My position is a bit more subtle than I stated. I tend to forget I can and should be more nuanced on this particular list. First, there is very little cost to any large tech company to state a date that they expect to turn off IPv4 for certain services. "To get our free xyz service after January 1, 2028, you'll need to be on a provider that supports IPv6". The tech companies can then push out that deadline if they don't see enough adoption as the deadline approaches. There are, of course, risks related to consumers switching to other alternatives prior to the date and also various other reputation and legal risks. But I suspect that can be managed in a way that minimizes the risks. But the point here is that the setting of a possible IPv4 shutoff date is likely to accelerate IPv6 adoption even if they never actually shut off IPv4. I guess if one was to abstract the above out at a very high level it would be to say that about the easiest way that I can see to further accelerate IPv6 adoption is to either start to provide certain desirable services only over IPv6 or at least threaten to do so. The Googles of the world just happen to be in the best position to do just that and may have a financial motivation to do so (if they can do so without negatively impacting their bottom line). On Sat, Jan 13, 2024, 12:42 AM Giorgio Bonfiglio <me@grg.pw> wrote:
2) Assume that Google decided that they would no longer support IPv4 for any of their services at a specific date a couple of years in the future. […] I really expect something like this to be the next part of the end game for IPv4.
It’s never gonna happen … why would Google, or any other internet property, launch something which artificially cuts the potential revenue pool to IPv6-ready customers?
I’m with you it would be amazing and a strong driver, but it’s just not in the realm of possibility…