This Forbes article (http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2012/08/21/will-google-fiber-waste-2 8-billion/) expresses some well-founded skepticism. As someone who works for a service provider that does both town and rural FTTH, I can assure you that the $2,500 (per home served?) the FCC describes is on the low side in a rural area. I guess it's profitable to Google if one considers the buildout a sunk cost. Frank -----Original Message----- From: Benjamin Krueger [mailto:benjamin@seattlefenix.net] Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2012 8:47 PM To: Jimmy Hess Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: Fair Use Policy A unique position? Unlike those poor residential ISPs who only have literally millions of subscribers to use as leverage in peering negotiations. Perhaps more accurately, rather than saying "Google can afford to start almost any project they want" we should say "Google doesn't suffer the temptation of wringing every last penny out of their aging infrastructure to ensure maximum profits from minimal investments". I don't want to turn this into a long-drawn debate, so I'll simply say that I take Google at their word when they say this is profitable from Day 1 and I surely take their product offering at its word. I'm not sure who proposed we require anything, but I suppose we can let the market decide what ISPs are "required" to do. I can say that I don't know anyone who wouldn't drop any existing residential service for what Google is selling. Perhaps they will succumb to some unforeseen boogeyman as you allude to, but to be honest that sounds a whole lot like the wishful thinking of an industry that has been deftly out-manueverd at its own game and now finds itself dramatically behind the curve. Frankly, if I were in the ISP business I would be shitting my pants. On Aug 22, 2012, at 6:05 PM, Jimmy Hess wrote:
On 8/22/12, Benjamin Krueger <benjamin@seattlefenix.net> wrote:
Yeah, totally can't be done. It especially can't be done profitably.
Google can afford to start almost any project they want, and they are in a unique position to negotiate peering and access to a ton of bandwidth, with their Youtube, Google Search et al. As to whether it will be profitable, well, obviously, that is their claim. It's yet to be demonstrated.
I gotta reject the idea that broadband providers should be required to follow in Google's footsteps though.
For now, Google fiber is another risky experiment, that could have a great payout if successful, or could be shuttered within a year or so, or fees/rate incs tacked on, when they figure out just what a mess they have gotten into.
http://gigaom.com/2012/07/26/the-economics-of-google-fiber-and-what-it-means -for-u-s-broadband/
-- -JH