (or 83mil) devices is a lot of shit to replace or reprogram. Not to forget the thousands of devices that feed them.
... mobile devices
i.e. cellphones... the two largest groups there (iPhone and Android) support IPv6 already. (in certain versions) I was saying the same thing about netflix. PC based streaming can already be done via IPv6. (ipv6.netflix.com?) I'm not sure any of my media devices (tv, consoles, tivo) can do IPv6. I'd be disappointed if SONY didn't have the PS3 doing v6. Tivo doesn't do v6 -- unless the premier does. DTV receiver doesn't. DISH doesn't. (Wii, don't care. :-)) --Ricky